Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19
Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level - 15th May 19
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected - 15th May 19
US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - 15th May 19
Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' - 15th May 19
Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments - 15th May 19
Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins - 15th May 19
Defense Spending Is Recession Proof - Defense Dividend Stocks - 15th May 19
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II - 14th May 19
The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold - 14th May 19
Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? - 14th May 19
As cryptocurrency wallets become more popular, will cryptocurrencies replace traditional payments? - 14th May 19
How US Debt Will Reach $40 Trillion by 2025 - 14th May 19
Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China - 14th May 19
eBook - Greatest Tool for Trading? - 14th May 19
Classic Pitfalls for Inexperienced Traders - 14th May 19
Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again - 13th May 19
Why Rising Living Standard in China Offers Global Hope - 13th May 19
Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! - 13th May 19
How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends - 13th May 19
Amazon SCAM Deliveries for Fake Verified Purchaser Reviews "Brushing" - 13th May 19
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video - 13th May 19
US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update - 12th May 19
SAMSUNG - BC94.L - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks - 11th May 19
US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver - 11th May 19
Who Has More To Lose In A No Deal Brexit? - 11th May 19
Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside - 11th May 19
Make America’s Economy Great Again - 10th May 19
Big US Stocks’ 2019 Fundamentals - 10th May 19
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - 10th May 19
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? - 10th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Gold Ends September 16% Below Peak

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Sep 30, 2011 - 10:28 AM GMT

By: Adrian_Ash

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWHOLESALE gold prices drifted lower in London after rising in Asia on Friday morning, set for their biggest monthly drop against the Dollar since the Lehmans' crash of Oct. 2008 but finishing the third-quarter of 2011 more than 13% higher.

US equities and crude oil prices have lost 12.5% since end-June. Copper has fallen over 25% and the silver price has lost 13.1%.


New data this morning showed sharper-than-expected falls in French consumer spending and German retail sales.

US consumer confidence and manufacturing reports were due later on Friday.

"The [gold and silver] market suddenly seems quiet in this timezone," said a Hong Kong dealer in a note this morning, noting "much lower" trading volume ahead of China's 'Golden Week' holidays, which start on Saturday.

The China Daily cites one research forecast of 2.2 million people taking a foreign holiday next week, set to spend some $2.1 billion overseas.

"We don't think the October National Day holidays in China will push down gold prices much," a Hong Kong investor is quoted by the Platts news & data agency, "because we see strong investor demand in other areas of the world."

Friday lunchtime in London saw spot gold prices in the wholesale market slip back below $1620 per ounce – a new all-time high when first reached in late July, but almost 16% below the new record high of Sept. 6th.

The US Dollar rose again versus both the Euro and Sterling today, while major government debt prices also pushed higher, nudging 30-year US interest rates back down below 3.00%.

Global stock markets meantime ended their worst 3-month fall since late 2008 by falling more than 1% in Asia and losing over 2% in Europe.

"We now expect the Euro area to slide into recession in the fourth quarter of this year," writes J.P.Morgan economist David Mackie in a new report.

"The rout over the last couple of months in European equities may have been a lot worse than the US," says Albert Edwards at Société Générale, "but it has merely taken us back to the forward [price/earnings ratio] seen at the market's nadir in March 2009.

"Add in the recessionary impact on profits which have already begun to decline and European equity prices might fall a lot further yet."

"[It's] time to think the unthinkable and start printing again," says the Financial Times' economics columnist Martin Wolf.

"The alternative is likely to be a lost decade. The waste is more than unnecessary; it is cruel."

Following yesterday's approval by the Berlin parliament of a 70% rise in Germany's cash guarantees to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), "Eurozone finance ministers are expected to come up with new plans to ease the debt crisis, and the [European Central Bank] may lend a hand when it meets next Thursday" by cutting interest rates, says Steve Barrow at Standard Bank.

"We’d envisage the possibility of a sharp rally but...the effect [will] fizzle out pretty quickly."

Looking back to this month's US monetary policy change, "The Fed’s Operation Twist was largely priced into the fixed income market through a sharp fall in long-term yields between end-July and mid-September," says the latest precious-metals analysis from Nic Brown and the team at French investment bank and bullion dealers Natixis.

"During [that] time, gold prices rallied by more than $240 per ounce. Hence there was little further benefit to be derived from this support," leaving gold to fall sharply after Fed chairman Bernanke confirmed his plan to sell $400 billion of short-term US government debt in exchange for longer-dated Treasury bonds.

However, "with the very real prospect of a messy Greek default over the coming weeks or months, we are hesitant to suggest that the gold price rally is finished just yet," Natixis concludes.

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules