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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Current Stock Push Has Hurdles To Clear

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Mar 12, 2012 - 10:24 AM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe rally off the lows of last week has some work to do before it becomes convincing. While the longer-term outlook remains favorable from a technical perspective, the conviction from buyers needs to pick up in the short-term.

When Williams %R, which measures momentum, fails to clear -20 during a rally, the odds of a retest of the recent lows increase. As the orange boxes show below, numerous markets have not yet seen Wm %R clear -20. This is not a big deal, but we would like to see it cleared up before investing additional cash. Gains lasting one or two days could easily clear these conditions.


The candlesticks from last Friday in the charts above and below also show some indecision. Again, not a big deal, but it is just good to be aware of as we kick off a new week.

The equity markets, especially in the U.S., appear to have more upside looking out longer-term. The vast majority of longer-term charts have moved into bullish territory.

Commodities have a much more muted outlook for now, but that could improve in the coming weeks. The U.S. dollar is also holding up relatively well, which typically does not mesh with a “risk on” environment. Therefore, we have a mixed picture of sorts; stocks strong, commodities relatively weak, and a stable U.S. dollar.

The charts of small caps look a little better than those shown above. There was not as much hesitation in their candlesticks late last week (see below).


Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2012 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

    Chris Ciovacco Archive

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