Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Pre-COVID US Economy Wasn’t All That Great Either - 4th Dec 20
Bitcoin Breath Taking Surge - Crypto Trading Event - 4th Dec 20
Platinum Begins A New Rally – Gold & Silver Will Follow - 4th Dec 20
Don't Let the Silver (and Gold) Bull Shake You Off! - 4th Dec 20
Stronger Risk Appetite Sends Gold below $1,800 - 4th Dec 20
A new “miracle compound” is set to take over the biotech market - 4th Dec 20
Eiro-group Review –The power of trading education - 4th Dec 20
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Critically Overbought - Reaction Lower to $700 Probable

Commodities / Gold & Silver Oct 01, 2007 - 12:56 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe way to be popular in this business it to tell people what they want to hear, which is that gold and silver are going up, up, up. However, if your priority is to assist people in making money or at least avoid losing it, then being popular has to be a secondary consideration.


Thus, in the last Gold Market update, an alarm was sounded over the rapidly increasing Commercial short position in gold, and a scenario was described in which gold breaks out to a new high amid great fanfare in the financial press, only to abruptly reverse. Gold has broken out to a new high and on Friday rose sharply to close at $750, and the purpose of this update is to assess whether further upside progress is likely, or whether it is now likely to consolidate/react.

There are 2 factors which taken together strongly suggest that gold is about to react. One is the RSI indicator shown at the top of the 2-year chart above, which remains at a critically overbought level. By itself this would not necessarily preclude further advance, as a commodity can remain very overbought for a lengthy period and yet continue higher. However, if we also take into account the fact that the Commercials’ short positions in gold have risen to by far the highest level for a year, with a corresponding ballooning of the Large Specs’ long positions, then a reaction would appear to be imminent. Before taking a closer look at the latest COT chart the point should be made that overall the gold chart looks strongly bullish, with a breakout to new highs, albeit still a marginal breakout, and moving averages in bullish alignment, suggesting that a major uptrend is still in its early stages. Thus, what we are concentrating on here is a probable significant near-term reaction to correct the current short-term overbought condition.

Turning now to consider the latest COT chart, we can immediately see that both the Large Spec long positions and the Commercial short positions have expanded significantly over the past week to reach a 1-year record, by a considerable margin. This is a setup that classically signals an imminent reversal. The one time that the writer intentionally went against such a setup he was buried in a hole so deep it took months to dig himself out.

So, if this interpretation is correct, how far is gold likely to react? A reaction back to the $700 area, where there is strong support, is considered the most likely scenario, and providing that there is a satisfactory drawdown in the Large Specs long positions and Commercials short positions, we would look to buy aggressively on such a reaction - both gold and gold stocks. Bearing in mind the bullish immediate outlook for the broad stockmarket, it is thought unlikely that Precious Metals stocks will lose much ground, even if gold and silver react as predicted, so the emphasis is not on selling PM stocks, but rather buying them on near-term weakness. We should keep in mind that the same forces driving the general stockmarket higher - the maintainence of liquidity and the continued ballooning of the money supply, are the forces that will fuel an acceleration in the rate of inflation, which is good for gold and silver.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

© 2007 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

 

 

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

© 2007 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

 

Silver Short-term Fall to Present Another Buying Opportunity

Even though recent action in silver has been very positive, with it finally breaking free from the shackles of its “Distribution Dome”, short-term it looks set to react significantly in sympathy with gold, a scenario that is made a lot more likely by last week’s sharp increase in the Commercials’ short positions. The long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, so if the expected short-term reaction occurs it will be viewed as presenting another buying opportunity.

On the 2-year chart we can see how silver has broken free of the Dome pattern and by a considerable margin, so that the Dome is no longer a constraining factor. Nevertheless, it remains in a zone of substantial resistance and has become short-term overbought, as revealed by various oscillators, most notably the RSI indicator shown at the top of the chart. Thus, given that gold now looks set to react, it is probable that silver will get dragged down with it. With gold expected to react probably to the $700 area, a corresponding reaction by silver would likely take it back to the $12.50 - $13.00 area, where it will be considered a strong buy again, any such retreat also presenting another buying opportunity in silver stocks.

On the latest silver COT chart we can see the rapidly expanding Commercial short position, which can be presumed to have continued to increase later last week. This is increasing the chances of a smackdown soon, particularly as the Commercials short positions in gold have risen to a 1-year high by a wide margin.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

© 2007 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

William
14 Jan 08, 22:04
Hmmmmm Gold is driving hard to 1000- It is not overbought

I hope you just on the sidelines and not short gold at this posting.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules