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Stock Market Good News, Bad News

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jun 24, 2010 - 08:03 AM GMT

By: Jay_DeVincentis

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere's how we see the future action.

The market is set up for a bounce and the Fed meeting didn't change much. The market is all about energy and there is energy for a rally. The issue here is that if we move lower into 6/28 (our next key reversal date) then we bounce into July 10th and then move WAY lower into August.


But a rally here would set up a bounce into the end of the month, an early consolidation into July and while not a huge rally in August, at least it won't be a waterfall decline. So while many say go away in May, this is a great time to be watching the market...

Daily Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer Analysis

The barometerremains in Buy Mode, but turning lower, so we remain very cautious here. I expect a bounce, but watch for an intra day signal is one doesn't materialize.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.

Money Management & Stops

To trade this system, there are a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:

  • This system targets intermediate term moves, of which even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7 profitable intermediate term moves. The rest of the year will be consolidating moves where this system will experience small losses and gains that offset each other.
  • This system will usually result in losing trades more than 50% of the time, even in our best years. The key is being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come.
  • Therefore it is vitally important that you apply some form of money management to protect your capital.
  • Trading a leveraged index fund will result in more risk, since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday.

Accordingly;

  • Make sure you set your stops so that you can lose no more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you're trading leveraged funds and options with our trading service).

Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2010 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance.

My forecastremains looking for a rally into the 28th. This is the end of the month and mutual funds need to make their numbers look good. But a move lower into the 28th will put us back on a bearish outlook for this summer. So stay tuned.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2009 Published Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9, 12/21, 12/29. 2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.

Spread Indicators

Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

QQQQ Buy/Sell Spread Momentum Chart

The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.

Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)

Gold Buy/Sell Spread Momentum Chart

Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.

US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)

USD Buy/Sell Spread Momentum Chart

Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.

Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)

Bond Spread Momentum Indicator

Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman's 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.

OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)

OilBuy/Sell Spread Momentum Chart

Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.

Supporting Secondary Indicator

5-Day NASDAQ Declines

We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.

Summary of Daily Outlook

We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to move higher, potentially into the end of the month, following a consolidation here.

The markets movement is akin to breathing in and out - stocks move up and down and these indicators show us how to measure these movements in various time frames. The market is breathing out right now. In normal breathing, you would expect it to start breathing in here. Thus, the markets should rally.

The Fed actions are very tough to follow as day traders. If you were in the chat room with me, we had an initial move lower, then a move higher to test a downtrend followed by a move lower. It was frustrating action and many and most will just sit on their hands and wait until today to trade.

That trading today will tell us a lot more than what happaned on Wednesday...

My time in the chat room will be limited today due to some other obligations.

As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me here at jay@stockbarometer.com.

Regards,

By Jay DeVincentis

www.stockbarometer.com

Stock Barometer Premier Membership Receive 5 Newsletters, including the Daily Stock Barometer, Stock Options Speculator, QQQQ/Rydex Trader, Market Chat & Explosive Stock Alert FOR ONE LOW PRICE.


Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

© 2010 Copyright Jay DeVincentis - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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