Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Crash Edition - 26th Mar 19
Handy Ways to Boost Your Home Income - 26th Mar 19
US Treasury Bond Yield Inversion and Political Fed Cycles - 26th Mar 19
Golan Heights Oil all about the Shekels - 26th Mar 19
Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst - 26th Mar 19
Can We Lock Up Rachel Maddow Now? - 25th Mar 19
Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion - 25th Mar 19
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? - 25th Mar 19
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Stock Market Stalls At Resistance

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 18, 2010 - 03:28 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleU.S. stocks rose as a late-day rally in technology, consumer-staples and industrial companies helped the market overcome an early slump spurred by economic reports that cast doubts on the strength of the recovery.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.1 percent to 1,116.01 at 4 p.m. in New York and remained above its 200-day average for a third day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 24.71 points, or 0.2 percent, to 10,434.17, erasing a drop of as much as 90 points. Both gauges did not turn higher until the final minutes of trading.

Did the BP Oil Well Really Blow Out in February, Instead of April? The Deepwater Horizon blew up on April 20th, and sank a couple of days later. BP has been criticized for failing to report on the seriousness of the blow out for several weeks. However, as a whistleblower previously told 60 Minutes, there was an accident at the rig a month or more prior to the April 20th explosion.As Bloomberg reports today, problems at the well actually started in February: “BP Plc was struggling to seal cracks in its Macondo well as far back as February, more than two months before an explosion killed 11 and spewed oil into the Gulf of Mexico.”

That may explain Goldman’s and the BP executives’ massive sale of shares in March. ICI Reports Another Massive Equity Outflow (ZeroHedge) As we predicted previously, in the past week domestic equity mutual funds experienced another whopper of a redemption. ICI reports that for the week ended June 9, domestic equity mutual funds saw $3.7 billion in outflows, 3 times the prior week's outflow, the sixth sequential outflow in a row, and $27 billion in outflows year to date.

The VIX makes a new low.

-- It seems as if the VIX and the dollar are paired together in their cycles. Both have pivot days due tomorrow. The VIX remains below its intermediate-term Trend Support at 31.18 today. We had been due for a Trading Cycle low last Friday, but it seems that the VIX is off by a full pivot cycle. It may have to do with options expiration, since a decline in equities this week would have caused a lot of damage.

The CBOE Put-Call Ratio for equities ($CPCE) rose to .89 today. The pros remained resumed a neutral position in the $CPCI at .94 at the end of the day. The 10- day average is still 1.44. The NYSE Hi-Lo index closed up 16 points today to 44. The Hi-Lo index remains in bearish territory. Bullish territory begins at 95.

SPY remain stalled above intermediate-term Resistance.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- The SPY stayed above intermediate-term Trend Resistance at 111.55 today. There is strong overhead Model and Fibonacci Resistance at 113.20-113.26, although SPY may not choose to challenge it. All of the common wave relationships have been met in this rally, so technically it is finished. Monday’s pivot day was also the top of a five-wave pattern. What happened since then appears to be a double zig-zag extension. This may have served two purposes. First, to fill the gap left in the May decline, and second, to keep shares elevated through options week.

QQQQ closes above intermediate-term Trend Resistance.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- Today QQQQ made a small gain above its intermediate-term Trend Resistance at 46.25 again. The rally in the last half-hour to close the market on a positive note is something one would expect in a market like this. Notice how we are not getting any more “sneak peeks” into expected earnings due to be released next month. I wonder why?

XLF stalled below Resistance.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- XLF remains stalled just below its intermediate-term Trend Resistance at 14.97. The very weak rally gives many indications that it may be finished here as an irregular correction.

Today’s action left a probable reversal pattern in both the hourly and daily charts. Remember, XLF has been the “lead dog” in the decline.

FXI makes a small pullback.

Action: Buy/Long -- FXI took a rest in its rally as shortterm Trend Support rose to 39.60 today. Short-term Trend Support has made a bullish cross. Although I do not expect a larger correction yet, there is a good probability that shortterm Trend Support will be our safety net for a while, now that the rally is underway. $SSEC has attempted to cross shortterm Trend Resistance at 2573, but has not yet succeeded.

GLD’s attempted a breakout.

Action: Buy/Long -- GLD very nearly succeeded at its attempted break-out today. It remains above its short-term Trend Support at 120.13. It’s funny what a 24-hour time span in the market will do. Two observations come to mind. The first is that the GLD cycle seems to be paired with TLT, its diametric opposite. You almost have to be a manic-depressive to own both. The second item is that GLD could have a nice run once it breaks out again. However, 126 is a strong resistance area. I would like to see what happens when GLD gets there.

USO back-tested its trendline.

Action: Sell/Short/Inverse -- USO eased down from a back-test of its year-old bearish wedge trendline to its intermediate-term Trend Resistance at 34.97, giving credence that the rally is all but over. It just happens that Cycle Resistance is at 35.70 as well. The reversal pattern in the hourly chart got its follow-through today. The wave pattern is also complete.

USO may be entering a prolonged decline that could last up to six weeks, since the next Primary Cycle low is scheduled to come in the last week of July.

TLT emerged above its triangle pattern.

Action: Buy/Long -- TLT has emerged above its triangle pattern and short-term Trend Support at 97.10. The triangle pattern virtually assures new highs with a minimum potential target of 100.70. My model still suggests a high of 105.40. However, the 61.8% retracement level is 104.20. Another major newsletter is calling for an even higher number, but I will stick to my range for now. The message for now is that TLT will make a new high before we must be concerned about a reversal.

UUP prepares for a pivot day.

Action: Buy/Long -- UUP pulled back below intermediate-term Trend Support at 25.11 today. It has also made a reversal pattern using Cycle Support at 24.90 today. The next UUP pivot is tomorrow.

Putting it all together, this suggests that the reversal will happen no later than Monday and the crash scenario that I have been discussing will get underway either on June 21st or June 28th.

Have a great evening!

Anthony M. Cherniawski

Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules