Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Coronavirus Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - Video - 28th Feb 20
Stock Market SPX to Rise back to 3350 - 28th Feb 20
Stock Performance in the Rising Coronavirus Fever - 28th Feb 20
Stock Market SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level - 28th Feb 20
Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger Stocks Bear Market 2020? - 28th Feb 20
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Triggering a Stocks Bear Market? - 27th Feb 20
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt - 27th Feb 20
Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin - 27th Feb 20
A Digital “Fedcoin” May Be Coming… And It Would Be Terrifying - 27th Feb 20
India's Nifty 50 Stocks: Does the Bad Jobs Outlook Spell Trouble for Stocks? - 27th Feb 20
How Crypto Currencies Are Helping Players Go Private - 27th Feb 20 -
Gold and Silver The Die Is Cast - 27th Feb 20
US Economy Permanently Addicted to Zero Interest Rates - 27th Feb 20
Has the Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 27th Feb 20
Advantages of Enrolling in a Retirement Plan - 27th Feb 20 - LS
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! - 26th Feb 20
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 - 26th Feb 20
Fake Markets Are on Collision Course with Reality - 26th Feb 20
Microsoft is Crushing the S&P 500, Secret Trait Of Stocks That Soar 1,000%+ - 26th Feb 20
Europe's Best Ski Resorts For The Ultimate Adventure - 26th Feb 20
Samsung Galaxy S20+ vs Galaxy S10+ Which One to Buy? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears - 26th Feb 20
Is This What Falling Through the Floor Looks Like in Stocks? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Minsky Moment Coming - 26th Feb 20
Why Every Student Should Study Economics - 26th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Over? - 26th Feb 20
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Market Seasonal Trend, Here We Go Again Already?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Mar 24, 2012 - 04:34 AM GMT

By: Sy_Harding

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat is it about the economic recovery so far that allows good news to last for only six months at a time before fears rise again and the economy needs another adrenaline fix from the Fed? The pattern has been clearly reflected in the stock market, which saw its historical pattern of making its gains in the winter months and suffering corrections in the summer months even more pronounced in 2010 and 2011.


And here we go again already?

Just when it seemed we could relax, the U.S. economic recovery surprising with its strength, the Greek debt crisis kicked into the bushes, and most global stock markets in impressive six-month rallies, here comes another set of dark clouds and rumbles of thunder.

Global economic reports were unsettling from all directions this week.

The closely watched 17-nation eurozone PMI index, which measures both manufacturing and service sector strength, dropped to 48.7 in March. That was the eurozone PMI’s third straight monthly reading beneath 50, which is the dividing line between expansion and recessionary contraction, indicating Europe is sinking deeper into recession..

The similar HSBC PMI index for China, the world’s second largest economy, shocked markets, coming in at 48.1, its fifth straight monthly reading beneath 50.

Worries also rose in the Latin America region on warnings from the World Bank that “more than other regions, commodity exporting countries in Latin America [like Brazil and Argentina] would be vulnerable to any decline in commodity prices that might accompany a credit event in Europe.”

At the same time, a research report on Latin America from JP Morgan noted the importance of China, a major buyer of commodities and raw materials from the region, saying, “China’s influence in driving Latin America’s growth has increased sharply since 2008, so whatever happens in China’s economy matters for Latin America even more.”

Asia, Europe, Latin America. They’re so far away. Should U.S. investors care?

Absolutely. Global economies have always tended to move in tandem, into and out of good times and bad times pretty much simultaneously. That tendency has become more pronounced over the last 20 years as countries around the world have become even more dependent on exporting their raw materials and manufactured goods to each other.

So, if other major global economies are experiencing slowing economic growth, some even sliding back into recessions, how reasonable is it to expect the U.S. to escape a similar fate?

Already we may be seeing early warning signs in this week’s U.S. economic reports.

Economists were looking for reports from the U.S. housing industry, the first since a month ago, to confirm the economic recovery is spreading into that important sector.

Unfortunately, the reports were disappointing. They were that new housing starts unexpectedly fell 1.1% last month, existing home sales fell 0.9%, the inventory of unsold homes jumped 4.3%, and new home sales fell 1.6% (compared to the consensus forecast that they would rise 3.8%).

The U.S. stock market stumbled some in reaction to the arrival of global dark clouds, while elsewhere, markets in France and Hong Kong plunged more than 3% for the week, markets in Brazil, China, and Germany more than 2%.

Meanwhile, areas often perceived as safe havens, gold and U.S. treasury bonds, which had fallen to multi-week lows, bounced back some as money flowed back into them.

One week is not a reason for concern.

But this week’s darkening economic clouds just as another six-month cycle from last October’s low rolls around, and with 1st quarter earnings reports just two weeks away, are reasons for investors to remain cautious and alert.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post.

© 2012 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules