Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.SNP Offers Labour Deadly Death Embrace Alliance, Holding England to Ransom, Destroy UK From Within - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold And Silver – Most Widely Used Currency In Western World? Stupidity - Michael_Noonan
3.Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Why are Interest Rates So Low? Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It - Mike_Shedlock
6.Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Natalie Bennett Green Party Convincing Anti-Austerity More Debt Argument - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Labour Economic Collapse vs Coalition Recovery - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
8.China’s Stock Market Mania; How High can Red-chips Fly? - Gary_Dorsch
9.Gold and Misery, Strange Bedfellows - 31st Mar 15 - Dan_Norcini
10.Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Sugar Commodity Price Bear Rally - 19th Apr 15
Avoid the Spread of the Stock Market "China Syndrome" - 19th Apr 15
Stock Market Going Nowhere Fast - 19th Apr 15
An Easy Way to Profit From the Two Biggest Trends in the Stock Market - 19th Apr 15
No Scripture Is Divine, Authentic and Beyond the Creation of the Human Brain - 19th Apr 15
Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles - 18th Apr 15
Stock Market Correction May be Nearing End - 18th Apr 15
UK Housing Crisis, Immigration, Population Growth, Election Forecast 2015 - Video - 18th Apr 15
Q1 Corporate Earnings Risky for Stocks - 17th Apr 15
US Stock Market Getting Scarier by the Day - 17th Apr 15
Stock Market Watershed Day - 17th Apr 15
Gold Price Has “Hallmarks Of Market That Is Bottoming” - 17th Apr 15
Chinese Stock Market - Men Go Mad in Herds - 17th Apr 15
Two Stocks Offering Investors High Yields and Profits - 17th Apr 15
Gold Price Has “Hallmarks Of Market That Is Bottoming” - 17th Apr 15
Chinese Stock Market - Men Go Mad in Herds - 17th Apr 15
Two Stocks Offering Investors High Yields and Profits - 17th Apr 15
King Dollar Hurting Stock Market Corporate Earnings! - 17th Apr 15
Production Declines Hide Bigger Crude Oil Storage Issues - 17th Apr 15
Top Three Takeaways From Today’s OPEC Crude Oil Report… and How You Can Profit - 17th Apr 15
How to Profit from Australia's Healthiest Biotech Stocks - 17th Apr 15
What Is Really Driving Gold Price? - 17th Apr 15
Will Ever More Boomers Selling Retirement Assets Change Investment Prices For Decades? - 16th Apr 15
Won't Be Contagion with 'Grexit' Greece Euro-zone Exit - 16th Apr 15
Sharp Decline in USD/CAD and Its Consequences - 16th Apr 15
Blackstone is like Apple, Google, Hermes, Boeing - 16th Apr 15
The Most Dangerous Financial Headline I've Seen Since the 2008 Crisis - 16th Apr 15
Is Legal Tax Avoidance Extinct in the UK? - 16th Apr 15
Why Russia Will Send More Troops to Central Asia - 16th Apr 15
More Thoughts on the Current Crude Oil Market - 16th Apr 15
U.S. Treasury Secretary Warns Greek Exit Will Cause Enormous Disruption and Hardship - 16th Apr 15
The Hottest New Place to Find Stock Dividend Income in Q2/2015 - 15th Apr 15
How to Escape the Pensions Squeeze - 15th Apr 15
Water Crisis Game Changing Water Revolution - 15th Apr 15
The Drying of California - Corporate Farms Control of Water - 15th Apr 15
OPEC Going Broke, Dumping U.S. Dollars. Is That Good Or Bad? - 15th Apr 15
OPEC Just Confirmed It’s Losing the Oil War - 15th Apr 15
Four Uranium Companies Poised to Profit from the Growth of Nuclear Power - 15th Apr 15
Stock Investing Tread Softly… and Carry a Big Risk-Management Calculator - 15th Apr 15
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook - 15th Apr 15
Important Bitcoin Price Action - 15th Apr 15
UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015 - 15th Apr 15
Peter Schiff on U.S. Dollars, Drachmas and Debt - Video - 14th Apr 15
The Ultimate Middle East Dilemma: Time For Us To Stop Intervening? - 14th Apr 15
Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? - 14th Apr 15
Coming to Terms With the American Empire - 14th Apr 15
The Ball is in the Stock Market Bulls Court - 14th Apr 15
Tech Stocks Bubble: Different this time? - 14th Apr 15
Stock Market Sixth Sense - 14th Apr 15
Separating Gold and Silver Stocks Saints from the Sinners - 14th Apr 15
Conservatives Bribe Labour Voters by Extending Right to Buy to Housing Association Tenants - 14th Apr 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Historic Bubble

IEAs Crazy Energy Futures Conference, We Need $5 Trillion

Politics / Energy Resources Apr 26, 2012 - 08:45 AM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a bizarre presentation at the April 25 London conference of the IEA the agency held fast to the now heavily shopsoiled doctrine of catastrophic global warming, and used that as its main plank to put out the begging bowl for $5 trillion. This is the IEA's estimate of what is needed for its unreal mix and mingle of energy gimmicks and real energy solutions, that it calls Clean Energy Progress.


“We have a responsibility and a golden opportunity to act,” said the IEA's deputy director, Ambassador Richard H. Jones. “Energy-related CO2 emissions are at historic highs; under current policies, we estimate that energy use and CO2 emissions would increase by a third by 2020, and almost double by 2050. This would likely send global temperatures at least 6°C higher..... a legacy that I know none of us wishes to leave behind.”

Fewer and fewer of us, ordinary persons able to read and write, believe global temperatures are likely to be "sent" at least 6 degrees higher. Over the last 150 years they increased by 0.75 degrees, that is three-quarters of one degree. The rest is hockey stick meddling with real world data - to a rather large and ever growing number of us. Even the arch priest of supposed runaway catastrophic global warming, Britain's James 'Gaia' Lovelock, has thrown in the towel on his doom mongering, this week.

Perhaps the Ambassador does not read very recent interviews by what is with no possible shadow of doubt one of his favourite Comfort Scientists, Lovelock: the doom mongerer who so ably peddled global warming snakeoil for so long. If that is the case, the Ambassador should shape up or move out. Global warming is failed propaganda. Try peddling Lysenko's genetic theories, instead.

Unabashed to the extreme, the IEA has now launched what it calls its Sustainability Indicator, and this meal ticket for its 30-nation government sponsors, its corporate and business partners comes to $5 trillion. In what is an overblown, almost hysterical quest for supposed "energy security and low environment impact" the IEA says this spending on renewable power and energy efficiency will be needed by 2020, about 7 years and 7 months from today. One thing is totally sure: it wont happen

DETAILING THE FANTASY
"To contain climate change", as it repeatedly states, the International Energy Agency demands the spending of $5 trillion in much less than 8 years. With Bloomberg New Energy Finance, it compares this quest with handy gauges like the $90 billion stash of the richest 70 members of China's National People's Congress and the more modest $7.5 billion held by all 660 top officials in the three branches of the US federal government. Both of these gee-whiz totals are of course entirely dwarfed by the IEA's energy spending goal.

The IEA lays on thick with the gosh-and-golly numbers, for example that Wal-Mart saved 13 million tons of CO2 last year (we hope it invested it wisely), and that world sea levels rose by a not too impressive 0.7 millimetres solely because of melting Greenland ice, last year, while also in 2011 Chinese drinkers quaffed 130 billion pints of beer.

You mean you didnt know all this ?

The IEA however steers well away from making any comparisons which show the laughable, total impossibility of their crazy energy spending hopes. In 2011, the total for world oil and gas exploration and production activity probably nudged $245 billion: the IEA is talking about way above $600 billion-a-year being needed, it says, in renewable and alternate energy spending - - on top of anything else the world spends on fossil energy development.

Like the IEA at least does allow us to know, its estimate of current and recent global spending on renewable energy possibly totals $250 billion-a-year, but this also needed $66 billion each year on government subsidies. The energy return was in fact not at all impressive, compared with the energy yield from the $245 bn spent on world oil and gas E&P.

For the IEA the big hope is already contained in those two keywords "government subsidies". It suggests, or clamors for the removal of all fossil fuel industry and consumer subsidies - which it estimates at $409 billion in 2011 - and the "switching" of this to renewable and alternate energy. Attentive readers already noted the IEA's estimate of current subsidies to renewable energy, $66 billion-a-year, so the theoretical total wishlist amount of the IEA, as new, state organized and funded renewable energy subsidies would be around $475 billion per year. Nice, but the question is not only how but also when ?

THE MEGA SUBSIDY GAME
Surprising to some, perhaps, the IEA notes there were 134 earthquakes last year in central U.S. states, linked to fracking, compared with an average quake incidence of 21 per year in the period 1970-2000 in the same states. The overtly 'climate conscious' Obama administration is rooting for shale gas, and shale oil too, simply because they create jobs and in the case of shale gas, drive down gas prices to almost nothing. But the IEA thinks that smells of subsidies, which should go to clean energy.

The newstyle IEA's definition of "subsidy" is outright special, but we can go the distance: Asian and European importers of LNG and pipeline gas regularly pay $16 per million BTU, but US gas consumers presently get it at $2. So if US gas prices went to $16 through a new and special Energy Independence tax levied by Mr Obama, the difference could be hived off to spending on windfarms and solar plants, maybe electric cars and super grids, anything is possible ! The important thing is that less ice would melt in Greenland, and perhaps Chinese would drink less beer - we aren't sure.

Showing a complete disconnect with the real world, the IEA's London conference made almost no references to the massive debt-and-deficit crises ripping through the majority of its member state governments. How are they supposed to crank up subsidies for renewable and alternate energy by such massive amounts ? Also, if they suddenly cut all subsidies to fossil energy, the economic collateral damage would be a lot more impressive than a 0.7 millimetre rise of sea levels, sane persons know.

The dangerous mix-and-mingle of the sane and insane is like a layer cake in IEA publications, these days. Its conferences are the same. While the London meeting noted that onshore wind energy production has seen 27% average annual growth over the past decade, and solar PV output grew at 42% a year as prices literally imploded, with a 75% reduction in system costs in as little as 3 years, it still thinks carbon capture is a massive need for Humanity. It said: "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not seeing the necessary rates of investment to develop full-scale demonstration projects, and nearly half of new coal-fired power plants are still being built without CCS". The technological and scientific feasibility of CCS, let alone its financing, are near zero as many persons now know - but the IEA has to pretend that throwing money at it will do miracles. Continuing in that vein, while also claiming the forecasts are "possibly overambitious", the IEA talks about as many as 20 to 25 million all electric cars and vehicles in member states by 2020. The real world feasibility of that is very close to zero, but the IEA chooses not to know, Queen of Hearts style.

IT WONT HAPPEN - IT WILL HAPPEN
2020 is a lot nearer than the IEA thinks: it talks about 7 years and 7 months ahead like it was 2050 or 1980, somewhere far off the cursor. Getting there doesnt really matter because everything can only change with such a generous time gap. Like it proudly signals, on April 16, Spain got 61% of its total electricity supply from its windfarms, with a rated capacity of around 28 500 MW, dwarfing Spain's 7 400 MW of nuclear capacity: that is mushroom growth. Windpower can literally sweep away nuclear power, coal power and gas power - on the right days and when the wind blows.

Due to Spain's huge excess of windpower capacity, on certain days, its most urgent need is high capacity grids for exporting power when it has too much. This is happening: the Spain/France 340 kV HVDC line of 1.4 GW capacity is being built now - at an estimated 700 million euros for 75 kilometres. The same problem is happening and will happen all over Europe - meaning that some time in a totally predictable future, there has to be a pan European super grid. Yes, but only perhaps. Alternately, because it is so expensive to build super grids, even national power grids could be shattered down into local self-reliant microgrids. No pan European grid would be needed.

For the IEA (and exactly the same for European Commission bureaucrats) this kind of epic choice is going to be made by unexplained and automatic forces - even market forces ! These no doubt well intentioned bystanders use coded language, talking about "level playing field prices which reflect the true cost of energy". This is wildly impossible, in fact. As the spending-and-subsidy game works itself ever upwards, like a tropical cyclone feeding off its own energy, there is no remaining thing called "true cost". What happened in Spain and to Spain was a kind of "shop til you drop" explosion of alternate energy spending and subsidies, which has imploded like the country's insane real estate bubble. Spain's energy demand is contracting, also. The IEA refuses to accept all this as a dangerous sign that hard-edged decisions have to be taken really soon. Without them, the worst is almost certain.

It prefers to playact about global warming doom being almost upon us, but that worst is a hoax, like its arch priest Lovelock has started admitting, as he worms his way offstage. At the IEA London conference there was plenty of talk about the 15 000 temperature records broken in the U.S. during March, but almost nothing about 8 out of the 10 biggest solar PV manufacturers in the world being bankrupt or in receivership, right now. Boom and bust seems unknown to the IEA, which is a pity, but this is the real future of alternate and renewable energy - until and unless hard edged decisions are made.

By Andrew McKillop

Contact: xtran9@gmail.com

Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2012 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

JC
27 Apr 12, 05:25
A solid solution

"As environmental science has advanced, it has become apparent that the human appetite for animal flesh is a driving force behind virtually every major category of environmental damage now threatening the human future: deforestation, erosion, fresh water scarcity, air and water pollution, climate change, biodiversity loss, social injustice, the destabilization of communities, and the spread of disease." Worldwatch Institute, "Is Meat Sustainable?"

"The livestock sector emerges as one of the top contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global. The findings of this report suggest that it should be a major policy focus when dealing with problems of land degradation, climate change and air pollution, water shortage and water pollution, and loss of biodiversity. Livestock’s contribution to environmental problems is on a massive scale and its potential contribution to their solution is equally large. The impact is so significant that it needs to be addressed with urgency." UN Food and Agricultural Organization's report "Livestock's Long Shadow"

“If every American skipped one meal of chicken per week and substituted vegetables and grains... the carbon dioxide savings would be the same as taking more than half a million cars off of U.S. roads.” Environmental Defense Fund

Why would someone choose to be vegan? To slow global warming for one! Here are two uplifting videos to help everyone understand why so many people are making this life affirming choice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKr4HZ7ukSE and http://www.veganvideo.org


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014