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Preparing for a Stock Market Peak

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Oct 03, 2007 - 07:44 PM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's action in the Nasdaq neither confirmed a near-term peak nor confirmed that the action off of Monday's new multi-year high represents a bullish congestion pattern ahead of another upleg.


But rest assured that this high-level "churn" is indicative of an approaching peak. Perhaps Friday's Employment Report will trigger a resolution one direction or another to the current stand-off. Or, perhaps in both directions: a spike to new highs, followed by a wicked downside reversal.

All I can say at this point is that a very meaningful peak is approaching, and it could very well come in the aftermath of a "news spike" to new highs, which attracts all sorts of sellers -- most of whom are all too aware what month of the year it is.

The Dow, as well, is poised for a peak, albeit not before one more potential thrust. Let's notice that on Monday, the DJIA surged to a new all-time high of about 0.006%, and since has reversed back below the prior high (July) at 14,021.

While there is a possibility that we are witnessing a Bull Trap (a marginal new high followed by a precipitous downside reversal), the weakness so far from 14,115 into today's low at 13,948 has yet to inflict any serious damage to the otherwise powerful, and intact, upleg off of the August 16 low at 12,518.

Only a sustained break below 13,850 will begin to compromise the current upleg and will be my preliminary confirmation of the Bull Trap. In the meantime, let's expect one more thrust towards the top of the 15-month channel -- into the 14,300/350 area -- but at the same time be prepared for failure at just about any moment.

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By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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Comments

Mr Adeniyi Onileyan
18 Sep 08, 12:19
market peak

fund managers often buy near the top of a market peak which could suggest that shareholders' wealth is not being maximised. please can you explain this?


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