Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Boris Johnson Hits Coronavirus Panic Button Again, UK Accelertoing Covid-19 Second Wave - 25th Sep 20
Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike - 25th Sep 20
Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo - 25th Sep 20
Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins - 25th Sep 20
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles - 25th Sep 20
Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? - 25th Sep 20
How to Boost the Value of Your Home - 25th Sep 20
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce - 24th Sep 20
Five ways to recover the day after a good workout - 24th Sep 20
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels - 23rd Sep 20
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments - 23rd Sep 20
What’s Behind Dollar USDX Breakout? - 23rd Sep 20
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks - 23rd Sep 20
Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher - 23rd Sep 20
Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets - 23rd Sep 20
Watch Before Upgrading / Buying RTX 3000, RDNA2 - CPU vs GPU Bottlenecks - 23rd Sep 20
Online Elliott Wave Markets Trading Course Worth $129 for FREE! - 22nd Sep 20
Gold Price Overboughtness Risk - 22nd Sep 20
Central Banking Cartel Promises ZIRP Until at Least 2023 - 22nd Sep 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective - 22nd Sep 20
Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded - 21st Sep 20
Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It - 21st Sep 20
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources - 21st Sep 20
How to Avoid Currency Exchange Risk during COVID - 21st Sep 20
Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend - 20th Sep 20
Do This Instead Of Trying To Find The “Next Amazon” - 20th Sep 20
5 Significant Benefits of the MT4 Trading Platform for Forex Traders - 20th Sep 20
A Warning of Economic Collapse - 20th Sep 20
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Hindenburg Stock Market Crash Omen is Nonsense Says BubbleOmics

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Aug 23, 2010 - 03:45 PM GMT

By: Andrew_Butter

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleApparently there has been another Hindenburg Omen sighted, and apparently also one of those has preceded every US stock market crash since 1985.

Robert McHugh has a table that proves that: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22097.html


I’m a bit confused by the last entry which says that the first new set of Omens started in December 2008 and there wasn’t a crash since then. Well actually the DJIA went down 22% from then, but perhaps that was just a “correction”.

This is a chart comparing the numbers of Omens sighted with the final decline, using the data provided by McHugh (and the alternate).:

There is no correlation at all, although the shape of the “best-fit” appears to suggest that if no Hindenburg Omens are sighted the likely size of the crash that follows will tend towards infinity.

Plotting that data another way:

OK 44% R-Squared is not nothing; but it’s not a lot.

But if you buy the idea that the decline of 22% from December 2008 to March 2009 was a separate “crash”, then since then one Omen has been sighted, just recently (apparently none were sighted before the recent 16% decline), so  “well we just had a “sighting” so it’s pretty unlikely there will be a crash of more than 20% for at least two months, if that is a valid predictor.

Another explanation is that the Omen is just a load of Mumbo-Jumbo.

Markets crash precipitously when they are in a bubble, that’s when the price is above the fundamental value (International Valuation Standards Calls that Other Than Market Value).

Here’s another way of looking at that:

The explanation for why that works is at:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10604.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9131.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12114.html

That logic (called Bubbleomics) predicted (like in advance):

1: S&P 500 would bottom at 675
2: Then it would bounce
3: All the way until it reached 1200
4: Then it would go down 15% to 20%.

Oh and by the way, there were only FOUR predictions; i.e. four out of four.

The same logic says about the impending “mother of all crashes” to dwarf all crashes:

“Don’t be so silly”!

By Andrew Butter

Twenty years doing market analysis and valuations for investors in the Middle East, USA, and Europe; currently writing a book about BubbleOmics. Andrew Butter is managing partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm, based in Dubai ( hbutter@eim.ae ), that he setup in 1999, and is has been involved advising on large scale real estate investments, mainly in Dubai.

© 2010 Copyright Andrew Butter- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Andrew Butter Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

SaulRosenberg
23 Aug 10, 21:39
Statistics

Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that.

---Homer Simpson


SuperDooper
24 Aug 10, 14:48
At Last

Glad we can post a comment here without the cheerleader deleting an opinion for oncein free speech just because he can't stand people being bearish towards a market that is crumbling before his eyes. Now...thank God for someone like Andrew Butter to deliver an unbiased reflection of a H.O. I will say this much, back in early Oct 08 a very smart forecaster refused to believe in this sort of predictor and worse still he refused to believe the a wave 3 of huge form was approaching. Yet again we have the soothsayers mocking this indicator to their peril.


Andrew Butter
28 Aug 10, 14:49
Response to comments

RE:SaulRosenberg

Not sure if you are on my side or not, but I certainly agree that the Simpsons have it cracked.

RE: SuperDooper

Not sure if you are on my side either - I just ran the numbers. I dunno who you are saying is deleting your comments, as far as I know the House of Walayat accepts all denominations - he even publishes my stuff!!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules