Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Fibonacci, Elliott Wave Theory and the Stocks Bull Market, Gold Top

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Nov 22, 2010 - 11:41 AM GMT

By: Ronald_Rosen


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are a number of well known technicians and fundamentalists who believe and continually write about and talk about a long term bear market in the stock indexes that has much further to go. There are long term charts that may be telling us that a bear market in the S & P 500 and the D. J. I. A. ended in March 2009. A third chart may be telling us that a fifth and final wave in the long term bull market in stocks that began in 1913 is underway. It appears to have begun at the bottom in March 2009. Thirty four years is the key number.

                   “Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves rarely do.”


"Time is the most important factor in determining market movements because the future is a repetition of the past and each market movement is working out time in relation to some previous Time Cycle.”

“You should always figure the time from any top or high level to the next top or high point. Also figure the time from any low level to the next low level. Then figure the time from a low level to a high level and the time from the last high level down to the low level. By doing this, you will know when Time Periods balance or come out about the same as a previous move. This is balancing of time. By knowing these dates and prices, it will help you to determine the duration of the next move.”

                                                          “30 year cycle
“This is the main cycle and the minor cycles are proportionate parts of the 30-year cycle or circle.” 

The top in the last gold bull market occurred about 30 years and seven months ago. The gold bull market then lasted about eleven years and the gold bull market now has lasted about eleven years plus. The gold bull markets began about 30 years apart, not to the day, not to the week and not to the month, but close enough to be considered a thirty year cycle. Will these cycles continue to repeat?  Up to this point in time, November 2010, the gold market appears to be functioning under the influence of an approximate 30 year cycle.

The first bull market lasted about eleven and one half (11 ½) years.
The second bull market has, so far, lasted about eleven and one quarter (11 ¼) years.
The first gold bull market began in 1968.
A little over thirty (30) years later in 1999 the second gold bull market began.
The first gold bull market ended in January 1980.
The second gold bull market may have ended in November 2010.

                                               GOLD QUARTERLY


A blue and red vertical bar indicates that a monthly Key Reversal has taken place.

A Key Reversal above the upper Bollinger Band has led to a severe correction in

price and time often enough to be concerned about. The monthly bar for the

November price of gold must close below the October close of $1,359.80 in order for

November to remain a Key Reversal month.

                                              GOLD MONTHLY

Subscriptions to the Rosen Market Timing Letter with the Delta Turning Points for gold, silver, stock indices, dollar index, crude oil and many other items are available at:

By Ron Rosen


Simeon - A Picture of Patience

Ronald L. Rosen served in the U.S.Navy, with two combat tours Korean War. He later graduated from New York University and became a Registered Representative, stock and commodity broker with Carl M. Loeb, Rhodes & Co. and then Carter, Berlind and Weill. He retired to become private investor and is a director of the Delta Society International

Disclaimer: The contents of this letter represent the opinions of Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert  Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert are not registered investment advisors. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Ronald L. Rosen and Alistair Gilbert cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.

Ronald Rosen Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


22 Nov 10, 18:40

Well, maybe Rosen is correct and gold is going to reverse. Of course reading his recent reports he has called for a top at 1,000, 1100, 1200, 1300 etc.

Thank goodness I did not sell.

p.s. I am not selling now either!


Liam Slater
22 Nov 10, 19:00
Gold Top Again?

This is your forecast top of Last November -

According to your forecast Gold should be at $650 by now.

I now see from your posts that you call a gold top virtually every month.

23 Nov 10, 09:25
he will be right one day

Hey guys, give him a break! He will be right one of these days....

Even a broken clock will tell the time correct twice a day.

And to think that he was a long term bull and calling for gold at multiple thousands of dollars not so far back? See what trying to trade a correction can do to the orientation of a person? I have always advised against trying to be too smart(sometimes it is ego) timing ocrrections and trying to trade in and out of it. Sooner or later one is going to miss the big one...

And in this case, having missed the trend entirely, he is trying to WILL the market into a major bear phase.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules