Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Crash Edition - 26th Mar 19
Handy Ways to Boost Your Home Income - 26th Mar 19
US Treasury Bond Yield Inversion and Political Fed Cycles - 26th Mar 19
Golan Heights Oil all about the Shekels - 26th Mar 19
Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst - 26th Mar 19
Can We Lock Up Rachel Maddow Now? - 25th Mar 19
Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion - 25th Mar 19
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? - 25th Mar 19
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Gold's 2011 Bullish Outlook as US at Risk of Joining Eurozone in Debt Crisis

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Dec 21, 2010 - 07:19 AM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold is up slightly after yesterday's 0.5% gain and appears to be consolidating just below $1400/oz. Gold is being supported by growing energy and food inflation and continued sovereign debt concerns. Recent days have seen the cost of insuring French debt rise to record levels and France's AAA rating is now at risk due to the spreading Eurozone debt contagion. Nor is the US immune to the debt crisis as many US cities are at risk of defaulting in 2011 (see news below). Gold may be anticipating problems in this regard in 2011 - as it has done in recent years.


Gold is currently trading at $1,386.25/oz, €1,053.70/oz and £894.53/oz.

Gold Inflation Adjusted Index - 40 Year (Quarterly)


The 'Bloomberg Composite Gold Inflation Adjusted Spot Price' is derived from the monthly US Urban consumers price index

Commodity prices have surged to record nominal highs in recent days and oil continues to consolidate near the $90 a barrel mark (NYMEX $89.68 and BRENT $92.92). It is important to realise that while most commodities are at record nominal highs, they remain well below their inflation adjusted highs seen over 30 years ago during the stagflation of the 1970s.

Despite gold's 27% increase so far in 2010, it remains 35% below its inflation adjusted high of January 1980 which was $2,300/oz (using US CPI). Bloomberg's Composite Gold Inflation Adjusted Spot Price Chart shows gold below its quarterly inflation adjusted high (CPI-U) - see chart above.

Continuing weakness in the Baltic Dry Index (see chart below) is a cause of concern and suggests that the global economic recovery remains fragile and economic growth may come under pressure in the coming months.

Baltic Dry Index - 5 Years (Daily)

ETF gold or gold in exchange-traded products, or ETPs, reached a record 2,114.6 metric tonnes as of yesterday (see chart below). Holdings gained 18 percent this year as fiat currencies have come under pressure. The majority of the gains took place between March and July and there has been consolidation in recent months. While the holdings sound very large in tonnage terms - in dollar terms they remain very small when compared to the massive capital flows seen in equity, bond, currency and derivative markets.

ETF Gold Holdings - 1 Year (Daily)

SILVER
Silver is currently trading $29.30/oz, €22.27/oz and £18.91/oz.

PLATINUM GROUP METALS
Platinum is currently trading at $1,709.25, palladium at $747.00/oz and rhodium at $2,225/oz.

NEWS
(The Guardian) -- $2tn debt crisis threatens to bring down 100 US cities
Overdrawn American cities could face financial collapse in 2011, defaulting on hundreds of billions of dollars of borrowings and derailing the US economic recovery. Nor are European cities safe - Florence, Barcelona, Madrid, Venice: all are in trouble

(Financial Times) -- Sugar and coffee hit multi-year highs
Sugar and coffee prices hit multi-year highs on Monday, further boosting food inflation concerns as supply problems mounted after a string of lower-than-expected harvests due to unfavourable weather, analysts said. The surge in sugar and coffee prices comes as other agricultural commodities - from corn and wheat to soyabean and barley - trade near a two-year high. The European Union has delayed a decision about allowing further export licences, with officials in Brussels saying the priority is to supply the internal market. Last week, Portugal ran out of sugar briefly, the first European country to suffer a sugar shortage in at least 30 years.

(Bloomberg) -- Cotton Surges by Exchange Limit to Record on Supply Shortfall
Cotton futures in New York jumped to a record, gaining by the daily limit for a second day, on speculation that global demand led by China will surpass supply.

(Bloomberg) -- Rubber Climbs to Record on Tire Demand, Production Disruptions
Rubber futures climbed to a record on speculation that a global shortage will worsen as tire demand increases and wet weather hurts supplies from producers including Thailand, the biggest grower. The cash price also surged to an all-time high.

(Bloomberg) -- Euro Rises as China Says Taken 'Concrete Action' to Help Europe
The euro rose, ending a two-day decline, after Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said the nation had taken "concrete action" to help the European Union with its debt problems.

(Bloomberg) -- Uranium prices have risen about 20 percent since October because of a limited supply of the nuclear fuel being available to utilities, producers and traders on the spot market, according to data provided by Ux Consulting Co. Uranium oxide concentrate for immediate delivery reached $62.50 a pound in the week through to yesterday, the Roswell, Georgia-based UxC said in a report. That compares with $52 a pound in the week through Oct. 25.

(Telegraph) -- Pimco says 'untenable' policies will lead to eurozone break-up
Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, has called on Greece, Ireland and Portugal to step outside the eurozone temporarily and restructure their debts unless the currency bloc agrees to a radical change of course.

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

Mark O'Byrne
Director

IRL
63
FITZWILLIAM SQUARE
DUBLIN 2

E info@goldcore.com

UK
NO. 1 CORNHILL
LONDON 2
EC3V 3ND

IRL +353 (0)1 632 5010
UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
US +1 (302)635 1160

W www.goldcore.com

WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

GoldCore is committed to complying with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. This means that in the provision of our services, appropriate personal information is processed and kept securely. It also means that we will never sell your details to a third party. The information you provide will remain confidential and may be used for the provision of related services. Such information may be disclosed in confidence to agents or service providers, regulatory bodies and group companies. You have the right to ask for a copy of certain information held by us in our records in return for payment of a small fee. You also have the right to require us to correct any inaccuracies in your information. The details you are being asked to supply may be used to provide you with information about other products and services either from GoldCore or other group companies or to provide services which any member of the group has arranged for you with a third party. If you do not wish to receive such contact, please write to the Marketing Manager GoldCore, 63 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 marking the envelope 'data protection'

GoldCore Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules