Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Gold Stocks Complete First Major Bottom Since 2008

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Jan 06, 2012 - 12:47 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAll bull markets have to endure a plethora of corrections and all bull markets have to endure a handful of major corrections. The gold stocks are no different. In fact, due to nature of the mining business and the high-beta status of these stocks, it is very easy for investors to forget that they (the gold stocks) are in a real structural bull market. Corrections and crashes are commonplace and yes, even in a bull market. Yet in 2011 the gold equities did not crash. They merely digested and consolidated the massive recovery gains from 2009 and 2010. This persistent consolidation has left many scared, frustrated and distrustful of the sector at precisely the wrong time. Gold stocks have quietly completed a major bottom, their first since 2008.


There are several strong reasons why we believe the gold stocks have completed a major bottom. As we discussed in our last article, the bullish percent index (number of stocks on a point and figure chart buy signal) dipped to 10%. The last time this happened was in 2008 when the gold stocks bottomed. The two big downturns in 2008 occurred with the bullish percent index at 30% and 70%. Presently, the entire sector is oversold and thus there is very little room to fall but much room to rebound.

As we see in the chart below, GDX bottomed at the 40-month MA which also supported key bottoms in 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2010. Furthermore, the market bottomed right above $47, the 38% retracement. Most important, instead of following through on its apparent breakdown, the market reversed back above previous support at $52 and is set to close at a three week high.

We also want to note how the market has made major bottoms in 2005, 2008 and at the very end of 2011. Including the low in 2000, that is four major lows for this bull market in its first 11 years. This is similar to a few previous bull markets which include the Nasdaq (80s and 90s) and the gold stocks (60s and 70s).

We see some similarities with the Nasdaq of the 1980s and 1990s. After the genesis of its bull market in 1982, the Nasdaq would form major bottoms in 1984, 1987 and 1990. It wasn't until after that fourth low (in the eleventh year) that the trend began to accelerate.

$COMPAQ Nasdaq Composite Index

With data from BGMI.us, we show the Barrons Gold Mining Index and specifically the bull market from 1961 to 1980. As you can see, the gold stocks would often make key lows every three years. Major buying opportunities occurred especially in 1960, 1963, 1969, 1972 and 1976. Note that the bull market began to accelerate after its fifth major low in late 1972.

Barrons Gold Mining Index

The gold stocks have just made their fourth major low since this bull market began. The bull is moving into its 12th year yet many feel like giving up on the gold stocks. They don't have the understanding or the patience that is required to make money in this sector and in a bull market. They are dismayed by the fact that the metals have far outperformed over the past five years. However, this is nothing new. Check the previous chart and you'll notice that the gold stocks made little progress from 1966 to 1972. The same can be said for the Nasdaq from 1987-1991.

Given all we know, this is likely to be your best buying opportunity for the next few years. The market appears to have bottomed, the technicals are improving and valuations of both producers and juniors are quite compelling. Sounds like a major low to me! If you'd like professional guidance in riding this bull market and uncovering the winning companies then consider learning more about our premium service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@Trendsman.com
Subscription Service

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules