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Catching a Falling Financial Knife

European Debt Crisis Explained, the Back Door Bazooka Solution

Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis Dec 19, 2011 - 08:58 AM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe concept of a “back-door bazooka” is based on a recent policy change made by the European Central Bank (ECB). Reuters summed up the pros and cons of the stealth bazooka concept this way:

Instead of unlimited bond buying, the ECB will offer banks this week an opportunity to borrow money for three years for the first time, extending the current one year maximum ceiling for refinancing. France hopes banks will use the money to buy euro zone bonds, and ease the upward pressure on yields, but Italy’s Unicredit bank said last week this “wouldn’t be logical” for banks under pressure to reduce risk and rebuild capital.


Given the record bearish stance relative to the euro and the strong correlation between the currency and stocks, the markets may rally in the short-term, with the back-door bazooka adding another reason to assist with the much anticipated Christmas rally. However, as described in the video below, it is unlikely the ECB’s three-year loans will calm the markets longer-term.

We all know debt levels around the globe are high, but when does the level of debt become unsustainable? Kyle Bass, of Hayman Advisors LP, studied sovereign debt levels, the size of a country’s banking system, and government revenues to identify where debt levels cross over into “unsustainable” territory. The video below references Mr. Bass’ research, which identifies problem countries and the importance of their balance of trade.

After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

With the holiday season kicking into full swing, low trading volume should create an environment where volatility will remain the order of the day. If the euro and U.S. dollar make some noise this week, it could get very interesting. All things being equal, a rally in the euro tends to be bullish for stocks (SPY) and commodities (DBC). If the greenback (UUP) continues to strengthen, conservative assets, such as Treasuries (TLT), and shorts (SH) will have the upper hand

Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2011 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

    Chris Ciovacco Archive

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Catching a Falling Financial Knife