Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.U.S. Inner City Turmoil and Other Crises: Ron Pauls Predictions for 2015 - Dr_Ron_Paul
2. What’s In Store For Gold Price in 2015? - Ben Kramer-Miller
3.Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2025: Importers Set to Receive a $600 Billion Refund - Andrew_Butter
4.Je ne suis pas Charlie - I am not Charlie - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The New Normal for Oil? - Marin_Katusa
6.Will Collapse in Oil Price Cause a Stock Market Crash? - OilPrice.com
7.UK CPI Inflation Smoke and Mirrors Deflation Warning, Inflation Mega-trend is Exponential - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Winter Storms Snow and Wind Tree Damage Dangers, DIY Pruning - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Oil Price Crash and SNP Independent Scotland Economic Collapse Bankruptcy - Nadeem_Walayat
10.U.S. Housing Market Bubble 2.0 Meet the Pin - James_Quinn
Last 5 days
Saudi Arabia Changes Kings, But Not its Oil Policy - 29th Jan 15
Crude Oil Price Bulls vs. Resistance Zone - 28th Jan 15
Acceleration Of Events With Rising Chaos – US Dollar Death Foretold - 28th Jan 15
The Fed and ECB Take the West back to when the Rich Owned Everything - 28th Jan 15
Washington's War on Russia - 28th Jan 15
Cyber War Poses Risks To Banks and Deposits - 28th Jan 15
Lies And Deception In Ukraine's Energy Sector - 28th Jan 15
EUR, AUD, GBP USD – Invalidation of Breakdown - 28th Jan 15
“Backup-Camera Envy” Is Driving This Unstoppaple Investment Trend - 28th Jan 15
The Great "inflated" Expectations for Gold, Oil, Commodities -- and Now Stocks - 28th Jan 15
How to Find the Best Offshore Banks - 28th Jan 15
There’s More to the Gold Price Rally Than European Market Fears - 28th Jan 15
Bitcoin Price Tense Days Ahead - 27th Jan 15
The Most Overlooked “Buy” Signal in the Stock Market - 27th Jan 15
Gold's Time Has Come - 27th Jan 15
France America And Religious Terror War - 27th Jan 15
The New Drivers of Europe's Geopolitics - 27th Jan 15
Gold And Silver - Around The FX World In Charts - 27th Jan 15
It’s Not The Greeks Who Failed, It’s The EU - 27th Jan 15
Gold and Silver Stocks Investing Basics - 27th Jan 15
Stock Market Test of Strength - 26th Jan 15
Is the Gold Price Rally Over? - 26th Jan 15
ECB QE Action - Canary’s Alive & Well - 26th Jan 15
Possible Stock Market Pop-n-drop in Store For SPX - 26th Jan 15
Risk of New Debt Crisis After Syriza Victory In Greece - 26th Jan 15
How Eurozone QE Works: A Guide to Draghi's News - 26th Jan 15
Comprehensive Silver Price Chart Analysis - 26th Jan 15
Stock Market More Retracement Expected - 26th Jan 15
Decoding the Gold COTs: Myth vs Reality - 26th Jan 15
Greece Votes for Syriza Hyperinflation - Threatening Euro-zone Collapse or Perpetual Free Lunch - 26th Jan 15
Draghi's "No-growth" QE Money for Stocks, Zilch for the Economy - 25th Jan 15
Unjust and Undeclared Wars - 25th Jan 15
The European Central Bank Commits Monetary Suicide - 25th Jan 15
Stock Market ECB EQE week - 25th Jan 15
Gold And Silver Timing Is Most Important Element - 25th Jan 15
The Best Way to Invest in the Next Alibaba Internet Stock IPO - 25th Jan 15
The Outpatient Surgery Business Rains Cash into Healthcare Stocks - 25th Jan 15
Stock Traders Flock to Gold GLD ETF - 24th Jan 15
10 Reasons Why You Need an Offshore Bank Account - 24th Jan 15
Goldman Sachs Blankfein - Regulation is Like Background Noise - 24th Jan 15
Gold in Euros Surges As ECB To Print Trillion Euros and Greek Election This Sunday - 24th Jan 15
Gold Bear Market Rally or New Bull ? - 24th Jan 15
Euro-zone 'QE already Working' Says IMF Lagarde - 23rd Jan 15
ECB and EU LTRO and QE for Dummies: Or, Make These Trades - 23rd Jan 15
Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts - There's More Than Falling Prices - 23rd Jan 15
Market Should Not Doubt' Mario Draghi ECB QE - 23rd Jan 15
Francs, Bonds, Barrels, and Bail-Ins - 23rd Jan 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

State of US Markets 2015 Report

U.S. Standing Down on Military Action as Iran's Internal Power Struggle Unfolds

Politics / Iran Apr 04, 2012 - 03:21 AM GMT

By: OilPrice_Com

Politics

A strike on Iran, however limited, would push the current internal power struggle to a premature end that would not be in the US' best interests - that is the message, whether intentional or not, of the recent "intelligence leak" that has provided the Obama Administration with justification for standing down with regard to Iran.


Earlier this week, the media had a field day with "intelligence leaks" suggesting that there is no imminent threat of Iran achieving nuclear weapons capabilities, apparently with the concurrence of Israel's Mossad.

There are two things to be avoided in this discourse, the first being the obvious reality that intelligence is used to support policy decisions and "leaks" are one tool through which this is accomplished.

Also less important is the discussion on Iran's nuclear weapons program, which can be largely summed up by noting that civil nuclear programs can enrich uranium which can be used for nuclear weapons and that Iran can decide at any moment to pursue this path. It is an unknown that has been used to push public opinion in a number of directions.

Interestingly, the public (media) can so easily accept "intelligence leaks" that accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons but cannot accept a "leak" to the opposite because of an ingrained fixation on themes that are Cold War-ish in nature.

This is not about nuclear weapons. It is about containing Iran on a number of levels.

On a foreign policy level, the bloody window of opportunity to ensure that Syria will no longer be a part of Iran's efforts to create a Shi'ite triangle of influence against Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interests in the region will do much to contain Iran.

On another level, though, foremost to containing Iran is understanding the internal struggle for power, when to harness the momentum and when to step back, recognizing how external actions could play out.

Despite his loud rhetoric, Washington should not be too quick to desire the final demise of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose demise for now seems nonetheless imminent. Presently, the situation in Iran is ideal for Washington: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in a stronger position than ever before, but that power comes at the price of responsibility and he must move with extreme caution in order to cement power ahead of presidential elections in 2013, where he hopes to see the final defeat of Ahmadinejad. 

The 2 March parliamentaryelections in Iran cemented what well-placed informants inside Tehran working for Jellyfish Operations told Oilprice.com last summer: that plans were in the works to remove Ahmadinejad from power and that if politics did not do the trick, more nefarious means would be used. The first indication, they said, would be for Ahmadinejad to lose his grip over the oil ministry - a development that happened soon afterwards, gradually chipping away at hispower base ahead of parliamentary elections.

On 2 March, Khamenei managed to secure a solid majority for his conservative circle - a circle that largely controls the country's foreign policy direction and its nuclear program. It is a majority that will shut out problematic reformist voices and continue to reduce the chances of opposition conservatives, including Ahmadinejad's own support base, to realize a comeback.

The Supreme Leader's power is not yet solidified, and there are circles of conservatives whose direction of support remains elusive, and for this reason, he must tread carefully, and so must the US and Israel.

The next decisive political event will be presidential elections in June 2013, by which date Khamenei will have had to ensure that all his ducks are in a row for the final demise of his rivals. Particularly, though not solely, Khamenei will seek to further chip away at Ahmadinejad's power, and external influences could help him achieve that. Specifically, an attack on Iran, while Ahmadinejad is still president would do wonders to that end. A limited attack on Iran during Ahmadinejad's tenure that targeted only its nuclear facilities, which would be most likely, could be absorbed and used as additional political ammunition for the Supreme Leader.

Importantly, Khamenei has other ducks to line up as well, and his new power means that his decisions and the consequences of those decisions will fall on his own shoulders and determine the allegiance of conservative circles whose support has not yet been decided - anargument laid out most astutely by Omid Memarian writing for opendemocracy.net.

For now, the US and Israel would do best to proceed with an equal amount of caution and avoid adding any velocity to Ahmadinejad's demise. No one wants to see Khamenei's conservatives solidify unrivaled power.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/

By Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

© 2012 Copyright OilPrice.com- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014