Bears in EUR/CHF have remained in overall control this year, with one notable rally attempt made in Jul. Another halt in downtrend has now been seen so it is worth looking at what more needs to be done to suggest a better recovery phase was underway.

The FX Specialist view

WEEKLY CHART

The long term bear channel base has again tried to support the fall in values here.

At this stage we have marked in the current 23.6% recovery at 1.3500 (of the downmove from Dec-08 1.5881 high). A break/close through this would be a positive sign, but also see Daily chart.

DAILY CHART:

In the Commodity Specialist Guide we have been looking at a s/term Fibo projection, which recently impeded bear progress and prompted a bounce.

At this stage the first interesting resistance comes from a bear channel top projection, around 1.3685 currently. A break through this would imply serious loss in downward momentum. Subsequent pullbacks would then more likely be temporary.

Meanwhile bears must continue to be given due respect.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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