Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19
The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? - 2nd Dec 19
A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker - 2nd Dec 19
See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - 2nd Dec 19
Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Where Are We?  - 1st Dec 19
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? - 1st Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election - 30th Nov 19
Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry - 30th Nov 19
Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation - 30th Nov 19
How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers - 30th Nov 19
Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks - 29th Nov 19
Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs - 29th Nov 19
Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices - 29th Nov 19
We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression - 29th Nov 19
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales - 29th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Changing Markets Risk Perception Across Multiple Asset Classes

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Sep 25, 2011 - 04:13 AM GMT

By: Tony_Pallotta

Stock-Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week saw a lot of technical damage across multiple asset classes as demonstrated by the charts below. The biggest shift though appears to be that of perceived risk. In the past bad news was good news as it would bring further accommodative monetary policy such as QE1 and QE2. Market participants always believed the Bernanke put was alive and well and equity values would be defended. In other words the perception of risk was less severe.


The Fed is not done with "free market intervention" though and like a child in the toy aisle will go down kicking and screaming trying to get what they want. The recent emergency action such as globally coordinated swap lines are such proof as are the eventual TALF programs where US and EU banks can access Fed capital in exchange for any "collateral" they can find.

Like the famous line from Rocky IV "You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man, he's a man" the Fed showed its ability to print at will is constrained though, it too is not a machine. Whether it is political pressure, rising inflation, dissention among members or the simple reality that QE1 and QE2 actually harmed the economy market participants are realizing perhaps the Bernanke Put has a massive theta burn, an expiration date. The next Fed meeting is not until November 1 and beyond any emergency programs equities are now on their own. The training wheels are off.

The market's reaction to this shift in risk perception was made clear this week as demonstrated by the multiple charts below.

Copper: There is no better place to start than the leader and that is the role copper plays in the equity market as a signal of both risk aversion and global economic health. Not only did the bear flag fail so did the multi-month trend. A retest of this trend line in the 3.55 area is highly probable but the selling appears far from over (see COT data below).

Commercial Net Copper Position: The weekly COT report (Commitment Of Trader's) is extremely insightful in understanding where copper is headed next. It foretold of this most recent move lower in copper and once again is signaling further weakness ahead.

SPX: The bear flag has broken with a downside target of 1015 as well as the head and shoulders with a target of 1042. Additional support comes in at the 2010 lows of 1010-1040 which very well will serve as a bounce as shorts cover and longs initiate new positions.

VIX: The bull flag failed and the next target is 48. If this breaks it will signal a level rarely see beyond 2008 and 2001 when fear was prevalent based on economic and geopolitical risks. Current market risk and the bull flag failure favors 48 not holding which should lead to further equity selling pressure and confirmation for shorts on the sidelines to initiate new positions.

US Dollar (DXY): Rather surprising to see the USD breaking above key resistance. The chart below is a five-year weekly that shows a break to new highs, three weeks closing above the 200MA and close above resistance. 87 is now a possible target which would put further selling pressure on equities.

Commercial Net USD Position: Similar to that of copper commercial net positions are anticipating a big move higher in the USD which supports the technical view as well. This data supports the 87 target in the DXY as discussed above.

Margin Debt: Although margin debt is coming down it is still historically high and at levels that preceded major selloffs such as September 2008. In fact margin debt is now higher than that of the dot com boom.

As long as stocks like AAPL continue to set all time highs I believe there is no real fear in the equity markets and thus no forced equity liquidations yet. AAPL may be the best company out there but there is little to no short interest to support selloffs and with everyone all in on the long side and leveraged once selling begins it will be fierce. Remember AAPL is the ATM and when people need to raise cash to meet margin calls they are forced to sell their most liquid positions.

30 Year Yield: The 30 year yield continues to signal further equity selling pressure to come.

Investor Sentiment: The one warning sign facing the short term bearish argument is the rather large shift towards bearish sentiment. There is still room to move more bearish but it should serve as a warning to those looking to add or open short positions. Markets don't have to reverse simply due to historically low bullish readings and it is quite possible the next data set shows a shift away from such high bearish readings.

Bottom line this market is very dangerous right now. As witnessed in August when the SPX appeared "oversold" it still managed to sell off another 200 points and take out support levels as if they never existed. The most recent short covering rally has taken away buying pressure and flushed out weak shorts. With leverage still at multi year highs it appears selling pressure remains the bigger risk to equities.

Most important though is the diminished threat of the Bernanke put which is analogous to a pick up game between a group of guys on the weekend. The "bears" begin to show an ability to outscore the "bulls" only to see Michael Jordan (the most famous Bull) come in from the sidelines and reverse everything. Perhaps Michael Jordan is sidelined for a while finally or at least limited in his ability to score at will.

By Tony Pallotta

http://macrostory.com/

Bio: A Boston native, I now live in Denver, Colorado with my wife and two little girls. I trade for a living and primarily focus on options. I love selling theta and vega and taking the other side of a trade. I have a solid technical analysis background but much prefer the macro trade. Being able to combine both skills and an understanding of my "emotional capital" has helped me in my career.

© 2011 Copyright  Tony Pallotta - Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Paul Prichard
02 Oct 11, 09:11
Oxymoron

“The non-Federal non-Reserve is not done with “free market intervention”.” ?

Such an oxymoron.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules