Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Tesco Shelves, Stock Piling, Hoarding Preppers - 22nd Mar 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic as Government Start to Ramp Up Testing - 21st Mar 20
Your Investment Portfolio for the Next Decade—Fix It with the “Anti-Stock” - 21st Mar 20
CORONA HOAX: This Is Almost Completely Contrived and Here’s Proof - 21st Mar 20
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 - 21st Mar 20
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test - 21st Mar 20
Napag and Napag Trading Best Petroleum & Crude Oil Company - 21st Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - Government PANICs! Sterling Crashes! - 20th Mar 20
UK Critical Care Nurse Cries at Empty SuperMarket Shelves, Coronavirus Panic Buying Stockpiling - 20th Mar 20
Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. It’s a War - 20th Mar 20
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin - 20th Mar 20
Four Key Stock Market Questions To This Coronavirus Crisis Everyone is Asking - 20th Mar 20
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter - 20th Mar 20
The Coronavirus Contraction - Only Cooperation Can Defeat Impending Global Crisis - 20th Mar 20
Is This What Peak Market Fear Looks Like? - 20th Mar 20
Alessandro De Dorides - Business Consultant - 20th Mar 20
Why a Second Depression is Possible but Not Likely - 20th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Stock Market New High is Possible

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Apr 22, 2011 - 02:47 AM GMT

By: Bob_Clark


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the stock market starts to buck, investors wonder what is going to happen next.  My analysis suggests that there may be one more new high left before we see a bigger correction.
Tuesday evening we got the latest earnings numbers from Intel and IBM and they were well received. Now the question is.  Will good earnings be enough to get prices moving back up?

If you have followed me and have read my past articles, you will know that by using cyclical modeling and Fractal analysis, it is possible to predict what the market will do with remarkable accuracy.  
It also allows us to enter the markets at less risky points in time, when the odds of success are much higher.  That is very important if you are using leverage to hedge against inflation and the hidden tax that you pay on your illusory capital gains.  More leverage equals more risk.  That is when precision becomes important. 
The truth is, that being able to forecast the larger market swings is key to increased portfolio performance.  For example I was able to improve my clients bottom line by selling their holdings in GLD at $138 and re entering at $128 as you can see from this article. What is wrong with gold. That was almost an 8 % bottom line improvement. In an account margined  50 % (increased leverage) it added 12 %.
The mood is bullish 
First lets take a quick look at what the public and many funds are thinking and doing, by studying the latest Investors Intelligence data in chart form.
We see there is no fear. There are buyers on every dip. 
When we subtract the percentage of bears from the percentage of bulls, we are at record levels of extreme bullishness, going back many years.  Notice what happened last year at this time when we were at high levels of bullishness.

It's a model market 
Today I have used cyclical modeling and fractal analysis to look at the general market.  Below I have extrapolated time and price based projections onto the chart.  It shows how I expect the stock market to act over the next month or more. 
The orange arcs represent the 4 month cycle that I use to trade with.  It has remained consistent over the years, although it does get fuzzy from time to time.  It will shift to the right or left, but usually it is accurate within a fairly tight variable.  I have also put in the 1 year cycle which is also usually reliable.
Here is how I see the current cyclical environment. 
Lets start with the big cycles.  The ones that are even bigger than the 1 year cycle.  They are going up.  We know this because the one year cycle is making higher highs and higher lows. It is also topping late in it's cycle.  In cyclical analysis, late tops are known as late translation.  It is a sign that the larger dominant cycles are still pushing hard up.  
We see that the 1 year cycle is starting to go down to make it's next low and is probably not going to give much upside lift for the next couple of months.  In fact it should be exerting a downward bias.
So why do I think we will go higher?
It appears the 4 month cycle is now in the ascendancy again and should give lift for another month (green arrow).  There is also a 1 month cycle, which I have marked in blue. It has been coming in at the end of each month. We see a clear mid month low last month. We can expect that slight change in timing will cause some confusion as we get closer to the end of this month.  It, combined with the lift from the 4 month cycle, should give enough upward momentum to make one last high next month. 

Then I add Fractals
Once I have my cyclical model in place, I use fractal analysis to confirm the probability of one last new high and to pinpoint targets of price and time.  I generated 3 different fractal data points, which I have marked in with different colored dots.  The dots represent the time and price where the move should change direction.
Interestingly, none of the variables I plugged in, said we will not go to a new high. Two were almost identical. 
Bottom line
I call this a "getting blood from a stone" trade.
We are clearly late in the 1 year cycle and a look at the investor sentiment gauges shows extreme bullishness.  Therefore I subscribe to the "if there are that many people, dumb enough to be buying this high, then the Fat Boys will be happy to jig the price higher and sell to them" theory.
We should continue to work higher into next month. Possibly grinding higher most of the month. If we bolt higher early in the month and get close to the 1400 level, we will probably top early at that point (blue dot).
If we do not see steam to the upside within the next 2 weeks, then it means we get a  correction into the summer that is bigger than most are expecting.  
Why don't you learn to do it yourself?
If you are struggling or sitting in cash, I will help you move forward.
First read my archived articles. If you like my track record, then take my course or order my videos.  
I have a structured approach to investing that has worked consistently for 20 years. It lets you turn volatility and inflation into wealth.
I teach you how to take tiny risks, to capture big gains.
I have packed a 5 video set with a trading and investing method that works.  How well does it work?  I teach my course trading with my own money. I have never had a failed student.
Low maintenance, long term trend following
I have a very simple trend following technique that has not given a false signal in the 15 years I have been used it.  I am not a big fan of moving averages because of the whip saw losses they generate, but this one is something else. It is available on my website, with instructions on how to use it for a small donation.
The Fat Boy can make you rich. Trade with them or be their victim.

    Bob Clark is a professional trader with over twenty years experience, he also provides real time online trading instruction, publishes a daily email trading advisory and maintains a web blog at  his email is

    © 2011 Copyright Bob Clark - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules