Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Persecution of the Jewish Race Continues, Israel's Dark DNA Secret Revealed - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Gold Price $10,000 Is it Possible? - Jason_Hamlin
3.Bitcoin Price Sign of Reversal? - Mike_McAra
4.U.S. Stock Market Analysis and Forecast - Gary Tanashian
5.Gutting the U.S. Armed Forces, Committing Economic Suicide, France Imploding - Ty_Andros
6.Gold And Silver Price Trend Change Developing, Just Not Confirmed - Michael_Noonan
7.Gold Price Bracing for a Short-Term Correction - Jim_Curry
8.Massive Gold and Silver Futures Buying - Zeal_LLC
9.Most Hated Stocks Bull Market! - Puru_Saxena
10.Silver Up 10.3% YTD - Outperformance To Continue - GoldCore
Last 5 days
MH17 Crash Next Phase Economic Warfare - 22nd July 14
The TRUTH about China’s Massive Gold Hoard - 22nd July 14
Forex Multi-week Consolidation in EUR/USD Ended - 22nd July 14
Bitcoin Price Medium-term Trend Being Tested - 22nd July 14
Beware Of The Flash Mob - 22nd July 14
Can Putin Survive? - 22nd July 14
Israel Assault on Gaza: A Historic Crime, Nazi Like Final Solution - 22nd July 14
Zionist Israel an International Pariah - 22nd July 14
Reflections on the Global Misery Index - 22nd July 14
GDP Economic Statistic : A Brief But Affectionate History - 22nd July 14
TransTech Digest: Super Battery Bio-Power vs. Dirty CleanTech - 21st July 14
How to Find Trading Opportunities in the Currency Markets - 21st July 14
Stock Market One More Pull Back - 21st July 14
The Conquest Of Real - Degenerate Philosophies of the Book - 21st July 14
A Clear Way to Profit from a Graying Population - 21st July 14
Last Chance Critical Financial Market Forecasts Special Total Access - 21st July 14
Stock Market Crash Nightmare! - 21st July 14
Why the Stock Market Is STILL Cheap - 21st July 14
From Gore-Bore To Gore-War - 21st July 14
Gold Price Looking Drab - 21st July 14
An In-Depth Look at Gold Chartology - 21st July 14
The Jewish Selfish Gene, People Chosen by God, Everyone Else is Goyim to Kill - 20th July 14
AUD NZD Taking The Forex Bull By The Horns - 20th July 14
US-backed Israeli Invasion of Gaza Unleashes Death and Destruction - 20th July 14
The Israeli Promised Land Dream - The Criminal Roadmap Towards “Greater Israel”? - 20th July 14
Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to Death - 20th July 14
Sanctions and Airliners - What’s the U.S. Empire’s Agenda? - 19th July 14
Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way - 19th July 14
Choppy Stock Market in Recent Weeks - 19th July 14
Is The Stocks Bull Market Over? - 19th July 14
Edward Snowden Towers Over His Enemies - 19th July 14
Will Gold Price Drag Down the Mining Stocks? - 18th July 14
Will Stock Market Investors Get Out In Time This Time? - 18th July 14
Stealth Tech Stocks Rally Catalysts - 18th July 14
Stock Market - Is It 1999 All Over Again? - 18th July 14
Bitcoin Price Medium-term Trend Being Tested - 18th July 14
Stock Market SPX Highs A Fed Illusion - 18th July 14
American Press Blames Russia for Downed Malaysia Flight MH17 - 18th July 14
Financial Market Forecasts Special Event - 18th July 14
U.S. Housing Buyers Fools Paradise. Lying Spanish Banks... - 18th July 14
U.S. Housing Market in Trouble Again - It’s 2009 All Over Again - 18th July 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices, Expect Lower Lows

Housing-Market / US Housing Oct 03, 2011 - 06:13 AM GMT

By: Bill_Bonner

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCash is still king. Cash is king because non-cash is a commoner and a loser…it’s losing its value. An article in the Financial Times, for example, tells that:

“US inflation expectations at lowest point in year.”


In other words, forget inflation. Forget price increases. It’s cash…cash…cash.

Cash on the barrel…cash in hand…cash and carry. You got cash? You da king!

People expect cash to be more valuable. And if we’re right…it will be more valuable.

Stocks, for example, fell yesterday. The Dow dropped 179 points.

And gold. It lost $34.

Another article in yesterday’s financial press told us that “it’s a great real estate market…if you’re rich.”

Why? Because the rich have cash. They’re the kings, queens and jokers too. And now they can use cash to buy other assets at a discount. They get more for their money. When inflation subsides so do prices. And nowhere have they ebbed more than in the real estate market.

A friend sent us an investment opportunity…a 12-unit apartment building in Florida, a block from the beach. What does something like that go for? Well, in the glory days of the bubble in real estate, it might have sold for $3 million. Today, it’s available for $750,000 – with owner financing at 5%.

Let’s see…if you can get $800 per unit per month…whoa…this could be a good deal. Because you can probably cover the cost of operating and maintenance and still get better than a 5% yield. If that is true, over time, you get the building for free.

But the problem with real estate is that every deal is different. Every toilet backs up in its own unique way…and every roof leaks in a different spot. If you don’t know what you’re doing…don’t do your homework…and can’t manage a property, including collecting the rent from people who don’t have much money, you probably won’t do very well.

Here at The Daily Reckoning we prefer the public markets, where the tenants don’t give you hard-luck stories and the paint doesn’t peel. But what we see in the public markets is a lot worse than what we see in the real estate market. Where can you get a yield of 5% outside of housing?

All over the investment world – except for US government debt – yields will probably go up. Cash in king. But cash is probably going to become even more powerful. In real estate, for example, the bad news is not yet fully priced-in. People assume that prices will hit a bottom and then begin going back up again. They figure they just need to buy at the right time and all will be well. But as we keep pointing out, markets are more like cats than like dogs. They play with their prey…killing them slowly while having some fun at it.

Real estate has already been whacked hard. It’s down 30% to 50% depending on where you look. But is that all there is? Is that the end of it? We don’t think so. The trends that worked so happily together to boost real estate to bubble levels have now become surly and uncooperative.

  • Household income is going down, for example. It is almost back to 1990 levels, erasing 20 years of gains. Who wants to ‘move up’ the real estate ladder when his income is going down?
  • And the rate of new household formation is going down. Instead of setting up new households of their own, the young…and not so young…are moving back in with mom and dad. The unemployment rate for young people is 20% – near Great Depression levels.
  • Population pressure is easing. The rate of immigration, for example, is also going down. There are reports of illegal immigrants returning home in such numbers that there are now more leaving than coming. Besides, with so few jobs opening up, who wants to go to all the trouble to sneak into the country?
  • Most important, the Great Correction is far from over. We’re expecting a long period of stagnation, de-leveraging and depression. Prices don’t go up in a credit contraction. They go down. What we’ve seen so far is probably just the beginning of a long trend that will probably take prices down another 50%.

But wait, we know what you’re thinking. At today’s levels, houses in America are not over-priced. They’re about in line with the very long term trend. They’re about where they should be. And at today’s ultra-low interest rates – mortgages are below 4% – housing is a good deal.

Maybe so. But Mr. Market doesn’t care. Just as he didn’t mind pushing up prices to dizzying heights he also doesn’t mind pushing them down to dreary lows. He’s an equal-opportunity deceiver. First, he made people think that housing always goes up. Now, he’ll make them think that it always goes down. And when he’s finished, you’ll be able to buy a house for about half today’s price.

Of course, then…you won’t want to. Because you will have learned an important lesson that you can pass on to your children: ‘Don’t buy a house. Rent. It’s cheaper.’ Then, perhaps house prices will begin to rise again.

In the meantime…and perhaps for a long time…cash is king.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

Bill Bonner [send him mail] is the author, with Addison Wiggin, of Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of The 21st Century and Empire of Debt: The Rise Of An Epic Financial Crisis and the co-author with Lila Rajiva of Mobs, Messiahs and Markets (Wiley, 2007).

http://www.lewrockwell.com

    © 2011 Copyright The Daily Reckoning, Bill Bonner - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

BILL BONER
04 Oct 11, 05:55
CASH IS QUEEN

I have been saying "cash is king" now for 5 years. The only problem is the "king" don't buy as much as it used to. Go Figure. Maybe we should say "cash is queen". One day we will wake up and say "cash is toilet paper". Then you will thank me we you get that bowel movement and you use Ben Franklins face to clean yourself.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014