Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19
The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? - 2nd Dec 19
A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker - 2nd Dec 19
See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - 2nd Dec 19
Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Where Are We?  - 1st Dec 19
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? - 1st Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election - 30th Nov 19
Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry - 30th Nov 19
Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation - 30th Nov 19
How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers - 30th Nov 19
Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks - 29th Nov 19
Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs - 29th Nov 19
Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices - 29th Nov 19
We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression - 29th Nov 19
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales - 29th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Gold Secular Bull Market Mania Phase 2011-2013

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 May 23, 2011 - 08:01 AM GMT

By: John_Hampson

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI propose that the third and final phase of gold's secular bull since 2000 has begun in early 2011 and will end in 2013. I suggest that this third phase, a popular and parabolic mania, was announced by both silver's mega move January to April 2011 and the US Dollar's break beneath long term rising support, and will proceed to conclusion in a similar way to the last secular gold bull of the 1970s.



Source: Zealllc


Source: PFS Group

Gold will finally enter genuine bubble territory and conclude in a manner similar to previous asset manias.


For a deeper understanding of forecasting the gold secular bull to end around 2013, please read my previous articles:

End Of The Secular Commodities Bull (March 7th)
Solar Activity And The Financial Markets, Parts I and II (March 30th, April 4th)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's now look near term.

Currently, gold open interest is at a level on par with late January 2011 and late July 2010, the last two significant lows for gold.


Source: Biiwii

And gold has just broken out from its recent consolidation range.

The gold Hulbert sentiment indicator fell to just 7% in early May, a historic contrarian buy range, and excessively bullish sentiment has now truly washed out against silver. However, I believe silver needs more time to consolidate following its parabolic blow-off, so expect gold to outperform for a period.


Source: Sentimentrader.com

The PFS Group long term gold indicator is bullish as of early 2011.


Underlying Source: PFS Group

I previously noted that the 200EMA has supported the secular gold bull to date (see first chart above) and is currently at $1400, which I believe would offer ultimate support for any consolidation move down. However, I believe the COT and sentiment readings together with the recent range break out for gold mean that we may be looking at a new leg up in gold (even if stocks and commodities generally take a mid-year breather), which means the recent bounce at $1462 would be the low.

This idea may also gain strength should the US Dollar stall soon at the backtest of its long term rising support break - around 77.5 on the USD index. Such a stalling may occur if the European debt issues are once again kicked further down the road whilst Euroland interest rate rises and increasing rate differential over the US return to the fore. But as shown in the third chart above, US Dollar weakness is not necessary for gold to advance, whilst real interest rates remain negative.

If I am right that we have entered the final phase of the gold secular bull market then the dynamic of this phase means that there will be little opportunity to time the market. What appears to be potential headwinds for commodities currently (potential economic slowdown and debt issues re-emerging) may well be spun into tailwinds for gold (low rates and stimulus to extend and gold perceived as a safehaven).

The biggest gains of the secular bull will be made in this final phase 3. Summarising the above, I believe the question needs to be asked now, not later: do I have enough money in gold?

John Hampson

www.amalgamator.co.uk

John Hampson, UK / Self-taught full-time trading at the global macro level / Future Studies
www.amalgamator.co.uk / Forecasting By Amalgamation.

© 2011 Copyright John Hampson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules