Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - James Burgess
3.Gold Price Trend Analysis - - Nadeem_Walayatt
4.The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - Richard_Mills
5.Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
7.Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - P_Radomski_CFA
8.Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Ellen_Brown
9.Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - Zeal_LLC
10.The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation - Plunger
Last 7 days
2019’s Hottest Commodity Is About To Explode - 15th Oct 18
Keep A Proper Perspective About Stock Market Recent Move - 15th Oct 18
Is the Stocks Bull Dead? - 15th Oct 18
Stock Market Bottoms are a Process - 15th Oct 18
Fed is Doing More Than Just Raising Rates - 14th Oct 18
Stock Markets Last Cheap Sector - Gold - 14th Oct 18
Next Points for Crude Oil Bears - 13th Oct 18
Stock Market Crash: Time to Buy Stocks? - 12th Oct 18
Sheffield Best Secondary School Clusters for 2018-19 Place Applications - 12th Oct 18
Trump’s Tariffs Echo US Trade Policy That Led to the Great Depression - 12th Oct 18
US Dollar Engulfing Bearish Pattern Warns Of Dollar Weakness - 12th Oct 18
Stock Market Storm Crash, Dow Plunges to Trend Forecast! - 12th Oct 18
SP500 Stock Market Sell Off Well Forecast by President Trump - 11th Oct 18
USD and US Tr. Yields Retreat, GBP Gains on Brexit-deal Report - 11th Oct 18
Loss Of Yield Curve "Shock Absorber" Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets & Housing - 11th Oct 18
Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? - 11th Oct 18
Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now - 10th Oct 18
Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast - 10th Oct 18
Society Trends To Keep in Mind in the USA - 10th Oct 18
[eBook] How to Identify Turning Points in the Market - 10th Oct 18
Euro Vulnerable as Slowing Growth Reveals Underlying Issues - 9th Oct 18
Construction Companies to Watch For in 2019 - 9th Oct 18
ECB Meeting Minutes and US Inflation Data in Focus - 9th Oct 18
Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked - 9th Oct 18
Unintended Consequences of Expanding Sheffield's Best Ranking State Secondary Schools - 9th Oct 18
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update - 9th Oct 18
Inflation Is Starting To Heat Up - 8th Oct 18
Stock Market Seasonal Influence at Work - 8th Oct 18
Barrick Randgold Deal Breathes New Life into Gold - 8th Oct 18
Stock Market Sell Off, Dollar Rally Expected, Now What? - 8th Oct 18
The Chartology of Gold and Silver - 8th Oct 18
The Income for Life Playbook - 8th Oct 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Japanese Yen Big Surprise

Currencies / Japanese Yen Mar 29, 2011 - 12:13 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs a followup to our recent long term report on the Japan Nikkei equity index we present our a long term analysis on the JPYUSD. The Yen is a western economy currency which generally follows the CHFUSD long term currency cycle model, as opposed to commodity sensitive currencies like the AUDUSD, CADUSD and ZARUSD. The CHFUSD model displays Cyclical tops and bottoms every 16-17 years, with the bottoms occurring only 6-7 years after the tops. The long term charts of the JPYUSD display this currency cycle quite well with a slight variation at the lows.


The above chart displays the currency cycle quite well over the past 40 years. Notice the Cyclical tops in 1978, 1995, and the rise into the next scheduled top in 2012. The Cyclical lows, however, occur much more quickly than the general model. Instead of the typical 6-7 year decline the JPYUSD makes a low in 3-4 years and then a secondary (higher) low at the normal end of the 6-7 year decline. This will be important after the JPYUSD tops next year. The monthly JPYUSD chart displays the same pattern from 1980-2011 with the OEW labeling.

A JPYUSD Supercycle bull market began in 1985 at 38.00. Cycle wave [A] contained three Primary waves and ended in 1995 at 123.33. The Cycle wave [B] bear phase unfolded in three Primary waves as well and bottomed in 2001/2002 at 74.00. Since then the Cycle wave [C] bull phase has unfolded, completing two of the Primary waves, and will likely conclude Primary wave C in 2012.

A closer view of Primary wave C  is presented in the JPYUSD weekly chart. Notice Primary C has divided into the typical three Major waves: Major wave A ended in Jan09 at 114.75 and Major wave B in Apr09 at 98.94. Major wave C is dividing into the typical three Intermediate waves: Int. wave A ended in Nov09 at 116.21 and Int. wave B ended in Apr10 at 105.36. Therefore the JPYUSD is currently in Int. wave C, of Major wave C, of Primary wave C, of Cycle wave [C] of a multi-decade Supercycle bull market. Fibonacci price analysis of the final waves of this bull market suggest the following upside price target: @ 133.1 Major C = Major A, and @ 133.2 Int. C = 1.62 Int. A. The JPYUSD appears to have a lot more to go on the upside before topping in 2012. To follow this currency pair with us go to page 15 on the following

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules