Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Trend Forecast, Where are the Gold Traders? - Bob_Loukas
2.Stocks Bear Market of 2017 Begins? Shorting the Dow At its Peak! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Betting on President Trump Leaving Office Early, Presidency End Date - Betfair Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Stock Market Analysts Will be Wrong About 2017 - Clif_Droke
5.Is This The Best Way For Investors To Play The Electric Car Boom - OilPrice_Com
6.Silver Price 2017 Trend Forecast Update - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Price Set For Very Bullish 2017, Trend Forecast - Austin_Galt
8.10 Things I learned From Meetings With Trump’s Transition Team - - John_Mauldin
9.How Investors Can Profit From Trumps Military Ambitions - OilPrice_Com
10.Channel 4 War on 'Fake News', Forgets Own Alt Reality Propaganda Broadcasting - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen - 18th Feb 17
The Flynn Fiascom, the Trump Revolution Ends in a Whimper - 18th Feb 17
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing - 18th Feb 17
SPX Stocks Bull Market Continues to make New Highs - 18th Feb 17
China Disaster to Trigger Gold Run, Trump to Appoint 5 of 7 Fed Governors - 18th Feb 17
Gold Stock Volume Divergence - 17th Feb 17
Gold, Silver, US Dollar Cycles - 17th Feb 17
Inflation Spikes in 2017, Supporting Gold Prices Despite Increased Odds of March Rate Hike - 17th Feb 17
Roses Are Red... and So's Been EURUSD's Trend - 17th Feb 17
Gold Trade Note Sighted - 17th Feb 17
Gold Is Undervalued Say Leading Fund Managers - 17th Feb 17
NSA, CIA, FBI, Media Establishment 'Deep State' War Against Emerging 'Trump State' - 16th Feb 17
Silver, Gold Stocks and Remembering the Genius of Hunter S. Thompson - 16th Feb 17
Maps That Show The US’ Strategy In Asia-Pacific - 15th Feb 17
The Trump Stock Market Rally Is Just Getting Started! - 15th Feb 17
Tesco Crisis - Fake Prices, Brexit Inflation Tsunami to Send Food Prices Soaring 10% 2017 - 15th Feb 17
Stock Market Indexes Appear Ready to Roll Over - 15th Feb 17
Gold Bull Market? Or was 2016 Just a Gold Bug Mirage? - 15th Feb 17
Here’s How Germany Buys Time From China - 15th Feb 17
The Stock Trader’s Actionable Guide to Trump - 15th Feb 17
Trump A New Jacksonian Era? The Fourth Turning (2) - 14th Feb 17
Stock Market Yet Another Wall Street 'Witch's Brew' - 14th Feb 17
This Is Why You Don’t Own A Lot Of Stocks - 14th Feb 17
Proposed Tax Reforms Face Enormous Headwinds - 14th Feb 17
BBC Inside Out Tesco Rip off Offers - Determined to Lose Big Spend Customers! - 13th Feb 17
Is the UK An Economy Built on Debt? - 13th Feb 17
Stock Market VIX Cycles set to Explode in March/April 2017 – Part 2 - 13th Feb 17
Stocks At Record Highs - Will Uptrend Accelerate? - 13th Feb 17
US Dollar: 'Rumors of My Death are Greatly Exaggerated' - 13th Feb 17
Is This The Top Commodity Play For 2017? - 13th Feb 17
Trump a New Jacksonian Era? - 13th Feb 17
Stock Market at High Tide - 13th Feb 17
Channel 4 War on 'Fake News' Ends - The New News Age - 12th Feb 17
Uptrend in Silver (XAG/USD) Continues to Strengthen - 11th Feb 17
Greece Debt Crisis Outrageous Malevolence - 11th Feb 17
SPX Stock Market 1-year Anniversary New Highs - 11th Feb 17
Gold and Gold Stocks Hit Upside Targets. Now What? - 11th Feb 17
Moving Stock Market Targets: Investors Need to Discriminate! - 11th Feb 17
Sheffield Trees Felling Crisis, Police Dawn Raids and Arrest, Amey £2bn PFI - 11th Feb 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

State of Global Markets 2017 - Report

U.S. Standing Down on Military Action as Iran's Internal Power Struggle Unfolds

Politics / Iran Apr 04, 2012 - 03:21 AM GMT

By: OilPrice_Com

Politics

A strike on Iran, however limited, would push the current internal power struggle to a premature end that would not be in the US' best interests - that is the message, whether intentional or not, of the recent "intelligence leak" that has provided the Obama Administration with justification for standing down with regard to Iran.


Earlier this week, the media had a field day with "intelligence leaks" suggesting that there is no imminent threat of Iran achieving nuclear weapons capabilities, apparently with the concurrence of Israel's Mossad.

There are two things to be avoided in this discourse, the first being the obvious reality that intelligence is used to support policy decisions and "leaks" are one tool through which this is accomplished.

Also less important is the discussion on Iran's nuclear weapons program, which can be largely summed up by noting that civil nuclear programs can enrich uranium which can be used for nuclear weapons and that Iran can decide at any moment to pursue this path. It is an unknown that has been used to push public opinion in a number of directions.

Interestingly, the public (media) can so easily accept "intelligence leaks" that accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons but cannot accept a "leak" to the opposite because of an ingrained fixation on themes that are Cold War-ish in nature.

This is not about nuclear weapons. It is about containing Iran on a number of levels.

On a foreign policy level, the bloody window of opportunity to ensure that Syria will no longer be a part of Iran's efforts to create a Shi'ite triangle of influence against Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) interests in the region will do much to contain Iran.

On another level, though, foremost to containing Iran is understanding the internal struggle for power, when to harness the momentum and when to step back, recognizing how external actions could play out.

Despite his loud rhetoric, Washington should not be too quick to desire the final demise of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose demise for now seems nonetheless imminent. Presently, the situation in Iran is ideal for Washington: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in a stronger position than ever before, but that power comes at the price of responsibility and he must move with extreme caution in order to cement power ahead of presidential elections in 2013, where he hopes to see the final defeat of Ahmadinejad. 

The 2 March parliamentaryelections in Iran cemented what well-placed informants inside Tehran working for Jellyfish Operations told Oilprice.com last summer: that plans were in the works to remove Ahmadinejad from power and that if politics did not do the trick, more nefarious means would be used. The first indication, they said, would be for Ahmadinejad to lose his grip over the oil ministry - a development that happened soon afterwards, gradually chipping away at hispower base ahead of parliamentary elections.

On 2 March, Khamenei managed to secure a solid majority for his conservative circle - a circle that largely controls the country's foreign policy direction and its nuclear program. It is a majority that will shut out problematic reformist voices and continue to reduce the chances of opposition conservatives, including Ahmadinejad's own support base, to realize a comeback.

The Supreme Leader's power is not yet solidified, and there are circles of conservatives whose direction of support remains elusive, and for this reason, he must tread carefully, and so must the US and Israel.

The next decisive political event will be presidential elections in June 2013, by which date Khamenei will have had to ensure that all his ducks are in a row for the final demise of his rivals. Particularly, though not solely, Khamenei will seek to further chip away at Ahmadinejad's power, and external influences could help him achieve that. Specifically, an attack on Iran, while Ahmadinejad is still president would do wonders to that end. A limited attack on Iran during Ahmadinejad's tenure that targeted only its nuclear facilities, which would be most likely, could be absorbed and used as additional political ammunition for the Supreme Leader.

Importantly, Khamenei has other ducks to line up as well, and his new power means that his decisions and the consequences of those decisions will fall on his own shoulders and determine the allegiance of conservative circles whose support has not yet been decided - anargument laid out most astutely by Omid Memarian writing for opendemocracy.net.

For now, the US and Israel would do best to proceed with an equal amount of caution and avoid adding any velocity to Ahmadinejad's demise. No one wants to see Khamenei's conservatives solidify unrivaled power.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/

By Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

© 2012 Copyright OilPrice.com- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife