Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Signs of Stock Market Concern in the Economic Recovery Process

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 20, 2010 - 05:21 AM GMT

By: Donald_W_Dony


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic recoveries generally take a fairly standard pattern. The stock market usually bottoms 4 to 8 months before the low in the business cycle. Risk levels that are associated with the final days of the bear market ease. Expanding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gradually develops and improves. Rising unemployment numbers stabilize and begin to decline. Early advancing industrial groups, such as consumer discretionaries, transportation and technology start to strengthen and outperform. And central banks slowly increase short-term interest rates to keep the fledgling economy in-check. However, when specific signs of weakness remain after over a year of economic expansion, investors should take note.

Industrial metals are one of the 'fuels' during a business cycle and often act as a 'barometer' on the economy. The utilization of lead, zinc, copper and nickel is primary in housing, manufacturing, construction and consumer goods. Metal prices typically show stable strength in the first phase of the cycle particularly during a period of secular $US decline (2000 to present).

After roaring upward in 2009, base metal prices appear to have stalled in 2010 and started to roll over (Chart 1). Some of the reason can be contributed to the recent bounce in the US dollar. Nevertheless, the weakness in price support does indicates an underlining pullback in buying pressure and a mistrust from traders about the continued recovery.

The yield curve (Chart 2) is a reflection on economic strength. During a typical recovery, upward pressure brings to build on short-term rates as the economy slowly gathers momentum. Within the first year of a new bull market, growth expands to the point where central banks begin to raise interest rates to keep the new economy from overheating too early. As short-term rates advance, the yield curve gradually begins the often long-term process of flattening. Under a 'normal' business cycle, the yield curve usually starts to decline within the first year. In the case of the present cycle, the curve has continued to steepen. This means that the standard economically-driven pressure on shorter one and two bond yields have not yet developed. And this is after over a year of an economic recovery. Demand remains firm for bonds across the curve.

The Volatility Index or VIX is a measure of risk on the S&P 500 (Chart 3). The understanding of this long established gauge can be best read by partitioning the index into zones. A reading of 18 or under represents a low risk period. This level is usually associated with the long upward advance of bull markets and steadily expanding economies. The zone of 18 to 33 normally corresponds to bear market declines and stock market crests and bottoms. The high risk zone of over 33 is usually entered for only a brief period as equity markets are reaching their final bear lows.

The elevated range in April and May 2010 illustrates a moderate to borderline high risk level that is typically not seen during a standard market correction. Pullbacks during the last bull market (2003 to 2007), only generated a risk level on the VIX of 20 to 22. The swift decline of stocks in May drove the VIX to over 40.

Bottom line: There are many economic areas of improvement and signs of investor confidence returning. However, the presence of weak industrial metal prices, a prolonged steep yield curve plus a continued overly high level of risk, translates into a heightened range of concern from investors about the strength of the economic recovery. None of these actions should normally occur after 15 months of a new bull market.

Investment approach: Models have implied that the markets move in approximately four month (16-week) trading cycles. With the completion of the last cycle in late May to early June, the next expected trough should arrive in September. This month has a 73% probability of negative returns based on 50 years of data. The signs of weakness in industrial metals, the prolonged steepness in the yield curve and the unusually high level of the VIX suggests investors may wish to take a more defensive stance during the next four months. These conditions maybe short lived but some additional protection is likely warranted now.

An easy method of providing extra protection in portfolios is to hold a higher cash position, a lower equity percentage or increased fixed income holdings.

More research will be in the upcoming July newsletter.

Your comments are always welcomed.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

COPYRIGHT © 2010 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules