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Pressures Mount on Bank of England (BOE) to Devalue Pound

Currencies / British Pound Oct 07, 2010 - 01:00 PM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco


The Bank of England (BOE) is due to make a statement today at noon in London (7:00 a.m. ET U.S.). The BOE’s actions in the next 45 days may be important to investors in the U.S. and global commodity markets. All things being equal, a weak U.S. dollar tends to provide favorable headwinds to both U.S. stocks and commodities, such as oil (USL), copper (JJC), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV). With the BOE facing more bad news on the housing front today, political pressures to join the money-printing parties in the United States and Japan are mounting.

As shown below, the U.S. Dollar (UUP) and British Pound (FXB) tend to be negatively correlated. Should the Bank of England decide to stimulate further in the coming weeks and months, in the form of more quantitative easing, it could impact investors in the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ, as well as those using commodities as a hedge against a weak dollar.

With exports impacted by stronger currencies, Japan (FXY), the U.S., and England are all looking to prevent their medium of exchange from appreciating too much. Japan recently announced additional plans for asset purchases and the U.S. Fed is hinting strongly at following along at their November 3, 2010 meeting. The BOE has a decision to make over the next few weeks. It is widely expected no significant changes to BOE policy will be announced this morning, but it is something investors should keep on their radar.

The daily CCM 80-20 Correction Index closed Wednesday at 604, which keeps us at a point of relatively low-risk for a major market correction. Roughly 80% of the corrections we studied occurred from points when the 80-20 values were greater than 604. The CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) closed Wednesday at 2,807. Markets Downside Risk Mitigated By Fed, Economy, and Technicals contains a BMSI table which shows historical risk-reward ratios for BMSI values.

By Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2009 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

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