Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 10th July 19
Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season - 10th July 19
Can Gold Recover from Friday’s Strong Payrolls Hit? - 10th July 19
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Has Come True - 10th July 19
LIMITLESS - Improving Cognitive Function and Fighting Brain Ageing Right Now! - 10th July 19
US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher - 10th July 19
Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis - 10th July 19
Stock Market SPX 3000 Dream is Pushed Away: Pullback of 5-10% is Coming - 10th July 19
July 2019 GBPUSD Market Update and Outlook - 10th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

U.S. Unemployment Drops as Employment Reports Widespread Gains, Allows Fed Breathing Space

Economics / Employment Jan 07, 2012 - 07:04 AM GMT

By: Asha_Bangalore

Economics

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.5% in December, down from 8.7% in November. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +200,000 jobs in December vs. +100,000 in November. Private sector jobs increased 212,000 after a gain of 120,000 in November. A net loss of 8,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of October and November.
Private Sector Hourly Earnings: $23.24 in December vs. $23.20 in November; 2.1% y-o-y increase in December vs. 1.9% gain in November.


Table 1 - 01 06 2012

Household Survey – The civilian unemployment rate edged down to 8.5% in December from a revised 8.7% reading in the prior month. The unemployment rate has declined almost one percentage point from the year ago mark of 9.4%. The broad measure of unemployment, which is a sum of the officially unemployed plus those working part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs and those who want to work but have not looked for a job in the past year, fell to 15.2% in December from 15.6% in November; it is down sharply from a 16.6% reading in December 2010. The number of people working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment dropped to 8.428 million in December from 9.205 million a year ago.

Chart 1 - 01 06 2012

Establishment Survey – Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 in December, following a revised gain of 100,000 in November. There was a net loss of 8,000 jobs after revisions to earlier estimates of payroll employment in October and November.

Chart 2 - 01 06 2012


During the twelve months ended December a total of 1.64 million jobs has been created vs. a gain of 940,000 jobs in all of 2010. Private sector employment has advanced by 1.92 million over the past twelve months, while government employment fell 280,000 during the same period.


Chart 3 - 01 06 2012

The diffusion indexes for private sector employment (61.2%) and factory employment (56.8%) indicate that hiring gains were widespread in December and the strongest since April 2011 (see Chart 4).


Chart 4 - 01 06 2012


Highlights of changes in payrolls during December 2011:

Construction: +17,000 vs. -12,000 in November
Manufacturing: +23,000 vs. +1,000 in November
Private sector service employment: +164,000 vs. +126,000 in November
Retail employment: +39,000 vs. +28,000 in November
Professional and business services: +12,000 vs. +19,000 in November
Temporary help: -7,500 vs. +11,200 in November
Financial activities: +2,000 vs. +5,000 in November
Health care: +22,600 vs. +16,000 in November
Government: -12,000 vs. -20,000 in November

The 0.5% jump in manufacturing man-hours index in December bodes positively for industrial production. Hourly earnings rose 0.2% to $23.24 in December, putting the year-to-year increase at 2.1%. The gain in employment and earnings points to a more than moderate increase in personal income during December. The 0.5% increase in the total man-hours index in December puts the quarterly annualized increase at 3.2%, which is consistent with our 3.4% increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2011.

Conclusion – The positive tone of the string of economic data in the first week of the month – ISM manufacturing survey (53.9 vs. 52.7 in November), auto sales (13.48 million in Q4 vs. 12.48 million in Q3, albeit a small decline was recorded in December), and the December employment numbers -- suggest that the Fed has the luxury to watch and wait. In addition, the moderating trend of inflation (see Chart 5) gives the Fed latitude to ease monetary policy if economic activity shows signs of fading in the months ahead.

Chart 5 - 01 06 2012Table 2 - 01 06 2012

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

Copyright © 2011 Asha Bangalore

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisio


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

James Ginn
07 Jan 12, 18:34
What Unemployment ?

Don't get excited... as this is just a peak on a 4 year cycle.


John S. Churchin
15 Jan 12, 06:55
Wait until next month.

Officially 8 million americans will give up looking for work and unemployment will fall to 4.5%.

Asha will have an orgasam and proclaim the Economy has completed it's recovery.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules