Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! - 24th Jan 20
Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Waves Trend Forecast 2020 - Video - 24th Jan 20
AMD Multi-cores vs INTEL Turbo Cores - Best Gaming CPUs 2020 - 3900x, 3950x, 9900K, or 9900KS - 24th Jan 20
Choosing the Best Garage Floor Containment Mats - 23rd Jan 20
Understanding the Benefits of Cannabis Tea - 23rd Jan 20
The Next Catalyst for Gold - 23rd Jan 20
5 Cyber-security considerations for 2020 - 23rd Jan 20
Car insurance: what the latest modifications could mean for your premiums - 23rd Jan 20
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Setting Up For Another Rally - 22nd Jan 20
Debt the Only 'Bubble' That Counts, Buy Gold and Silver! - 22nd Jan 20
AMAZON (AMZN) - Primary AI Tech Stock Investing 2020 and Beyond - Video - 21st Jan 20
What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? - 21st Jan 20
Corporate Earnings Setup Rally To Stock Market Peak - 21st Jan 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 - 21st Jan 20
How to Write a Good Finance College Essay  - 21st Jan 20
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Quarterly Stock and Commodity Markets Brief

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Mar 09, 2011 - 08:31 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShort term traders love volatility and I reckon they are going to get it over the next few months. The catalysts will be oil price instability, rising interest rates worldwide, dollar gyrations and higher inflation. Accordingly note that the VXX is intimating a significant breakout.

The current market correction, which was nicely anticipated, is providing smart traders with ample opportunities. Sectors to watch are oil (ETF: USO), Silver (Ultra ETF: AGQ) Financials (Direxion Bear ETF: FAZ)  Mid Caps (Direxion Bear: TZA) and Technology (Ultra Bull ETF: QLD).


Silver’s AGQ has already gone parabolic and is up nearly 100% since January alone thus it would be wise to wait for pullbacks to enter any new positions on this wonderful instrument.

If USO solidly breaks 42.50 chances are that over the course of a year it could double in price particularly should the dollar breakdown continue.

The April earnings season is going to be particularly interesting. Will gas price instability coupled with upward trending cost of credit dampen consumer sentiment and future sales projections? If earnings estimates start regressing will this herald the end of the March 2009 bull run?  Will the game changing political tsunami sweeping the Middle East penetrate China and finally destabilise the most totalitarian communist regime in the world after North Korea?

The political and economic landscape in Europe is no more stable than elsewhere. The Euro crisis has been parked for the moment but has not gone away. For example the new administration in Ireland is in no mood to carry the full cost of implementing the austere economic directives emanating from Brussels. Ireland can very feasibly “burn” up to 20 billion Euro of senior unsecured bondholder debt in its banks. The European commission does not want this to happen as it fears such a move, by a full Euro member, could cause bond contagion across the zone thus adversely affecting confidence and raising future Euro bond rates. A senior Irish politician Mr, John Bruton (European Ambassador to the USA) has stated on the record that the European Central Bank shared some of the blame for the Irish banking crisis because it failed to implement its supervisory responsibilities under the Maastricht treaty. He wants all Euro members to shares the Irish pain through lower bailout rates and longer loan repayment timelines. Many see his point. Thus clearly something has got to give. The situation is not helped by the fact that the German chancellor Angela Merkel‘s party is facing no less that 8 regional elections and is under serious political pressure from conservative opposition.

The situation in England grows more alarming every passing month. The austerity measures being implemented by the conservative /liberal coalition are savage and deep due to its one trillion sterling national debt. It is now dawning that the negative GDP figures reported for the end of December may not be totally weather related and there is real fear that a double dip recession is in the offing.

All in all, given the above, I reiterate that the next two to three months should bring lots of volatility to hungry traders. A point every investor should note is that this environment is pay-dirt for quant players who love to fake short term direction. Experienced market watchers would have noted that old technical indicators no longer work and must develop counter-active strategies. Failure to do so will bring failure as high frequency traders now make up over 50% of all trades. Ignore this market fact at your peril.

VXX: 1 Day Chart:

USO: OIL ETF 9 Day Chart

AGQ: Silver Ultra ETF 1 Day Chart

FAZ: Financial Direxion ETF 1 Day Chart

TZA: Small Cap Direxion ETF 1 Day Chart

QLD: Technology Ultra ETF 1 Day Chart


By Christopher M. Quigley
B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin and holds a Batchelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College/College of Commerce, Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the Stock Market in 1989. in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last decade as a result of research, study, experience and successful application. This course marries Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and focuses on 3 specific approaches. Namely: Momentum, Value and Pension Strategies.

Mr. Quigley is now based in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2011 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules