Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20
Reasons why Bitcoin is Treading at it's Highest Level Since 2017 and a Warning - 19th Nov 20
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked - 19th Nov 20
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th Nov 20
Demoncracy Ushers in the Flu World Order How to Survive and Profit From What Is Coming - 19th Nov 20
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" - 18th Nov 20
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance - 18th Nov 20
GPU Fan Not Spinning FIX - How to Easily Extend the Life of Your Gaming PC System - 18th Nov 20
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top - 18th Nov 20
Edge Computing Is Leading the Next Great Tech Revolution - 18th Nov 20
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 17th Nov 20
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq - 17th Nov 20
Creating Marketing Campaigns Using the Freedom of Information Act - 17th Nov 20
Stock Market Uptrend in Process - 17th Nov 20
How My Friend Made $128,000 Investing in Stocks Without Knowing It - 16th Nov 20
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices - 16th Nov 20
Top Cheap Budgie Toys - Every Budgie Owner Should Have These Safe Bird Toys! - 16th Nov 20
Line Up For Your Jab to get your Covaids Freedom Pass and a 5% Work From Home Tax - 16th Nov 20
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals - 16th Nov 20
Demystifying interesting facts about online Casinos - 16th Nov 20
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? - 15th Nov 20
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ - 15th Nov 20
Overclockers UK Quality of Custom Gaming System Build - OEM Windows Sticker? - 15th Nov 20
UK GCSE Exams 2021 CANCELLED! Grades Based on Mock Exams and Teacher Assessments - 15th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Crash, Bull or Bear? 

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Sep 02, 2010 - 03:33 AM GMT

By: JD_Rosendahl


Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday’s rise in the stock market seems to have put in a near term bottom by advancing over the recent gap in price @ 1,071 on the SP500.  Today, we had a strong move covering the gap resistance and the market closed right at its high and the 50 day MA.  Above the 50 day MA is the next hurdle.   MACD and RSI are turning up to support price.

And as always, Mr. Market provides everyone something to cling to in the near future. 

The Bullish View:  The bull view is an inverse head and shoulders pattern.  The pattern’s target price upon breaking above the neckline is 1,250ish.   

The Bear View:  The bears will see a wedge pattern in development.  I’ve drawn in the Elliott Wave count to reflect what the wedge pattern looks like.  It requires a move higher to finish wave B before a declining wave C with a target of roughly 950 on the SP500, see chart below:

The Crash:  I've done my best to provide the Elliott Wave structure the ardent bears have for the massive wave 3 down.  It's more of a visual, but I want to focus on where we are now in this view  We just finished wave i and in wave ii.  If so, wave ii should stall at the 62% retracement level, or the price resistance at 1,100.

$COMPQ and XLF:  This is where the action was really interesting today.  For the markets to go higher, risk and money need to be part of the move.  The $COMPQ slightly underperformed the market, but the financials where well ahead of the market's performance on a percentage basis.  $COMPQ climbed above gap resistance while the XLF gapped over it's down trend line.  In both cases, we have the MACD and RSI turning up to support price with divergences forming on the MACD.  If it's the bullish market view, these need to be strong contributors.

IBM:  Big move higher, but still below the 50 and 200 day MAs.  If it gets above that, IBM could easily retest major price resistance, which would be the 4th attempt!  Above that could easily support the bullish view on the stock market.

JNK:  It finally moved and has retested the uptrend line.  A move above that is a bullish indicator for the stock market.  If the market is moving higher, than those putting money back into riskier assets should also be comfortable with junk bonds.  This is why I feel JNK is a decent indicator for the market's health.

$VIX:  The index seems to have rolled over, which would indicate another test of the bottom support line is now the expected move.

GLD:  The gold market is starting to look tired.  If the stock markets are going higher, we should expect the safe haven trades to consolidate at a minimum.  And that seems to be what the bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD are suggesting.

$USB:  Again, if the stock markets are to go higher, than the safe haven trades should at least consolidate.  Both the RSDI and MACD are trying to roll over to support that view.

My Watch List:  Regardless of the bull, bear or crash view, it seems likely we trade higher near term.  It’s to early to get excited about the inverse H&S until we're above the resistance area, but a move to that area is certainly a tradable move.  Could the market do something very different all together?  Sure, but these are the three prominent patterns or wave structures for the time being.  The month of September should also be enough time to at least narrow one of the options out of the picture.  Given that dynamic the long side trade should be the place until we have more price data.  For a list of my trading candidates, please see tonight’s full blog at

Hope all is well.

By J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl was a former stock broker/investment consultant (currently not licensed) before becoming a Commercial Banker for the past 14 years. He manages his family's wealth, helping them avoid the high tech bubble and the real estate bubble melt downs and preserving wealth.

© 2010 Copyright J.D. Rosendahl - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules