Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think - 19th Sep 20
A Virus So Deadly, The Government Has to Test You to See If You Have It - 19th Sep 20
Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? - 19th Sep 20
RTX 3080 Mania, Ebay Scalpers Crazy Prices £62,000 Trollers Insane Bids for a £649 GPU! - 19th Sep 20
A Greater Economic Depression For The 21st Century - 19th Sep 20
The United Floor in Stocks - 19th Sep 20
Mobile Gaming Market Trends And The Expected Future Developments - 19th Sep 20
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing - 18th Sep 20
It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 - 18th Sep 20
Forget AMD RDNA2 and Buy Nvidia RTX 3080 FE GPU's NOW Before Price - 18th Sep 20
Best Back to School / University Black Face Masks Quick and Easy from Amazon - 18th Sep 20
3 Types of Loans to Buy an Existing Business - 18th Sep 20
How to tell Budgie Gender, Male or Female Sex for Young and Mature Parakeets - 18th Sep 20
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead - 17th Sep 20
Peak Financialism And Post-Capitalist Economics - 17th Sep 20
Challenges of Working from Home - 17th Sep 20
Sheffield Heading for Coronavirus Lockdown as Covid Deaths Pass 432 - 17th Sep 20
What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? - 16th Sep 20
President Trump and Crimes Against Humanity - 16th Sep 20
Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals - 16th Sep 20
Why the Knives Are Out for Trump’s Fed Critic Judy Shelton - 16th Sep 20
Operation Moonshot: Get Ready for Millions of New COVAIDS Positives in the UK! - 16th Sep 20
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective - 15th Sep 20
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania - 15th Sep 20
Three Key Principles for Successful Disruption Investors - 15th Sep 20
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns of 10% Inflation - 15th Sep 20
Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation - 15th Sep 20
GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA - 14th Sep 20
Why Bill Gates Is Betting Millions on Synthetic Biology - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September - 14th Sep 20
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 14th Sep 20
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On - 14th Sep 20
Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
The Silver Big Prize - 13th Sep 20
U.S. Shares Plunged. Is Gold Next? - 13th Sep 20
Why Are 7,500 Oil Barrels Floating on this London Lake? - 13th Sep 20
Sheffield 432 Covid-19 Deaths, Last City Centre Shop Before Next Lockdown - 13th Sep 20
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open - 13th Sep 20
Gold And Silver Up, Down, Sideways, Up - 13th Sep 20
Does the Stock Market Really "See" the Future? - 12th Sept 20
Basel III and Gold, Silver and Platinum - 12th Sept 20
Tech Stocks FANG Index Nearing Critical Support – Could Breakout At Any Moment - 12th Sept 20
The Tech Stocks Quantum AI EXPLOSION is Coming! - 12th Sept 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 4000 Questions Answered on Cores, Prices, Benchmarks and Threadripper Launch - 12th Sept 20
The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
Gold / Silver Ratio: Slowly I Toined… - 11th Sep 20
Stock Market Correction or Reversal? The Jury Isn't Out! - 11th Sep 20
Crude Oil – The Bearish Outlook Remains - 11th Sep 20
Crude Oil Breaks Lower – Sparking Fears Of Another Sub $30 Price Collapse - 11th Sep 20
Inflation by Fiat - 10th Sep 20
Unemployment Rate Drops. Will It Drag Gold Down? - 10th Sep 20
How Does The Global Economy Recover After This Global Pandemic? - 10th Sep 20
The Best Mobile Casino - 10th Sep 20
QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 4800x 10 Core 5ghz CPU, Cinebench Benchmark Scores (Est.) - 9th Sep 20
Stock Traders’ Dreams Come True – Big Technical Price Swings Pending on SP500 - 9th Sep 20
Should You Be Concerned About The Stock Market Big Downside Rotation? - 9th Sep 20
Options Traders Keep "Opting" for Even Higher Stock Market Prices - 8th Sep 20
Gold Stocks in Correction Mode - 8th Sep 20
The law of long-term time preference and Gold ownership - 8th Sep 20
Gold Bull Markets: History and Prospects Ahead - 8th Sep 20
Sheffield City Centre Coronavirus Shopping Opera Ahead of Second Covid-19 Peak - 8th Sep 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

What Is The Real Significance of Bin Laden's Death?

Politics / Al-Qeeda May 03, 2011 - 09:26 AM GMT

By: DK_Matai

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe asked a select group of senior executives in regard to the significance of Osama bin Laden's death from their perspective. We also asked: What are the consequences of this development? The perspective of Nigel Churton, vice-chairman of Control Risks Group, based in London, UK, is worth noting. He wrote the following for the ATCA 5000:


Osama bin Laden (1957-2011)

Osama bin Laden's death is of great significance to a number of different constituencies -- including the US, Pakistan and Al-Qaeda -- for a variety of different reasons.

1. US: He has been public enemy number one going back long before 9/11. That event ultimately wrote his death warrant. The US has a long memory and it will not and did not give up the chase. In addition, since George W Bush, the US has had a policy of pre-emption and extra territorial activity in that they vowed never to let an attack happen again on their mainland if at all possible; and they would strike at its roots wherever those may be. Recent examples are Yemen and Pakistan.

Reaction and Retaliation: The next few days will be important for US Embassies abroad and other overt symbols of US power, as we could expect "lone wolves" to try and carry out suicide attacks or other simple shooting/bomb attacks on such properties. There will, of course, be an equal and opposite reaction at this time with such places being on the highest states of alert and almost in "lock down mode." Any major attack will take longer to plan and is dependent on the latent ability of Al-Qaeda central and major franchise groups to mount a "spectacular" -- mass casualty -- attack against an iconic US target.

2. Pakistan: That this event took place only 36 miles north of Islamabad and in a place where apparently Osama bin Laden had been resident for up to four years demonstrates the conundrum that is Pakistan. The position and role of Pakistan within the sub-continent and with its neighbours whilst at the same time trying to keep a foot firmly planted in the West -- US and UK particularly -- makes walking along a razor blade edge look easy! Note the role of the ISI, who have been at times supporting the policy of the West and particularly the CIA, when the Mujaheddin were fighting the Russians. Many of the contacts they made then are the Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership today. They have always been allowed a long leash by recent political leaders, either consciously or unconsciously, as all with the exception of Musharraf have been wary of them.

Given the whole issue of the North-West territories and the large amounts of Taliban and other fighters in those areas and elsewhere in Pakistan, and sympathisers in major cities, we would expect to see some immediate backlash against Western targets. This may continue for some time. The Pakistan army and police will react with care to allow the steam to be let off whilst trying to ensure there is no outrageous incident, which could cause huge embarrassment to them. Also up in the North-West territories the army will need to be on high alert as they must expect some attacks in anger and also the NATO led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan can expect a spike in revenge activity.

The longer term relationship between the West and Pakistan will continue largely as is with help both ways as appropriate, but with the West remaining frustrated by the largely moribund government under Al-Zardari. We can expect to see a lot of shuttle diplomacy over the coming weeks largely to offer support and to thank them for their help in this matter.

3. Al-Qaeda: Al-Qaeda central has been eroded over time but Al-Zwahari as far as we know remains alive. The number #2 can be expected to make some powerful statements trying to rally the faithful to arms. They clearly still have clout and money and would like to mount a major spectacular event against the US or UK if at all possible. The question is who carries it out?

Al-Qaeda franchises such as Al-Qaeda of the Maghreb and South Arabia etc are all alive and well, as are the many other groups in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, who have picked up the mantra. We assess that we can expect to see activities from them in due course. One of the interesting Al-Qaeda habits has been their returning to targets where they haven't been successful before, ie, WTC, the harbour in Aden, the hotels in Amman. One would expect them to be dusting down all the old failed targets and successful ones and having a good think where to deploy resources. In addition, given their love of public transport, aviation, trains and tubes etc, these will need to be well protected. As ever, shopping malls and hotels will be on their list as they give "very good" returns in terms of casualties and media publicity. In short, nothing changes, just a need for the security forces and police to be on a high state of alert.

The lone operators similar to Richard Reed et al are all out there and can conduct small scale operations, mainly suicide led, either walk in attacks or if they have access to larger amounts of explosives, car bombs.

Muslim communities across Europe: There will be some apprehension here especially if people similar to the far right BNP and neo Nazis etc start to gloat and whoop it up. In addition, amongst those communities there are a number who sympathise with Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda. The police and intelligence services will need to carefully monitor those communities without aggravating them.

Conclusion

Whilst this is a major coup for the US, in reality, other than making Osama bin Laden a martyr finally, it hasn't changed the overall terrorist landscape as his work was largely done some years ago when he exported his lopsided "gospel" and it was picked up by groups and individuals all over the world including the US and UK. Of course, we can expect to see some immediate unrest and attacks mainly in Pakistan and Afghanistan against overtly US and UK targets, the longer term revenge attack against the US and UK will take some time to appear unless there is something very near to fruition now. As ever, whilst governments can take action to protect their property and staff by closing diplomatic missions and withdrawing staff for periods of time, business does not have this option and may once again bear the brunt of any attack in a public place. All they can do is ensure their staff are alert and that their contingency plans are well rehearsed.

[Background]

Nigel Churton, MBE is vice-chairman of Control Risks Group and has responsibility for the company’s liaison with governments, agencies and regulators; he also directs large projects and client relationships. Control Risks is a multi-national business risk consultancy, which has 20 offices around the world in 16 countries. Prior to taking up the role as vice chairman he was the chief executive officer for 17 years and prior to this was executive director responsible for the groups UK operations; spent three years based in Australia creating and developing the company’s business into the Asia Pacific region; and on joining the group was involved in the delivery and case management of services to clients dealing with kidnapping and other forms of commercial extortion. He was educated in the United Kingdom, completed an apprenticeship within the wine and spirits industry and spent 11 years in the British army where he specialised in intelligence and counter terrorism activities. He has lectured extensively around the world and had many articles published in international, national and trade media on security, political stability and criminal activities of all types. He is a director of the Chester Race Company, a freeman of the city of London, the immediate past Master of The Worshipful Company of Distillers, a member of The Guild of Security Professionals, a member of the Board of Directors and a past president of The International Security Management Association (ISMA), a member of The Council of The Security Institute (TSyI) and is a member of The American Society of Industrial Security (ASIS).

We are hosting an Expert roundtable on this issue at ATCA 24/7 on Yammer.

By DK Matai

www.mi2g.net

Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) & The Philanthropia

We welcome your participation in this Socratic dialogue. Please access by clicking here.

ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries: including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250 Editors-in-Chief of major media.

The Philanthropia, founded in 2005, brings together over 1,000 leading individual and private philanthropists, family offices, foundations, private banks, non-governmental organisations and specialist advisors to address complex global challenges such as countering climate chaos, reducing radical poverty and developing global leadership for the younger generation through the appliance of science and technology, leveraging acumen and finance, as well as encouraging collaboration with a strong commitment to ethics. Philanthropia emphasises multi-faith spiritual values: introspection, healthy living and ecology. Philanthropia Targets: Countering climate chaos and carbon neutrality; Eliminating radical poverty -- through micro-credit schemes, empowerment of women and more responsible capitalism; Leadership for the Younger Generation; and Corporate and social responsibility.

© 2011 Copyright DK Matai - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules