Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Forced Economic Austerity ill Timed

Economics / Economic Austerity Jun 28, 2010 - 01:55 PM GMT

By: Captain_Hook


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust listened to Jim Puplava over the weekend and there was no mention of such austerity related concerns amongst his listeners providing feedback, which I will take as a representation of the general investing public’s lack of awareness on the subject. The message I got from his listeners is increasing inflation possibly to the point of hyperinflation is guaranteed because it’s assumed politicians will not allow collapse. Apparently these people don’t read the news much, or perhaps they prefer not to think of their ill-timed investment decisions losing money. Something tells me it’s the later.

The following is commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Tuesday, June 15th, 2010.

No matter, markets will do what they do best, which is make profits for the least number of participants possible, and based on the current set-up, this appears to still be the case as most individual investors are long stocks and risky bonds again. This is of course a necessary precondition for stock market declines within the scope of the discussion above, where although investors have been desensitized to all the bad news out there they discover once again that fundamentals actually do matter, and that trusting politicians, business leaders, and the financial industry can be hazardous to your financial health.

What’s more, nothing makes this point better than Bernanke’s assurances the US is not heading down the same road to austerity as Europe, which sparked the rally in stocks late last week, when this is exactly what is happening. In fact, what we are witnessing forced austerity (on the Fed and Obama Administration) in the US. And something that will come as an even bigger surprise to the present bureaucracy I’m sure is the shift from stimulus to austerity by the G-20, which should make for interesting discussion at next week’s summit in Toronto, especially if stocks don’t respond to the usual ‘jam job’ normally witnessed just prior to these meetings in an attempt to spur public confidence in their abilities.

The fact of the matter is the public is losing confidence in these characters fast, as can be seen in increasing protests, which might spill over to the stock market soon as well. Up until now many stock market participants have naively remained in their portfolios thinking everything will be ‘just fine’, and that the bureaucracy is a surrogate for their mommy and daddy, a sentiment reinforced by an overzealous but less than ingenuous Obama. It’s safe to say the bloom has come off this thinking and presidency now however, where all it would take to demonstrate the wheels have officially ‘come off’, is marginal withdrawals from already cash strapped mutual funds to trigger some sort of market crash, either a more controlled decline or something like we witnessed on May 6th.

That being said, with so many crash calls on the net at present, and a likely euro rally with all the stupid short, this might be enough to negate the influence of falling and low US index open interest put / call ratios for a while, especially after expiry this Friday. A falling dollar could provide such support to stocks in the initial stages of the decline you see. And if price managers can keep stocks buoyant into the G-20 summit this coming weekend, then it’s possible the S&P 500 (SPX) can make it back up into the reaches of higher Fibonacci retracement metrics, ranging from 1130 to 1150, austerity measures and deficits or not. Now I am not forecasting such a move, as it’s going to take some doing to get the SPX back through the 200-day moving average at 1108, however the dollar is quite overbought and could correct lower for some time, possibly well into the summer.

And if speculators start to take open interest put / call ratios back up because of all the bad news out there, and there is plenty of it these days, then reaching the 1150 Fibonacci retracement on the SPX should be considered a given. We will of course keep you appraised of the situation post expiry this coming Friday. Again, I am not forecasting or betting on such an outcome given both the fundamentals and technicals, however as a good speculator one must be prepared for all possibilities, probable or not. This is of course all speculation on my part naturally, past this however, it’s always possible the euro correction higher is shallow – really shallow – because let’s face it, the banking sector in the eurozone is the worst financial basket case on earth, which translates directly to sovereign issues these days. (See Figure 1)

Figure 1

The table above (compiled by Bloomberg) shows the leverage ratios for European and UK banks and that contrary to what the media (or logic) would have you believe, Greece, and now Spain, who need bailouts pronto because of bank / sovereign runs, are actually the ‘good kids’ on the block in having the lowest leverage ratios, meaning the fun has only begun in this regard. The present bailouts for Greece and Spain are theatre, a distraction, to keep your attention off the enormity of the problems present in senior EU countries. This is of course why no matter how many junior countries are bailed out, when it’s Germany’s turn, which is a given based on the leverage it’s banks are running, both the euro and eurozone will likely breakup. Along these lines, it should be noted this is why Deutsche Mark quotes have now reappeared on Germany's big board.

It’s a wonder then why the financial markets are holding together as well as they are, all things considered. Of course this could change quickly if the right trigger goes off, making concerns such as those discussed above regarding a more robust bounce in stocks just short of paranoid delusion in hindsight. Because although it might not seem like it, one should note stocks have essentially been trading sideways for three weeks now and are no longer oversold, making the completion of what has now morphed into classic head and shoulders pattern(s) on the major indexes quite possible. All we would need to see is a pickup in volume as the SPX sailed through support at 1040 and a trip down to the Point and Figure Chart (see below) measured move at 920 would likely be fait accompli. Up until now the lack of volume was helping price managers support prices at strategic times of the day, like between 3 and 4 pm when they customarily come in for an end of day ‘jam job’, however again, this would backfire on them if the head and shoulders pattern neckline at 1040 on the SPX is violated on heavy volume in classic form. (See Figure 2)

Figure 2

Another important technical observation regarding the SPX comes in the fact it’s attempted to better the 200-day moving average three times now, including yesterday, and failed. One of Gann’s top trading rules was always sell a triple top, and this applies to the right shoulders of such patterns as well. Speaking of patterns, yesterday the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) might have completed a classic a – b – c corrective sequence in testing Bollinger Band (BB) and Golden Cross related support at the 50-day moving average (MA), making a continuation of the up-trend quite possible, if not probable. And it should be noted all this is occurring within the context of a necessary complacent investing / speculator community that still has far too much faith in our price managing bureaucracy, evidenced by still little followed declining and low index open interest put / call ratios. (See Figure 3)

Figure 3

Unfortunately we cannot carry on past this point, as the remainder of this analysis is reserved for our subscribers. Of course if the above is the kind of analysis you are looking for this is easily remedied by visiting our web site to discover more about how our service can help you in not only this regard, but also in achieving your financial goals. As you will find, our recently reconstructed site includes such improvements as automated subscriptions, improvements to trend identifying / professionally annotated charts, to the more detailed quote pages exclusively designed for independent investors who like to stay on top of things. Here, in addition to improving our advisory service, our aim is to also provide a resource center, one where you have access to well presented 'key' information concerning the markets we cover.

And if you are interested in finding out more about how our advisory service would have kept you on the right side of the equity and precious metals markets these past years, please take some time to review a publicly available and extensive archive located here, where you will find our track record speaks for itself.

Naturally if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line. We very much enjoy hearing from you on these matters.

Good investing all.

By Captain Hook

Treasure Chests is a market timing service specializing in value-based position trading in the precious metals and equity markets with an orientation geared to identifying intermediate-term swing trading opportunities. Specific opportunities are identified utilizing a combination of fundamental, technical, and inter-market analysis. This style of investing has proven very successful for wealthy and sophisticated investors, as it reduces risk and enhances returns when the methodology is applied effectively. Those interested in discovering more about how the strategies described above can enhance your wealth should visit our web site at Treasure Chests

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2010 Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

Captain Hook Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules