Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

United States versus China, Currency and Trade Wars

Currencies / Market Manipulation Sep 19, 2010 - 12:36 PM GMT

By: Richard_Mills

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Chinese government, in an effort to maximize exports and minimize US imports prints their yuan to buy dollars. This prevents their currency from rising and the dollar from falling. Then it loans those same dollars back to America by buying US debt.


At the same time China:

  • Puts in place purchasing restrictions
  • Permits piracy
  • Delays legitimate items from entering the country
  • Provides massive direct subsidization of export production in many key industries
  • Maintains strict non-tariff barriers to imports

In 2009 U.S. imports from China were worth $296.4 billion. U.S. exports to China equaled $69.5 billion. In the first half of 2010 the U.S. trade gap with China equaled $119.5 billion.

The American Congress is facing a restless, very concerned, and increasingly vocal American public. Lawmakers in both the Senate and House, responding to voters unhappy with high unemployment - 25 million people don't have a job or are working part time, 6.2 million people have been out of work for longer than 6 months - are blaming China for the loss of US jobs and are pushing for legislation that would expand the government's power to impose trade sanctions on China.

With midterm elections in November and the Obama Administration vulnerable in the House and Senate there's the very real possibility that President Obama will pass a law that restricts Chinese exports into the US - Obama did promise to get tough on China over its currency practices in his election campaign and he is now facing bipartisan pressure.

Many economists, and most US manufacturers, estimate China's currency is undervalued by up to 40 percent. An undervalued yuan means that Chinese products are cheaper for U.S. consumers but American products cost more for Chinese consumers.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, while not yet endorsing the new legislation, said China must move faster to allow its currency to rise in value against the dollar. Recently China's central bank did allow (the yuan's trading range is controlled by the Chinese government) the yuan to rise against the US dollar. But with only just a 1.6 percent rise since June many lawmakers in the US are frustrated.

The US Treasury is required to submit to Congress twice a year (April and October) a report Congress can use to identify whether any of the US's major trade partners have manipulated their currencies to boost their exports to the US or make U.S. goods more expensive in their markets. Will the US declare China a Currency Manipulator this October?

"We will take China's actions into account as we prepare the next Foreign Exchange Report (due on Oct. 15) and we are examining the important questions of what mix of tools ... might help the Chinese authorities to move more quickly." US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

If China is designated a currency manipulator it could lead to economic sanctions if the U.S. took a case before the World Trade Organization (WTO) and won.

The Obama administration recently filed two new trade cases against China before the Geneva-based WTO.

"We are concerned that China is breaking its trade commitments to the United States and other WTO partners." U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk

China's Problems

Capital controls and trade restrictions have been absolutely necessary for China to reach this stage in its economic development. The country's economic development is largely driven by fixed asset investments (FAI - fixed assets include items such as land and buildings, motor vehicles, and plant and machinery). China's fixed assets investment reached 14.1 trillion yuan (2.1 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first eight months of 2010.

China is able to invest so much into FAI because, in addition to the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI equaled 488.7 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, FDI is a measure of foreign ownership of productive assets, such as factories, mines and land) its citizens have a very high savings rate as a percentage of income. And because of controls on how and where they can invest that money, Chinese savers have little choice but to invest at home. If China were to lift its capital controls the resulting outward savings flow seeking higher and safer returns overseas would cause China's economic growth to stall because the largest by far of its two major engines of growth, FAI, would simply run out of money.

Before he was forced onto the Bush/Snow party bandwagon former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a floating exchange rate and/or ending capital controls could trigger an outward flood of capital to more secure foreign banks (Chinese banks, still to this day, carry a massive amount of bad loans). He went on to say this might destabilize the Chinese economy and drag down world growth.

"Export industries employ so many people, and a drop in exports would mean a rise in unemployment which could cause very serious social unrest. Social stability is Chinese leaders' top priority, and the way to achieve it is fast economic growth to keep people working." Xiang Songzuo, deputy head of the International Monetary Institute at Beijing's Renmin University

The Chinese Communist leaders have to feed, cloth and house untold millions of urban residents and hundreds of millions more rural residents moving to urban areas over the next couple of decades. Their biggest fear is social unrest leading to an overthrow of their communist regime. US lawmakers on the other hand are facing midterm elections and nothing is more important to a politician than getting reelected, jobs are the hot button of these midterms and the Obama Administration is vulnerable.

Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury Bonds by $16.9 billion in June alone. Demand for Treasuries from U.S. investors is increasing at a tremendous pace. Spending and incomes are stagnating and the savings rate hit the highest level in almost 18 years reaching 6.4 percent in June said the Commerce Department on Aug. 3 - the U.S. savings rate has now been higher than 5 percent for 21 straight months.

The bottom line here is China's buying of US debt might not have the importance it use to.

"Americans are consuming less and saving more. That causes an increase in savings and deposits, which end up being invested in government securities." Jeffrey Caughron, the chief market analyst in Oklahoma City at Baker Group,

The US could put in place their own capital controls. Washington could also 100 percent shut down the US market to Chinese exports. A major clash would bloody both nations but in the end China would lose the most and the politburo would run an even greater risk of losing its position of power than in a loosening of capital controls.

This dispute over Chinese currency reevaluation is just the harbinger, the tip of the iceburg, of what's to come in the future US-China relationship. Potential areas of conflict include:

  • Trade disputes
  • Conflicts over resources
  • Geopolitical disagreements
  • Intellectual property rights
  • Chinese acquisition of US companies

This is an extremely interesting drama being played out on the world stage between two of the world's most powerful nations and economies. It's a powerful story unfolding in real time and it should be on everyone's radar screen. It certainly is on mine.

Is it on yours?

By Richard (Rick) Mills

www.aheadoftheherd.com

rick@aheadoftheherd.com

If you're interested in learning more about our junior markets please visit us at www.aheadoftheherd.com. Membership is free, no credit card or personal information is asked for.

Richard is host of aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 200 websites, including: Market Oracle, Wall Street Journal, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor.

Copyright © 2010 Richard (Rick) Mills - All Rights Reserved

Legal Notice / Disclaimer: This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules