Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? - 8th Apr 20
Market Predictions And The Business Implications - 8th Apr 20
When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis - 8th Apr 20
BBC Newsnight Focuses on Tory Leadership Whilst Boris Johnson Fights for his Life! - 8th Apr 20
The Big Short Guides us to What is Next for the Stock Market - 8th Apr 20
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move - 8th Apr 20
The Post CoronaVirus New Normal - 8th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter


Stock Market Uptrend Topping

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Feb 26, 2012 - 03:56 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnother quiet week in the US equity market as the entire range for the week was between SPX 1352 and 1369. While the SPX did not make a new print high, above 1371, it did make a new closing high for the bull market. Now all four major US indices are in new bull market territory. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.6%. Asian markets gained 0.4%, European markets lost 0.2%, and the DJ World index was +0.9%. On the economic front it was a quiet mixed week. On the uptick: consumer sentiment, new home sales, the WLEI, and the monetary base made a new high. On the downtick: existing home sales, FHFA housing prices, the M1 multiplier, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we’ll get a look at the first revision of Q4 GDP, the FED’s beige book, Case-Shiller and PCE prices. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: bull market

With the DOW crossing the 13,005 threshold on friday, historically, and that’s going back over 80 years, this advance from the early October low can no longer be considered a potential Major wave B of an ongoing bear market. As a result we have removed that count and now have all four major US indices in bull markets. Our indicators on the monthly chart continue to rise in a bullish manner.

On the weekly chart we have more of the same. A rising and above neutral MACD, with a rising and now quite overbought RSI. Notice how previous bull market uptrends, of the past 10 years, have peaked both above and below the current RSI level.

Our current bull market count, as you can see, remains the same. A Supercycle wave 2 low in Mar09 at SPX 667. A multi-generational Supercycle wave 3 began at that time. This bull market should be Cycle wave [1] of a five cycle wave supercycle bull market. Primary I completed in May11 at SPX 1371, and Primary wave II in Oct11 at SPX 1075. Primary wave III has been unfolding since that low. Within Primary III we should have five Major waves. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in Oct11 at SPX 1293, and in Nov11 at SPX 1175 respectively. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low. We have been counting this uptrend, from that low, as Intermediate wave i. Major wave 3 should include five intermediate waves. In summary the market is currently in: SC 3, Cycle [1], Primary III, Major 3 and Intermediate wave i. We have put together a tentative roadmap for the rest of this bull market. But are waiting for a confirmed downtrend before making it public.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1369

The current uptrend started in late November at SPX 1159. The market has risen in five Minor waves since that low to friday’s high, or 18% in three months. For the first time since this uptrend began a negative RSI divergence has appeared, along with a weakening MACD. Upside momentum is definitely waning. Our initial fibonacci target for Minor wave 5 was SPX 1367. At this level Minor 5 = 0.618 Minor 1. Our other targets, which are posted on the hourly chart, are SPX 1381, 1408 and 1432. The current high, SPX 1369, falls in between our two OEW pivots: 1363 and 1372. This suggests there is a lot of resistance around current levels.

When this uptrend first began in November we expected it to last about three months and run into significant resistance just above the OEW 1313 pivot. In January that price target was hit during Minor wave 3. This suggested the next important resistance, after a small pullback, would be between the OEW 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. The SPX first entered the 1363 pivot range on February 15th. It has been 7 trading days, and the market has still not cleared this pivot. In early December, at Minor wave 1, the market spent only 4 trading days within the OEW 1261 pivot range before dropping 65 points. This pivot is definitely offering significant resistance.


Support for the SPX remains at the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. As we tracked this uptrend we identified Minor wave 1 at SPX 1267, Minor 2 at SPX 1202, Minor 3 at SPX 1333, Minor 4 at SPX 1300, and Minor wave 5 underway. This uptrend, despite its three month duration, has not been that difficult to track. Now, however, we have arrived at an important juncture.

The internal wave structure of Minor wave 5 appears, at or, near completion. We can count five Minute waves up from the Minor wave 4 low. All rising Minor waves during this uptrend contained five Minute waves. We can also count five, complete or near complete, Micro waves within Minute wave v. It appears, on friday, this uptrend may have ended Micro wave 5, of Minute wave v, of Minor wave 5. This suggests a potential uptrend top is at hand. Heading into next week there are several technical parameters we are tracking.

First, we have drawn on the hourly chart an overhead resistance trendline that has halted every rally during this uptrend. The market may try to tag that trendline again before heading lower, or even break through it if the uptrend is about to extend. Second, the market set up important support at SPX 1352 this week. Should the SPX trade below that level next week the uptrend has likely ended. Third, during this entire uptrend all pullbacks have been limited to 20 points or less, with the exception of Minor waves 2 and 4. Should the market break below, currently SPX 1349, the uptrend is likely over. In summary, there is trendline resistance in the low 1370′s, and two potential downtrend underway signals below SPX 1349 and 1352. Time to be cautious in this bull market.

Short term support is at the OEW 1363 pivot, then SPX 1352 and 1341. Overhead resistance is at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Momentum displays negative divergences on every timeframe up to, and including, the daily charts. The short term OEW charts will turn negative with a drop into the low 1350′s. Next week should be quite important for this uptrend. Best to your trading!


The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net gain of 0.4%. All uptrending.

The European markets were also mixed for a net loss of 0.2%. All uptrending.

The Commodity equity group was mixed as well for a net gain of 2.1%. All uptrending.

The DJ World index is still uptrending with a gain of 0.9% on the week.


Bonds continue to display a weakening uptrend but gained 0.2% on the week.

Crude soared 5.0% this week extending its uptrend to $110.

Gold rose 2.9% for the week extending its uptrend, but has reached an interesting juncture. Should our posted five wave count be correct the uptrend may be nearing an end. If another count we are tracking is in play, then another $100 higher should push gold toward $1900. So we have about $100 risk on the downside from here, or a $100 rally and then the $100 risk. Probability suggests we are currently in a 50/50 situation.

The USD lost 1.2% on the week as its downtrend continues. The EUR gained 2.3% on the week but is nearing resistance around 135.50 and is quite overbought. The JPY lost 1.9%, and appears to be in the process of breaking its multi-year uptrend.


Monday kicks off the week with Pending home sales at 10:00. On tuesday we have Durable goods orders, Case-Shiller and then Consumer confidence. Wednesday looks important, Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI, and the FED’s beige book. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending, and monthly Auto sales. It’s testimony week for the FED. On tuesday, FED governor Duke testifies before the Senate on Housing. Then on wednesday, FED chairman Bernanke testifies before Congress on Monetary policy. Best to your weekend and week!


After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules