Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
After 8 Terrific Weeks for Stocks, What’s Next? - 16th Feb 19
My Favorite Real Estate Strategies: Rent to Live, Buy to Rent - 16th Feb 19
Schumer & Sanders Want One Thing: Your Money - 16th Feb 19
What Could Happen When the Stock Markets Correct Next - 16th Feb 19
Bitcoin Your Best Opportunity Outside of Stocks - 16th Feb 19
Olympus TG-5 Tough Camera Under SEA Water Test - 16th Feb 19
"Mi Amigo" Sheffield Bomber Crash Memorial Site Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 VR360 - 16th Feb 19
Plunging Inventories have Zinc Bulls Ready to Run - 15th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders - 15th Feb 19
Retail Sales Crash! It’s 2008 All Over Again for Stock Market and Economy! - 15th Feb 19
Is Gold Market 2019 Like 2016? - 15th Feb 19
Virgin Media's Increasingly Unreliable Broadband Service - 15th Feb 19
2019 Starting to Shine But is it a Long Con for Stock Investors? - 15th Feb 19
Gold is on the Verge of a Bull-run and Here's Why - 15th Feb 19
Will Stock Market 2019 be like 1999? - 14th Feb 19
3 Charts That Scream “Don’t Buy Stocks” - 14th Feb 19
Capitalism Isn’t Bad, It’s Just Broken - 14th Feb 19
How To Find High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Safe - 14th Feb 19
Strategy Session - How This Stocks Bear Market Fits in With Markets of the Past - 14th Feb 19
Marijuana Stocks Ready for Another Massive Rally? - 14th Feb 19
Wage Day Advance And Why There is No Shame About It - 14th Feb 19
Will 2019 be the Year of the Big Breakout for Gold? - 13th Feb 19
Earth Overshoot Day Illustrates We are the Lemmings - 13th Feb 19
A Stock Market Rally With No Pullbacks. What’s Next for Stocks - 13th Feb 19
Where Is Gold’s Rally in Response to USD Weakness? - 13th Feb 19
US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move - 12th Feb 19
Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors - 12th Feb 19
Socialist “Green New Deal” Points the Way to Hyperinflation - 12th Feb 19
Trump’s Quest to Undermine Multilateral Development Banks - 12th Feb 19
Sheffield B17 US Bomber Crash 75th Anniversary Fly-past on 22nd February 2019 Full Details - 12th Feb 19
The 2 Rules For Successful Trading - 12th Feb 19 -
Financial Sector Calls Gold ‘Shiny Poo.’ Are They Worried? - 11th Feb 19
Stocks Bouncing, but Will They Resume the Uptrend? - 11th Feb 19
EURO Crisis Set to Intensify: US Dollar Breakout Higher
Stock Market Correction Starting? - 10th Feb 19
Gold Stocks Gather Steam - 10th Feb 19
Are Gold Bulls Naively Optimistic? - 9th Feb 19
Gold, Silver Precious Metals Update - 9th Feb 19
The Wealthy Should Prepare to Be Soaked - 8th Feb 19
US Business Confidence Is Starting to Crack - 8th Feb 19
Top Myths and Facts about ULIP Plans - 8th Feb 19
A Major Stocks Bear Market in 2020? - 8th Feb 19
Gold Market Extremes Test Your Mettle - 8th Feb 19
The Venezuela Myth Keeping Us From Transforming Our Economy - 8th Feb 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Real Secret for Successful Trading

Gold Going to Parabolic Top of $10,000 by 2012 For Good Reasons

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jun 13, 2010 - 10:05 AM GMT

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNo wishful thinking here! As I see it gold is going to a parabolic top of $10,000 by 2012 for very good reasons - sovereign debt defaults, bankruptcies of “too big to fail” banks and other financial entities, currency inflation and devaluations - which will all contribute to rampant price inflation.


Not surprisingly, I have company in that view:
 
Money manager, Peter Schiff, told Business Week recently that, "Gold could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years” and highly respected economist David Rosenberg is of the opinion that "There is no doubt that gold can easily double from here."

THE CAUSES

1. History is No Guide
Gold has only been trading freely since President Nixon's 1971 decision to deny gold to the French and others attempting to repatriate their paper dollars for the metal.  As such, there has been a scant forty years of gold production and trading since it was detached from supporting paper money. This period has also been marked by substantially higher monetary and price inflation as well as currency devaluation.

2. Market Manipulation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a major hearing which blew the doors off bullion metals futures trading markets in terms of what was revealed publically. I predict this public hearing will be viewed in the period ahead as the precious metals price liberation event of the decade.

It is commonly known that JP Morgan Chase in the major player in commodities futures markets trading. Not only do they take massive naked short positions (betting that prices will fall), they do it with large substantial leverage.  What isn't as well known though is that Chase acts as the agent for the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks in 'managing' the markets on their behalf. Central banks want 'orderly' precious metals markets and prices and currencies which don't gyrate wildly. Only then can they achieve stealth inflation in their monetary policy which is so beneficial in servicing debt.  It also makes for good (meaning effective) politics. 

3. Insufficient Physical Inventories
While it is normal for traders to roll their expiring contracts over into new paper trades, some traders accept cash in settlement rather than the metal. To the amazement of everyone the recent hearing of the CFTC - specifically Jeff Christensen’s comments - inadvertently confirmed that there is little bullion in storage at the London Metals Exchange or New York's COMEX to back the metals trading. He justified this fact by noting that only one ounce of one hundred traded is paid out in physical metal. This revelation confirmed a much worse reality than even critics, such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), had expected. It seems that the Asian and Mid East buyers and owners of bullion have been removing gold from their dealers’ vaults and are taking it "home" thus leaving much less than previously thought in the London, New York and Toronto vaults. 

In addition to what looks like a production peak in the gold mining industry (production has fallen in 5 of the last 8 years), central banks have for the first time recently become net purchasers (having bought more gold last year – 425 tons – than at any time since 1964).
 
The single largest purchasers of metal these days, other than central banks, are the bullion ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) which ostensibly have their metal inventories in vaults. These relatively new investment vehicles, unfortunately, are not transparent in their business practices. Regular audits by reputable accounting firms and allocated and segregated bullion inventories stored in reputable vaults are opaque at best. This begs the question: “Do the large ETF bullion funds actually have the metal they purport to own, or is their inventory more the 'paper gold' variety in which bullion trading exchanges seem to specialize?”

THE EFFECT

  1. The revelation, outlined above, that there is insufficient physical inventory to meet new investment demand for ownership and delivery of physical bullion, is about to blow the price lid skyward.
  2. As public awareness of sovereign debt mounts, it will drive home the reality of mounting government insolvency. 
  3. Confidence in currencies will wilt commensurately.  
  4. Investment demand for real gold and real money as a safe haven investment will expand exponentially. 
  5. These events should take place from mid 2011 through 2012 and extend further out toward 2015 before demand is satiated.
  6. The dramatic price increases in gold and silver will at that point also satisfy the unstated desire of central banks and politicians to devalue their currencies in order to assist them in meeting their debt and unfunded liabilities. 

After the 2008/2009 crash, governments bailed out their failing financial institutions and investment banks through a variety of innovative measures. The next time round most governments will not be in a position to do so – again. Even more troubling, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) will not be capable of rescuing the increasing number of insolvent governments and their financial institutions.

Conclusion
You may think my aforementioned views are crazy or perhaps just that my imagination is way out of hand or, at best, that I don’t have access to the appropriate reality checks. Be that as it may, I am increasingly confident that the consequences of fragile sovereign debt, precious metals market manipulation, insufficient physical supply, and the need for a safe haven investment refuge, will drive precious metals bullion and mining stock to unimagined heights.

The circumstances immediately ahead are largely unprecedented. History is therefore only marginally useful as our guide to the future price of precious metals. We are now in genuinely unchartered territory.

Get yourself positioned to take advantage of this event of a lifetime. Protect your assets from the next and more serious leg of the 'Greater Depression' directly ahead.  Get a running start NOW on growing your future wealth.

Arnold Bock is a frequent contributor to both www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (F.A.S.T.) and www.MunKnee.com (Money, Monnee, Munknee!) and an economic analyst and financial writer. He is also a frequent contributor to this site and can be reached at editor@munknee.com."

© 2010 Copyright Lorimer Wilson- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Lorimer Wilson Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules