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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Are You Ready for Market Mayhem?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 May 21, 2012 - 08:28 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: There's going to be a lot of very heavy betting over the next few days, weeks, and months on what's going up, what's going down, and what's going around:

1.How far will Facebook IPO price go?
2.How far DOWN from here will JPMorgan go, with the FBI and DOJ now sniffing around?
3.How far AROUND the globe will the fallout be if Greece loses its game of chicken?


If you don't have the stomach for what's going to feel like an out-of-control rollercoaster ride, sideline yourself.

If, on the other hand, you like a lot of action, welcome to Mayhem - the preamble month to what will likely be the Summer of Some Discontent.

That is, unless you like rapid-fire trading.

Which, by the way, is not just fun, but can be very, very profitable. I'm in, and so are the subscribers to my Capital Wave Forecast. We're gearing up for some heavy betting in the weeks and months ahead.

So, what's front and center today? You know. The big three headlines: Facebook, JPMorgan Chase, and Greece. Are you sick of hearing about them? I'm not. I like trading the headlines.

Here's my "heads-up" on the big three headlines.

1) Facebook is going to be a Wild Ride, For Sure
I didn't even try to get into the Facebook IPO.

Too many people at too many brokerages and banks that own brokerages don't like me because I'm constantly calling them out on their you-know-what, so I had no chance.

But if I was to get IPO shares, or - better by a mile - if I was smart or lucky enough to own some VC (venture capital) or insider shares between $1.00 and $5.00 (which is where the insiders own shares at), you can bet your bottom dollar that I'd be flipping those shares. Maybe not all of them, but I'd sell at least half, depending on how the stock trades.

I like Facebook as a company, and I like it as a stock to own.

Personally, I don't bother much logging onto Facebook myself, and I don't post stuff there (I'm too busy doing things to make time to write and tell my "friends" what I'm doing, because I'm usually doing it with them).

That doesn't mean that I don't get it.

I know a LOT of people who are on FB all the time. Good for them, and that's, of course, good for the company.

For sure, I will buy FB shares in the future, and I may load up on it if they do what I hope they do with their about-to-be monumental war chest of equity currency. I'm just not buying the "IPOhhh" hype.

You can read more about my thoughts on the good, bad, and ugly of Facebook's debut at Money Morning.

I'll leave you with this about that: FB's coming out could be the top of the market.

On to JPMorgan Chase...

2) The FBI's Involvement Means One Thing
What in the world is the FBI doing, opening up an investigation into JPMorgan's big trading loss?

And what is Attorney General Eric Holder (wish he couldn't "hold" onto his job), unfortunately the top dog (and I mean DOG, sorry all you real dogs, I'm a dog lover, just not that species) at the Department of Justice (oh, don't get me started, I'll end up Fast and Furious), doing, opening up an investigation into the loss?

Forget about the DOJ. They've lost a lot of credibility in my book, because they're far too politicized an agency. And that's more dangerous than disgusting to me.

But the FBI?

The FBI isn't interested in regulation. It's about criminal activity.

Folks, if the FBI is involved, there must be more than just suspicion - something must smell of criminality. (Hopefully they're not just going around attacking people and institutions based on just "suspicion," but hey, the way this country has drifted from our Constitution and our inalienable rights, anything is possible... can you say The Patriot Act? TSA?)

I'm holding off buying JPM until I see where this is going. Too bad, because it's been getting close to a buy. I had told you on Sunday that I'm a buyer here and down 10% to 20% lower. Now, I'll wait a little to see if I can start buying lower than where it is now.

In the end, JPM is too big to fail and will kick ass in the future.

And last but not least, my favorite...

3) The Greek Tragedy
There's a very, very dangerous game of chicken being played out between some ascending political factions in Greece and the rest of the Eurozone, and in particular, Germany.

Left wingers in Greece are saying the EU won't kick them out of the currency arrangement they're a part of, and they won't kick them out of the Union.

Let me say this about that.

They are dead wrong on the first count and dead right on the second count.

The Germans have their Achtung Baby boots all over Greek necks. They want to force harsh austerity measures (make that even harsher than they already have imposed) on Greece if they are going to give them any more of German taxpayer's hard-earned euros. But German taxpayers may revolt against the German government giving up its wealth to save a profligate neighbor who flaunts its laissez faire - some call it unfair and just lazy -ways in the face of all of Europe's helping hands.

If the chicken can't cross the road, the world will be eating raw chicken soup with all its attendant salmonella implications. And we're all going to lose some weight, the ugly way.

It's just all such Mayhem right now. I don't see any sanity or saving grace coming our way any time soon.

But, boy, do I hope I'm wrong.

If I'm not, I'll be making a lot more short bets than I have on now.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/05/18/heavy-betting-in-the-middle-of-mayhem/

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