Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.China Crash, Greece Collapse, Harbingers of Stock Market Apocalypse Forecast 2015? - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Awaiting Outcome of Greece Crisis - Clive_Maund
3.Gold Price Peculiar 6 Month Cycles - Rambus_Chartology
4.Gold Price Just a Little Bit More - Bob_Loukas
5.8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble - EWI
6.Gold And Silver – Without Either, You Will Be Greeced - Michael_Noonan
7.Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - James_Quinn
8.China Crash, Greece Crisis Harbingers of Stocks Bear Market? Video - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold and Silver Record Shorting - Zeal_LLC
10.Markets Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide... - Clive_Maund
Last 5 days
Will Crude Oil Price Decline Continue? -Video - 28th July 15
Gold & Silver Money Has Devolved Into Debt and Plastic - 28th July 15
Buy and "Own Gold Krugerrands" Says Money Expert Jim Grant, Very Bullish on Gold - 28th July 15
How to Protect Yourself from China's Crashing Stock Market - 28th July 15
Quantum Geopolitics - 28th July 15
Gold Mining Stocks to Weather the Storm - 28th July 15
Stock Market Bulls Beware! - 28th July 15
Will Chinese Stock Market Crash Affect the US? - 27th July 15
Crude Oil Price Under $48! - 27th July 15
Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? - 27th July 15
How to Know When the Gold Bear Market is Over - 27th July 15
Gold Bear Market Phase III - 27th July 15
Silver Bull Hammer Buy Signal - 27th July 15
Gold Cracks Support and Plunges to New Lows - How Low Will Price Go? - 27th July 15
Commodity Markets Breakdown Of 2015 Is Now A Fact - 26th July 15
Gold Price at a Five-Year Low: Here’s What to Do - 26th July 15
Stock Market Primary III Inflection Point - 26th July 15
Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets - 25th July 15
Gold And Silver - The US Dollar Does Not Exist, Part II - 25th July 15
How Wall Street Put Apple Stock in Animal House - 25th July 15
How to Trade Markets Using the Stochastic Oscillator - Video - 24th July 15
A Bond Market Crisis Is Coming... Here's What to Do - 24th July 15
Why There's Resistance to the Iran Nuclear Deal - 24th July 15
Absurd Gold Stock Levels - 24th July 15
Gold Mining Stocks Nearing Rebound - 24th July 15
Misperceptions Create Significant Bond Market Value - 24th July 15
Commodities Distressed Investing - 24th July 15
OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Crude Oil Price - 24th July 15
USD Index Rebounds - 24th July 15
If You’re Worried About a Tech Bubble, You’re Focusing on the Wrong Thing - 24th July 15
Gold Stocks Bear Market Bottom Buying Opportunity? - Video
The Stealth War on the United States - 23rd July 15
Commodity Prices, Gold and Silver Stocks Next Leg Down - 23rd July 15
The ‘Real’ Reason the Fed Wants to Raise Interest Rates - 23rd July 15
Crude Oil Price Slump is a Once in a Decade Opportunity to Make Money, Guaranteed - 23rd July 15
Gold Price Hits a 5-Year Low: How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom - 22nd July 15
Silver and the Deflation Thesis - 22nd July 15
Gold Price Crash - Trend Forecast 2015, Gold Stocks Buying Opportunity? - 22nd July 15
The Three Reasons Behind Iran’s Resistance to the Nuclear Deal - 22nd July 15
Winning the Hunger Games - How to Choose Successful Agriculture Investments - 22nd July 15
Are Free Markets The Solution? - 22nd July 15
Gold Hammered “Unprecedented Attack” - 21st July 15
The Turkish Enigma - 21st July 15
Gold and Silver: The Final Capitulation Commences - 21st July 15
Greater Israel Setback from Iranian Nuclear Agreement - 21st July 15
U.S. Housing Market: Is the Roof About to Cave In (Again)? - 21st July 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

US and UK Housing Market Outlook

Housing-Market / US Housing May 17, 2011 - 06:49 AM GMT

By: John_Hampson

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHouse prices globally tend to follow cycles lasting around 16 years: patterns of 12 years of rises followed by 4 years of declines (at a steeper rate than the rises). With US house prices having peaked in 2006 and UK house prices 2007, cycles suggest a new bull market should now emerge. So do historical measures support this?


Let's look at US real house prices regression to trend and relative to gold:


Source: Calculatedriskblog.com


Source: Sharelynx.com

By both measures a bottom looks close. Now let's do the same for UK housing:


Source: Nationwide

Source: Approximity

Again getting towards a bottom but not as close as in the US, and that fits with housing in the UK having peaked a lttle later.

Looking at other indicators such as median income to median home price, cost of renting versus cost of ownership, and housing value as a percentage of GDP, we see a similar picture of getting back towards reasonable value.


US House Price / Rent Ratio 1987-2011 - Source: Dave Altig

But note that real estate bottoms tend to be rounded. A gradual basing is made and a slow acceleration of prices in a new cyclical bull market gradually gathers pace. I expect US housing to bottom in 2011 and UK housing in 2012 but for the basing period to last until the other side of the next recession, which I forecast to be 2013-2014. After that we will enter a Kondratieff Spring phase in which real estate enters a bull market and stocks begin a secular bull market, and the two asset classes compete in popularity.

Source: The Long Wave Group

In summary I believe we are close to a real estate bottom, but given that the basing phase usually lasts a couple of years or more, it is not yet desirable as an investment. My strategy is to pursue the commodities secular bull into my projected conclusion of 2013, then to look to reinvest into real estate (and stocks) after that.

John Hampson

www.amalgamator.co.uk

John Hampson, UK / Self-taught full-time trading at the global macro level / Future Studies
www.amalgamator.co.uk / Forecasting By Amalgamation.

© 2011 Copyright John Hampson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History