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Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Low QE2 Volume and Inside Day Point To More Stock Market Downside

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Nov 03, 2011 - 03:04 AM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Stock-Markets

The media likes to imply the Fed is on the verge of cranking up QE3. Here is Reuters take on Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference:

The Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help an economy that is “close to faltering,” Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday in his bleakest assessment yet of the fragile U.S. recovery.


While QE-friendly ETFs were lifted with the market’s tide on Wednesday, many of them experienced gains on low volume. The table below shows some of the biggest gainers in the wake of QE2, followed by Wednesday’s volume and average daily volume. On Wednesday, big institutions were not buying stocks or the idea the Fed is on the verge of QE3.

As we mentioned on November 2, the ratio of Treasuries (TLT) to TIPS (TIP) indicates fears of deflation continue to outweigh concerns about imminent inflation, which means the market questions the impact of additional Fed intervention.

An inside day occurs when a market trades within the high and low range of the previous day. The S&P 500 had an inside day on Wednesday. While inside days are not the most reliable signal, they can be followed by a continuation of the previous move. With strong down days on Monday and Tuesday, followed by an inside day, we may see weakness on Thursday.

The silver ETF (SLV) has yet to recapture its 22-week moving average, which also leans toward deflationary outcomes. More information can be found in this October 20 article.

Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2011 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

    Chris Ciovacco Archive

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