Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Stock Projection Using Computer Aided Learning

Companies / Trading Systems Jun 17, 2011 - 01:13 PM GMT

By: Submissions

Companies

William (Bill) Licata writes: This article is an introduction into independent research I’ve conducted into stock price forecasting using computer learning algorithms and stock historical data available from several websites on the internet.  The algorithms have been programmed into C language and runs under windows requiring only a couple of inputs (in its simplest application).  


The software has been developed over approximately 6 years as time permitted and was written so the average investor or day trader could use it.   I’m an algorithm developer by profession and write software for the purpose of testing new algorithms or applying existing algorithm to new applications.  There are multiple ways of using the software, this article will show some test results and make some comments on the test results.   The software is not for sale or is it associated with any subscription service ( not to preclude either from happening sometime in the future).  Whether future articles are submitted will depend on the level of interest this article solicits.  The author hopes visitors to the website will find the article of some interest.

Sample of Test Results

Figure 1 is a plot of the profit or loss trading a group of 5-stocks (AAPL, CMG, CREE, MA and NUE) over approximately a 2 week period.  The stock NUE was added to the group as kind of a neutral stock (not in general one getting high level of media interest).  If the profit and loss is added up over the days test, the net profit is approximately $7.00.  That assumes trading 1-share on each of the 5-stocks based on a

Figure 1 Test Results 31 May to 16 June


1-day projection (open to close).   During the 1st week of testing the software does better than the 2nd week.  The 2nd week is the week stock options expire.  Also notice the big spike the 2nd week (down and up) which I’d attribute to options being sold off.   So I’d raise the hypothesis that there is a different trading pattern going on the week options expire.  The software has no access into the number of outstanding options for the current option period.   That information can be added but it not currently part of the software design.  The amount of testing is small so the statistical accuracy is too low to draw solid conclusions.  I do believe the software can be used to detect trading patterns an changes to patterns over time.   Obviously, news is not a software input so news events can cause the software to give incorrect projections.

Software Projections for 17th June

I’m writing this article on Friday the 17th June.   Table 1 shows the software projections for several stocks including the ones used to create Figure 1.   The accuracy of the projections, the reader can decide for themselves after the market closes.  Notice that the table includes 1-day and 5-day projections to point out that the software is not limited to 1-day projections.   The confidence level is my approximate confidence level.  The software does support back testing and computing a confidence level but the confidence I’d use in this Table is not yet computed in the software.  

Table 1 Software Projections for 17 June 2011



Stock

1-Day

5-Day

Confidence
L-Low, M-Med, H-High

AAPL

Buy

Buy

M

AMZN

Sell

Buy

M

CMG

Sell

Buy

M

CREE

Buy

Sell

L

ISRG

Sell

Buy

M

MA

Buy

Sell

L

NTAP

Buy

Buy

M

NUE

Sell

Buy

M

SNDK

Buy

Buy

M

 

Summary
Since this the purpose of this article is to introduce this subject matter to readers of this website, I’ll keep the article relatively brief.   I will point out that I would not trade just based on the information presented in this article.  The software provides additional information not discussed in this article to protect my intellectual property.  The software is also constantly in development since I am a researcher.  The software may contain undetected errors.

By William (Bill) Licata, Ph.D.
Independent  Algorithm Developer & Researcher

Bio
William Licata is a USA engineer who holds a Ph.D. in electrical engineering and has worked for 20+ years in the development of new products with an emphasis on algorithms and software development.   He still work for private companies in the USA but does independent research in his spare time in the area of applications of computer learning to forecasting.  He holds several patents, has published many papers and has taught short courses within the USA and internationally.   Over the last 6 years, he has been studying stock technical analysis to support applying his research to that application.

© 2011 Copyright  William Licata - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules