Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Canadian Cannabis Stocks CRASH as Canopy Growth Hits a Dead End - 14th Dec 19
Retail Sector Isn’t Dead, and These 6% Dividend Paying Stocks Prove It - 14th Dec 19
Top 5 Ways to Add Value to Your Home - 14th Dec 19
Beware Gold Stocks Downside - 13th Dec 19
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? - 13th Dec 19
The ABC’s of Fiat Money - 13th Dec 19
Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result - 13th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis - 12th Dec 19
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) - 12th Dec 19
Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook - 12th Dec 19
How Google Has Become the Worlds Biggest Travel Company - 12th Dec 19
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

Gold Stocks Historic Move Directly Ahead

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Jul 25, 2011 - 01:18 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA variety of factors are lining up that lead us to believe we are on the cusp of a major move higher in the gold stocks. We feel we have been saying this for a while but the reality is we are moving closer and closer to that moment. The fundamentals couldn’t be more obvious and being in the 11th year of a bull market means the timing is ripe. We think you will find the facts and conclusions extracted from the technicals, sentiment, and valuations very compelling. 


First lets look at the technical aspect with the BarronsGoldMiningIndex. Gold Stocks basically consolidated from about 1937 to 1961. The breakout really began in 1964. The consolidation ranged from about 17 to 50. The breakout took the market from 50 to about 220 and in only four years. Today we are on the cusp of a similar breakout. The market made a marginal high in 2008 and another marginal high earlier this year. A sustained move to new highs will qualify as a major multi-decade breakout.   

This breakout will come at a time when the gold stocks are trading at a historical discount. The chart from Erste Group Research below shows the historical and estimated future price to earnings (PE) ratio for the companies in the HUI Gold Bugs Index. As of now, the gold stocks are trading at their lowest PE ratio in the past 11 years. That is ironic considering we are in the second decade of a bull market. In an interview with KingWorldNews, legendary mining executive Pierre Lassonde said the gold stocks, in terms of valuation are probably trading at a 10-20 year low. Obviously, there is plenty of room for valuation expansion.  

Furthermore, the gold stocks are hardly a popular sector. The data from Rydex’ Precious Metals Fund (courtesyofSentimenTrader.com) shows that the sector is underowned in both nominal and real terms. Assets in the fund are just gaining from a two-year low and as a percentage of all sectors, assets are only 14% which is also near a major low.

Moreover, the size of the gold stocks relative to the market is almost akin to a needle in a haystack. The next chart is another great one from the Erste Group. The S&P 500 has a market cap of $10.3 Trillion. The market cap of the HUI, at $220 Billion is only 2% of that. It’s less than Microsoft and Exxon Mobil. 

The gold stocks are ready for a massive, potentially historic breakout and it comes at a time when the sector is underowned, undervalued and a tiny fraction of the overall market. Put it all together and your conclusion should be obvious unless you’ve been conditioned (as sadly many have been) to only focus on conventional asset classes

If you’d like to learn more about how to profit, manage risk and have a professional guide you, then you can learn more about our service here.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Trendsman@Trendsman.com

Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules