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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Mining Stocks and Silver Set for Short-Term Correction

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Oct 19, 2010 - 06:54 AM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhether you call it a recession, or depression, or deflation, or recovery, for tens of millions of Americans, there’s little difference. With the Mid-term elections upon us the odds are that the voters might make the new Congress more conservative.
Generally, it is believed that a more conservative government might lean towards self-control in spending (yeah, right), restraint in Keynesian stimulus policies, which means moderating the quantitative easing.


In the short term that could be good for the dollar and a near-term risk for gold. As the inflation worries could cease for some time, which would help the dollar and at the same time it could cause gold's gleam to fade temporarily as some people would believe that the inflationary period is over.

And then there is the so-called Presidential Election Year Cycle to take into consideration. The theory is based on the powerful incentives presidents have to get the economy looking ship-shape at the time of the next election. In other words, immediately after assuming office, presidents take whatever tough economic measures are necessary in order to set the stage for the recovery and good times. The tendency is for the market to outperform in the 3rd year after the election of the president.

Historical data seems to provide strong support for this theory.

Of course one could argue that the government's stimulus program in effect turned last year into the de facto equivalent of the third year of a president's term. What will happen next depends on how much longer and further the government will extend its stimulus. We believe that any quantitative easing and the printing of new dollars will only make precious metals a more attractive investment

Silver

This week’s long-term chart for silver shows that the recent daily price increase has been accompanied by huge volume (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)  Note that in the past, when a spike was seen in daily trading volume above the 20M level, a price decline followed shortly thereafter in five of the six examples seen since the beginning of 2009. Such a volume level has been seen in recent days (marked with red and black arrows) and for this reason, a sharp decline in the coming days will not be very surprising and is, in fact, expected.

Based on past trends for similar length rallies, there is a good chance we will see a sharp decline in silver’s price very soon given volume this big. A likely target level for this decline will be in the $20 to $21 range for the SLV ETF, slightly higher than we have stated last week.

There are few bullish signals at this time except for silver’s price action itself. The bearish influences of the USD and the general stock market cannot be overlooked. As we stated in our pre-update message this week, “Silver is two days after its “close to the top” territory and slightly above the level created as target based on post-breakout-rallies. The deviations are not big enough for us to consider them as invalidating points made earlier.”

Mining Stocks

The XAU Index relates to gold and silver mining stocks and has many, many years of history. It is an important factor to consider because of its long-term resistance level - perfectly visible on the chart above. In recent days, the XAU Index approached its profound 2008 high. This is an important development especially in view of the rapid rise seen in mining stocks' prices recently (from the long-term point of view).

Two important declining resistance lines have been broken and will likely provide support in the not-too-distant future - they are marked with black thin lines on the chart above. Additionally, the lower border of the rising trend channel could coincide with one of the abovementioned resistance lines, close to the 170 level. It seems likely that a period of consolidation will be seen soon as the 2008 high level appears likely to provide strong resistance.

Indications from this chart have strong bearish implications in short term, even considered apart from other signals.

The past week saw gold mining stocks surpass their 2008 high but they did not get much above this level and thus this breakout is not really significant yet. The performance of gold itself was much stronger and on Thursday the mining stocks actually declined on a day when gold prices moved higher. Anomalies such as this are often seen around local tops and this is yet another sign supporting the likelihood that gold’s rally may be coming to a close.
 
Summing up, multiple signs point to a consolidation period in the near-term for mining stocks. This is consistent with expectations in the gold and silver markets.

At Sunshine Profits we are constantly researching and creating new tools to help investors maximize profits. This week, Subscribers got a sneak preview of our useful new charts on stock options expirations. With stock options expiring on the 3rd Friday each month, Subscribers focused on daily trades can greatly benefit from these charts. This new tool is of even more significance - we’d even go so far as to say, a whole lot more significant - for shot term traders in mining stocks options.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e-mail list. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
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    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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Comments

Wanda Eckman
08 Nov 10, 11:56
Mining Stocks

The "Presidential Election Year Cycle" has for a long time now been considered an important environmental factor to consider when investing in mining stocks and, frankly, all stocks in general. However, I have to wonder how true this theory will hold granted the nearly unprecedented economic conditions taking place when the current president began his term in office.


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