Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Rebounds Amid Positive Economic Reports - 22nd Apr 21
China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 - 22nd Apr 21
Gold Price Next Key Level - 22nd Apr 21
Here's What to Look For When Hiring a Real Estate Agent - 22nd Apr 21
Ethereum EIP 1559 and Raven Coin - 21st Apr 21
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving - 21st Apr 21
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! - 21st Apr 21
DogeCoin CRASH! Time to Start Mining BOODGIE Coin! Crypto Mania 2021 - 21st Apr 21
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks - 21st Apr 21
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 - 21st Apr 21
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here Is How To Hire One - 21st Apr 21
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Natural Gas Valuations Jump Up with Buyout – Who’s Next?

Companies / Natural Gas Jul 13, 2010 - 01:31 PM GMT

By: Keith_Schaefer

Companies

Valuations in the Canadian gas patch took a BIG jump today as Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGF-TSX) bought out junior gas producer Monterey Explorations (MXL-TSX) for its Montney gas play in NorthEast British Columbia.   Monterey’s stock jumped 80%, up $3.46, to close at $7.74 on 6.3 million shares.


Pengrowth paid well over $200,000 per flowing barrel for a natural gas producer – when the average for junior producers is $55,000 – $70,000 per flowing barrel, according to Canaccord Genuity and BMO Nesbitt Burns recent data. Storm Exploration (SEO-TSX), one of the most respected teams and lowest cost gas producers on the TSX, sold for $69,000 per flowing barrel exactly one month ago.

Now, there were some mitigating reasons for this very high valuation – which I will explain briefly – but it has investors wondering – which junior gas producer is next? With premium buyouts that high, these previously moribund junior gas stocks could have some profit potential for investors this summer.

There are several junior Montney gas players, including – in alphabetical order – Advantage Energy, Birchcliff Energy, Celtic Energy, Cequence Energy, Cinch Energy, Crew Energy, Crocotta Energy, Delphi Energy, Insignia Energy, Orleans Energy, Painted Pony Explorations, Progress Energy, Rock Energy, Seaview Energy and Terra Energy and Trilogy and Yoho Resources.

One factor driving valuations could be the new focus on the deep (3500 m) Duvernay shale, the bottom formation in the Montney area, which is pervasive yet unexplored. The Duvernay shale is believed to be the source rock for all the prolific oil producing reef structures in the Beaverhill Lake and Leduc formations just above it.  Over $450 million was paid for Alberta oil and gas rights last week, and most analysts believe the bulk of it was spent for the Duvernay shale.  Many junior gas stocks with Duvernay rights had an uptick last week after the sale.

All this is happening while natural gas prices are still low.  Production in the US is still increasing, especially in the Marcellus shale of Pennsylvania, although demand is also up.  Many companies still must drill or lose their gas lands regardless of price. 

But low gas prices have not impacted mergers & acquisitions in the US.  Canadian brokerage house GMP Securities estimates more than $70 billion in transactions in natural gas producers have been completed in the US in the last two years.

In speaking with Calgary CEOs and investment bankers today, nobody understood why Pengrowth paid that much for Monterey.  But, while Monterey has only 1,700 boe/d now, it has 20 million mmcf/d (million cubic feet of gas per day production) ready to go into a new 28 mmcf/d facility.  The industry converts gas into oil at 6:1, so that 20 mmcf/d=~3,333 boe/d. Pengrowth clearly paid for that, and Pengrowth expects to exit 2010 with 6,000 boe/d on the Monterey lands.   At 6,000 boe/d, Pengrowth says the valuation metrics are just under $50,000 per flowing barrel.  Pengrowth already owned a big chunk of Monterey, but good for Monterey management for getting that priced in.

And their latest 3 wells AVERAGED 7 mmcf/d on short term IP rates – you do see these bigger numbers, but not often as an average.  That’s good consistent high rates of production.

Also, Monterey spent the money to acquire the Duvernay rights to its properties.   Many analysts are calling the Duvernay the next “Horn River” play, referring to the huge new shale play on the Yukon-BC-Alberta border.  Except the Duvernay – if it works – is in the middle of lots of oil and gas infrastructure, like pipelines and suppliers, and doesn’t need tens of kilometers of roads built through tough northern bush.

All this is good news for investors in junior and intermediate natural gas stocks, as the industry is clearly saying – build it, and we will come (buy you out).

About Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin

Keith Schaefer, Editor and Publisher of Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin, writes on oil and natural gas markets - and stocks - in a simple, easy to read manner. He uses research reports and trade magazines, interviews industry experts and executives to identify trends in the oil and gas industry - and writes about them in a public blog. He then finds investments that make money based on that information. Company information is shared only with Oil & Gas Investments subscribers in the Bulletin - they see what he’s buying, when he buys it, and why.

The Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin subscription service finds, researches and profiles growing oil and gas companies.  The Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin is a completely independent service, written to build subscriber loyalty. Companies do not pay in any way to be profiled. For more information about the Bulletin or to subscribe, please visit: www.oilandgas-investments.com.

Legal Disclaimer: Under no circumstances should any Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin material be construed as an offering of securities or investment advice. Readers should consult with his/her professional investment advisor regarding investments in securities referred to herein. It is our opinion that junior public oil and gas companies should be evaluated as speculative investments. The companies on which we focus are typically smaller, early stage, oil and gas producers. Such companies by nature carry a high level of risk. Keith Schaefer is not a registered investment dealer or advisor. No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned, or the giving of investment advice. Oil and Gas Investments is a commercial enterprise whose revenue is solely derived from subscription fees. It has been designed to serve as a research portal for subscribers, who must rely on themselves or their investment advisors in determining the suitability of any investment decisions they wish to make. Keith Schaefer does not receive fees directly or indirectly in connection with any comments or opinions expressed in his reports. He bases his investment decisions based on his research, and will state in each instance the shares held by him in each company. The copyright in all material on this site is held or used by permission by us. The contents of this site are provided for informational purposes only and may not, in any form or by any means, be copied or reproduced, summarized, distributed, modified, transmitted, revised or commercially exploited without our prior written permission.

© 2010, Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin

Contact Us:
Email: nichola@oilandgas-investments.com

Customer Service: 1-877-844-8606
www.oilandgas-investments.com

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules