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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

The Week Ahead in the Financial Markets

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Nov 05, 2007 - 02:02 AM GMT

By: David_Urban

Stock-Markets The US markets remind me specifically of the point in time where Internet stocks were beginning their runs yet not included within the major indices. There was a divergence between the returns made within the S&P 500 and DJIA and those made by groups outside the index. When they were added we entered the final blowoff phase. Expect the same with mining stocks.


The NASDAQ's recent strength looks like a laggard rally and possibly signals a top being put into place. A couple of days ago P. Arthur Huprich of Raymond James pointed out in an interesting piece that MSFT, GOOG, CSCO, AAPL, INTC, ORCL, and RIMM account for 25% of the movement of the NASDAQ. That is very interesting information indeed. This is not to say that we will have a major top but since the tech bubble collapse growth has been difficult to achieve outside of a few firms and tech stocks have become the market laggards.

The Yen depreciating alongside the dollar makes me bearish on the Japanese market despite rising exports and profits. This is another trade in the Asian cycle which is coming to an end as the laggard and tertiary markets begin to outperform the more established ones.

Gold looks ready to make a run at $850 after Friday's strong finish. Silver may be on the verge of making a technical breakout as well. A lot of people are piling into gold and silver which is beginning to make me nervous. We may have a bit of a pullback but get ready for a wild ride the next six months.

Financials will remain in the markets crosshairs with all of the news that is coming out this weekend. I saw this and more in the 3 rd quarter reports. The best thing to say is the quicker we get to liquidation the better. This comes from someone who witnessed the S&L bailouts first hand. All the dancing around is well intentioned but helps no one in the end, although the dance does have a purpose.

By David Urban

http://blog.myspace.com/global112

Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This blog and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided "AS IS" without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile.

David Urban Archive

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