Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
SPX/NDX/NAZ Hit New All-time Highs - 27th May 17
GBPUSD Top in Place, GOLD Price Ready to Rocket? - 27th May 17
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 27th May 17
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell - 27th May 17
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 - 26th May 17
Stock Market & Crude Oil Forecast! - 26th May 17
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 - 26th May 17
Bitcoin and AltCoins Crypto Price Correction - 26th May 17
Bearish Head and Shoulders in EURUSD? - 26th May 17
SELL US Stocks - Massive Market CRASH WARNING! - 26th May 17
EURGBP: A Picture of Elliott Wave Precision - 26th May 17
Credit Downgrades May Prompt Stock Market Capital Shift - 26th May 17
Rosenstein and Mueller: the Regime Change Tag-Team - 25th May 17
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Quarterly Stock and Commodity Markets Brief

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Mar 09, 2011 - 08:31 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShort term traders love volatility and I reckon they are going to get it over the next few months. The catalysts will be oil price instability, rising interest rates worldwide, dollar gyrations and higher inflation. Accordingly note that the VXX is intimating a significant breakout.

The current market correction, which was nicely anticipated, is providing smart traders with ample opportunities. Sectors to watch are oil (ETF: USO), Silver (Ultra ETF: AGQ) Financials (Direxion Bear ETF: FAZ)  Mid Caps (Direxion Bear: TZA) and Technology (Ultra Bull ETF: QLD).


Silver’s AGQ has already gone parabolic and is up nearly 100% since January alone thus it would be wise to wait for pullbacks to enter any new positions on this wonderful instrument.

If USO solidly breaks 42.50 chances are that over the course of a year it could double in price particularly should the dollar breakdown continue.

The April earnings season is going to be particularly interesting. Will gas price instability coupled with upward trending cost of credit dampen consumer sentiment and future sales projections? If earnings estimates start regressing will this herald the end of the March 2009 bull run?  Will the game changing political tsunami sweeping the Middle East penetrate China and finally destabilise the most totalitarian communist regime in the world after North Korea?

The political and economic landscape in Europe is no more stable than elsewhere. The Euro crisis has been parked for the moment but has not gone away. For example the new administration in Ireland is in no mood to carry the full cost of implementing the austere economic directives emanating from Brussels. Ireland can very feasibly “burn” up to 20 billion Euro of senior unsecured bondholder debt in its banks. The European commission does not want this to happen as it fears such a move, by a full Euro member, could cause bond contagion across the zone thus adversely affecting confidence and raising future Euro bond rates. A senior Irish politician Mr, John Bruton (European Ambassador to the USA) has stated on the record that the European Central Bank shared some of the blame for the Irish banking crisis because it failed to implement its supervisory responsibilities under the Maastricht treaty. He wants all Euro members to shares the Irish pain through lower bailout rates and longer loan repayment timelines. Many see his point. Thus clearly something has got to give. The situation is not helped by the fact that the German chancellor Angela Merkel‘s party is facing no less that 8 regional elections and is under serious political pressure from conservative opposition.

The situation in England grows more alarming every passing month. The austerity measures being implemented by the conservative /liberal coalition are savage and deep due to its one trillion sterling national debt. It is now dawning that the negative GDP figures reported for the end of December may not be totally weather related and there is real fear that a double dip recession is in the offing.

All in all, given the above, I reiterate that the next two to three months should bring lots of volatility to hungry traders. A point every investor should note is that this environment is pay-dirt for quant players who love to fake short term direction. Experienced market watchers would have noted that old technical indicators no longer work and must develop counter-active strategies. Failure to do so will bring failure as high frequency traders now make up over 50% of all trades. Ignore this market fact at your peril.

VXX: 1 Day Chart:

USO: OIL ETF 9 Day Chart

AGQ: Silver Ultra ETF 1 Day Chart

FAZ: Financial Direxion ETF 1 Day Chart

TZA: Small Cap Direxion ETF 1 Day Chart

QLD: Technology Ultra ETF 1 Day Chart


By Christopher M. Quigley
B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin and holds a Batchelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College/College of Commerce, Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the Stock Market in 1989. in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last decade as a result of research, study, experience and successful application. This course marries Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and focuses on 3 specific approaches. Namely: Momentum, Value and Pension Strategies.

Mr. Quigley is now based in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2011 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife