Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Debunking Gold Bears

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Mar 29, 2011 - 12:21 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

In this missive we reply to the supposed reasons against investing in Gold.

Point: If you bought Gold in 1980, you were in the red for many years.


In only two and a half months, Gold went from $400/oz to over $850/oz. Gold really began to takeoff in the second quarter of 1979 at a price of $250/oz. Some buying came in after Gold's initial crash as it rebounded from $500/oz to $750/oz. The point is Gold spent only nine months above $500/oz. The spike was extremely short-lived. Very few people bought in above $500/oz. Gold bears would have you believe "the public" came in at $800/oz. There wasn't enough time for that. The bubble itself was very quick and over within months.

Point: Since 1980 stocks have outperformed Gold. Stocks for the long run!

Ah yes. Pick an arbitrary date to make your point. How about 2000? 1965? The point is there is a time and season for every asset class. There is always a bull market somewhere. The objective is to find the major trends early and ride them. Investing in stocks in 2000 was a disastrous decision. By 2020, investing in Gold might be disastrous but certainly not now.

Point: Gold is a bad inflation hedge. Look what happened in the 1980s and 1990s.

Yes, we had inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. However, it was disinflation. Long-term inflation rates were coming down. Gold does well ahead of rising inflation or in periods of hyperinflation and deflation. If inflation is low and relatively stable then Gold will not perform well.

Point: What if we have deflation?

Deflation acts as a catalyst for Gold and gold shares. Gold held its value during 1929-1932 while the gold stocks bottomed in 1931 and outperformed for four years. Remember the deflation fears in 2002? Gold had a great run from there on. Sure the 2008 crash hurt but Gold and gold stocks were the first sectors to recover and make new highs. Growing worries of deflation would act as a catalyst for the sector. Remember, in a deflationary period cash is king. However, if all governments are highly indebted (as in now) then Gold also functions as cash.

Point: We won't have rising inflation because banks won't lend and consumers won't spend. The economy is too weak.

There is a difference between inflation and hyperinflation. Inflation is caused by monetary stimulus, bank lending and deficit spending whereas hyperinflation is quite different. In fact, it is a weak economy and deflation that causes hyperinflation in many countries. When a government can't borrow and tax revenues are falling, severe inflation is inevitable. Mind you, we aren't predicting this in the western world. However, when one looks at the US, Europe and Japan, it is impossible that these economies can grow their way out of the debt burden. Hence, they are periodically monetizing debt.

Point: Interest rates will rise and that will support fiat currencies and crush Gold.

Hello? The 1970s? I think that was a pretty good time for precious metals and terrible for Bonds. Western nations are so indebted (particularly the US and Japan) that they can't afford higher interest rates. We've written about this in the past. Higher interest rates will only exacerbate the problem and serve as a major catalyst for the bull market in hard assets.

Point: Gold is a crowded trade and a bubble.

First of all, ignore anyone who calls Gold a trade. It's a bull market not a trade. A trade makes it sound like it is a fad and aberration. Yes, there will be wild swings both ways but the global allocation to Gold and gold shares is 1%. Its estimated that the allocation to Gold and gold shares in pension funds is 0.3%. Does that sound like a bubble? Not even close. Good God, can you imagine if that figure went to 5%?

Point: Gold is just a rock with no utility.

Gold is money and has been throughout history. When governments and their finances are stable, Gold becomes valued as a commodity rather than a currency and its then when its utility is diminished. When government finances are unstable, Gold becomes the money of choice. Saying Gold is just a rock is really ignorant.

Point: You can't eat Gold.

I didn't know the US Dollar had any nutritional value.

If you are looking for more professional guidance to help you navigate this market, then consider a free 14-day trial to our premium service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@Trendsman.com
Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules