Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Continues Defying Gravity, Dow New All Time High - Nadeem_Walayat
2.America Superpower 2016 - Ian Bremmer
3.The US Dollar and the Precious Metals Complex - Rambus_Chartology
4.UK Immigration Crisis Could Prompt BREXIT, Propelling Britain Out of EU Despite German Factor - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The “Real Flash Crash” Will Scare You to Death - Shah Gilani
6.Gold Price Trend Forecast - Bob_Louka
7.UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Lifeboat to Global Economies “Titanic Problem” Warn HSBC - GoldCore
9.Will Interest Rates Ever Rise? - BATR
10.Who’s Killing the Stock Market? - Shah Gilani
Last 5 days
Options Pricing - Covert Gamma, Portfolio Insurance, and STDs - 30th May 15
U.S. Crude Oil Production Sets New Modern Record - 30th May 15
Gold Still Waiting - 30th May 15
Investing’s Great Struggle - 29th May 15
How Rich Countries Get Rich - Freedom, Global Poverty, and the Failure of Foreign Aid - 29th May 15
Goldman Sachs Warns “Too Much Debt” Threatens World Economy - 29th May 15
Skunk Works Engineers Supersonic Profits - 29th May 15
Gold, Silver and US Dollar Strength - 29th May 15
This New Currency Could Wipe Out the Euro - 28th May 15
US Housing Market - Something Smells Fishy - 28th May 15
US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend - 28th May 15
U.S. Fed Exported QE Travesty: Meet The BLICS Nations - 28th May 15
World War D—Deflation - Secular Bear Markets Analysis - 28th May 15
George Soros Warns of “Third World War” - 28th May 15
Why You Shouldn't Try to Invest Like Warren Buffett - 28th May 15
Stock Markets Buy and Hold is Back! - 28th May 15
We're Now Frighteningly Vulnerable to a Bond Market Crash - 28th May 15
Austerity, Economics and Religion - 28th May 15
National Holidays London and the Magic of Legoland UK Review - 27th May 15
Imminent Stocks Bear Market Signaled by Dow Theory ... - 27th May 15
Gold Price Has Bottomed – More Evidence - 27th May 15
Three Reasons You Shouldn’t Try to Invest Like Warren Buffett - 27th May 15
Gold Is “100% Guarantee from Legal and Political Risks” States Russian Central Bank - 27th May 15
Don't Drown in the Sea of Global Debt - 27th May 15
Three Reasons Why Carl Icahn Is Wrong About Apple Stock - 27th May 15
Crude Oil Price Stochastic Signals - 26th May 15
Why the Stock Market Will Crash - 26th May 15
GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie - 26th May 15
Introduction to Peak Food - 26th May 15
Should We Dump the Euro? - 26th May 15
A Geopolitical Net Assessment of Europe - 26th May 15
Stock Market Top in Place? - 26th May 15
Best Cash ISA SBI 2.3% - 2.8 Year Fix, UK Interest Rates 2016 - 26th May 15
China Sets Up Gold Bullion Fund For Central Banks - 25th May 15
Is The Silver Trade Getting Crowded? - 25th May 15
Money Murder Mystery: Who Killed the Stock Market? - 25th May 15
Why Do We Celebrate Rising U.S. House Prices? - 24th May 15
Mario Draghi’s Slippery Downward Slope - 24th May 15
Gold : Truth is Stranger than Fiction - 24th May 15
Facebook Stock Price Forecast - 24th May 15
Make a Killing on the Coming Energy "Debt Bubble" - 24th May 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Biggest Debt Bomb in History

U.S. Standing Down on Military Action as Iran's Internal Power Struggle Unfolds

Politics / Iran Apr 04, 2012 - 03:21 AM GMT

By: OilPrice_Com

Politics

A strike on Iran, however limited, would push the current internal power struggle to a premature end that would not be in the US' best interests - that is the message, whether intentional or not, of the recent "intelligence leak" that has provided the Obama Administration with justification for standing down with regard to Iran.


Earlier this week, the media had a field day with "intelligence leaks" suggesting that there is no imminent threat of Iran achieving nuclear weapons capabilities, apparently with the concurrence of Israel's Mossad.

There are two things to be avoided in this discourse, the first being the obvious reality that intelligence is used to support policy decisions and "leaks" are one tool through which this is accomplished.

Also less important is the discussion on Iran's nuclear weapons program, which can be largely summed up by noting that civil nuclear programs can enrich uranium which can be used for nuclear weapons and that Iran can decide at any moment to pursue this path. It is an unknown that has been used to push public opinion in a number of directions.

Interestingly, the public (media) can so easily accept "intelligence leaks" that accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons but cannot accept a "leak" to the opposite because of an ingrained fixation on themes that are Cold War-ish in nature.

This is not about nuclear weapons. It is about containing Iran on a number of levels.

On a foreign policy level, the bloody window of opportunity to ensure that Syria will no longer be a part of Iran's efforts to create a Shi'ite triangle of influence against Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interests in the region will do much to contain Iran.

On another level, though, foremost to containing Iran is understanding the internal struggle for power, when to harness the momentum and when to step back, recognizing how external actions could play out.

Despite his loud rhetoric, Washington should not be too quick to desire the final demise of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose demise for now seems nonetheless imminent. Presently, the situation in Iran is ideal for Washington: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in a stronger position than ever before, but that power comes at the price of responsibility and he must move with extreme caution in order to cement power ahead of presidential elections in 2013, where he hopes to see the final defeat of Ahmadinejad. 

The 2 March parliamentaryelections in Iran cemented what well-placed informants inside Tehran working for Jellyfish Operations told Oilprice.com last summer: that plans were in the works to remove Ahmadinejad from power and that if politics did not do the trick, more nefarious means would be used. The first indication, they said, would be for Ahmadinejad to lose his grip over the oil ministry - a development that happened soon afterwards, gradually chipping away at hispower base ahead of parliamentary elections.

On 2 March, Khamenei managed to secure a solid majority for his conservative circle - a circle that largely controls the country's foreign policy direction and its nuclear program. It is a majority that will shut out problematic reformist voices and continue to reduce the chances of opposition conservatives, including Ahmadinejad's own support base, to realize a comeback.

The Supreme Leader's power is not yet solidified, and there are circles of conservatives whose direction of support remains elusive, and for this reason, he must tread carefully, and so must the US and Israel.

The next decisive political event will be presidential elections in June 2013, by which date Khamenei will have had to ensure that all his ducks are in a row for the final demise of his rivals. Particularly, though not solely, Khamenei will seek to further chip away at Ahmadinejad's power, and external influences could help him achieve that. Specifically, an attack on Iran, while Ahmadinejad is still president would do wonders to that end. A limited attack on Iran during Ahmadinejad's tenure that targeted only its nuclear facilities, which would be most likely, could be absorbed and used as additional political ammunition for the Supreme Leader.

Importantly, Khamenei has other ducks to line up as well, and his new power means that his decisions and the consequences of those decisions will fall on his own shoulders and determine the allegiance of conservative circles whose support has not yet been decided - anargument laid out most astutely by Omid Memarian writing for opendemocracy.net.

For now, the US and Israel would do best to proceed with an equal amount of caution and avoid adding any velocity to Ahmadinejad's demise. No one wants to see Khamenei's conservatives solidify unrivaled power.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/

By Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

© 2012 Copyright OilPrice.com- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History