Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Yearly Cycle Low Approaching

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Jan 11, 2011 - 07:29 AM GMT

By: Toby_Connor

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSometime between early February and early April the market should drop down into a major yearly cycle low. Last year that cycle low came during the first week of February. 

Since the current daily cycle is now in the timing band for a bottom we should see an intermediate top fairly soon.



Yearly cycle corrections are major corrections, only exceeded by the four year cycle low in severity. So once the correction begins it should be a dozy. The severity of the impending correction will tell us whether the cyclical bull is on its last legs or not.

If the correction retraces back to or maybe a little below the 200 DMA then it will be a normal intermediate correction within a cyclical bull market. 

If, however, the market were to retrace the entire autumn rally and test the summer lows that will be a very strong sign that all the stimulus and money printing was for naught. 

Keep in mind the next four year cycle low is due sometime in 2012. And since bear markets tend to last about a year and a half I strongly suspect this cyclical bull will top sometime this year. 

As a matter of fact the market is already potentially forming a megaphone topping pattern. This pattern of wildly expanding volatility is caused by the underlying debt cancer and inflation trying to pull the market down while at the same time the Fed tries to counter the bear market forces with ever larger monetary stimulus. 

The result is a market being whipped back and forth in larger and larger swings. 



In the end the Fed will fail and the next leg down in the secular bear will begin; only this time will be much worse than the last one. All the Fed will have succeeded in doing is making the problem bigger.

I would suggest if one has retirement funds still invested in the stock market they get them out and back into a money market at this time until we see just how far down the market drops as it moves into the yearly cycle trough.

I will reopen the 15 month subscription briefly for those that want to ride the bull and need a coach to keep them focused. And for those who want a voice of reason to get you out at the top when your emotions will urge you to stay at the party too long.

    Toby Connor
    Gold Scents  

    GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market.   Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers.  If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby.

    © 2010 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in