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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

US Economy Hurting, Days of Cheap Resources Coming To an End

Commodities / Metals & Mining Dec 05, 2007 - 02:21 PM GMT

By: David_Vaughn

Commodities The well known and respected Gartman Letter remains “steadfastly bullish” on gold. The seasons are bearing down on us. Thanksgiving is now over a week behind us. Christmas is just around the corner and then we have a whole new year to follow these events in repetition. Gold appears to have very strong resistance around 790, but I doubt it will remain in that range for very long. The next major resistance for gold appears to be around 815. And when 815 – 825 is crossed we will probably observe gold making new highs. Always remember its 2 steps forward then 1 step back. I can live with those statistics.

Is the economy really hurting at the moment? We could be over dramatizing things. Let's see how Sears is doing.

“Sears reports 99% drop in Q3 profit; shares tumble” “Sears Holdings (SHLD) reported a 99% drop in third-quarter profit Thursday on weak sales at its Sears and Kmart department stores and continuing investment losses under hedge-fund manager Chairman Edward Lampert.” “Profit fell well short of Wall Street expectations…” USA Today, 11-29-2007

Let's read again that last part.

“Profit fell well short of Wall Street expectations…” USA Today, 11-29-2007

Wall Street expectations were not met. Gee, they were only down 99%. But the economy's doing real well over all isn't it?

“Sears also warned it expects difficult economic conditions to persist in the near-term, with sales and gross margin likely continuing to be pressured through the rest of the year.” USA Today, 11-29-2007

Any other indications the economy may be going through some difficulties?

“U.S. says home prices are falling, first time in 13 years” “U.S. home prices marked a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter, according to government data released Thursday that provide fresh evidence of the housing market slump.” “Sharpest drop in housing prices in index's history” “…our newest data show price weakening in a very significant portion of the country," agency director James Lockhart said in a statement. Prices declined in more than 20 states, he said.”

USA Today, 11-29-2007

Wow! I wonder if it is not for these reasons that gold is hangin' around 800 dollars an ounce? Na. These statistics cannot be correct as everyone knows our economy is invulnerable to significant cracks. These folk that are pessimistic about our economy and who say these things are hanging around the eggnog table too long.

I asked at the beginning of the article if you are “In A Hurry?” If you can have patience with gold mining stocks they will make you money. Got to have patience though. This gold bull market at times is moving at a snail's pace and that is alright by me. We are in a very long term trend and hard commodities will only go higher and higher…including the commodity gold.

The economy some how continues to muddle along and where does gold play in this? Many people following this market since gold cracked 300 have looked at this gold rise as a short lived rally. Everyone knows a rally doesn't last long and is just a quick momentary spike. But that is not what is happening today. Gold continues to more effectively cast off the chains of manipulation and acting like a normal market player.

Observing gold climb 25 dollars in one day and the next falling 25 is really normal action in a real functioning bull market. There are a number of nervous Willies out there who are going to panic if gold does not follow a straight and undeterred path to the moon with no corrections. But that ain't going to happen. More so than ever before we are going to witness extreme powerful volatility. Well, if things are not going to move quickly and like greased lightening what will we do? We will do what is considered the most difficult characteristic of speculation and/or investing. We wait.

Did I say that loud enough? We wait. In our gold newsletter many of the best performers have taken two and more years to reach their present highs. But it is our hope to see something we purchase fly to the moon in the first 30 days. Rarely is that type of performance going to happen. You might find it best to hold your position for six months and longer. You are correct this is not acceptable to most people. They want to see action immediately.

Watching the clock can be exciting. Just watch that minute hand whiz around the clock face to make another loop. Watching the dial on our electric utility meter can be really exciting as this is where the real action is. And we are reminded of this action every month when we pay our electrical utility bill. But seriously, people what I am preaching here is the necessity of buying quality gold mining shares and letting them do their thing.

Subscribe to a good newsletter so you can know what is happening in the market with certainty. Don't spend your time sitting in a dark closet listening to the hands of a clock slowly ticking and ticking. You'll go crazy if you are itching to make a trade every single day. Have patience in the decisions you have made and continue to educate yourself.

Coffee maker died this last week. Had to make a run to Wal-Mart's. Remember when a coffee “maker” was a coffee pot and we would sit around watching the coffee percolate on the stove? The modern generation probably doesn't even know what a real coffee pot looks like. But we remember, right? Remember, it had that little glass bubble on top? Nostalgia does count for a lot. Nostalgia helps us to keep our dreams in perspective. And gold is more that a present day dream. Gold has become today's reality and tomorrow's hope.

“The fact is that Canadian mining stocks are still remarkably cheap.” Financial Post, 11-07

We are living in the last days of cheap resources and commodities. Recognizing these facts Gold Letter, Inc. reviews undervalued gold and other resource stocks under valued and poised to rise in this time of increased demand for resources. Gold will only continue to escalate in value. Take a look at our newsletter and witness our performance overall. GL charts are computer generated and updated every hour while markets are open.

Click here to review Gold Letter

Email me if you have the time.

By David Vaughn
Gold Letter, Inc.

© Copyright 2007, Gold Letter Inc.

“The Worldwatch Institute, an organization that focuses on environmental, social and economic trends, says the current rate of global demand for resources is unsustainable.”  

The publisher and its affiliates, officers, directors and owner may actively trade in investments discussed in this newsletter. They may have positions in the securities recommended and may increase or decrease such positions without notice. The publisher is not a registered investment advisor. Subscribers should not view this publication as offering personalized legal, tax, accounting or investment-related advice. The news and editorial viewpoints, and other information on the investments discussed herein are obtained from sources deemed reliable, but their accuracy is not guaranteed. © Copyright 2007, Gold Letter Inc.

David Vaughn Archive

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