Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

SPY Bounced, XLF and FXE Not So High

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 May 22, 2012 - 05:58 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is just to give you a perspective on “why the bounce?” SPY bounced of yet another Orthodox Broadening Top trendline, just above daily Mid-Cycle support at 128.41. The current Broadening Formation has been forming since mid-February. Each of these formations attest to the pumping of liquidity on each downside breakout. Unfortunately for the Fed and its minions, this break-down has gone further than the others and now the previous formations offer resistance to any attempts to resume the uptrend.

The bounce may already be over and a drop below the Crash Trigger gives us a potential Head & Shoulders minimum target of 116.97,an average Fibonacci target of 112.11 and a new Orthodox Broadening Top average target of 99.33.

ZeroHedge writes, “Something different today. A dip was bought and kept a little momentum - aided and abetted by some late-afternoon desperation EUR buying correlation-help which dragged the Dow back over the magical 12,500 level.”

XLF tested its Mid-Cycle support at 13.25 and may have left us with a new Head & Shoulders neckline with a target that seems to agree with the Broadening Wedge formation. In addition, the minimum target may be beneath the Wave 1 low and yet another H&S neckline at 10.85. Once the lower neckline is triggered, the minimum target is 5.69. The question is, how quickly will this happen? The first pivot low may be as early as Thursday/Friday of this week. The second may happen near June 8.

I’m switching to an hourly chart to show that VIX did a very nice retest of its Head & Shoulders neckline today. It appears that the retest is over, or nearly so. This puts VIX in a position to rally 34% or more to its minimum H&S target. A rule of thumb is generally when the VIX rallies over 25, the market crashes, so this may be a confirmation of a pickup in the momentum of the decline.

FXI merely made a 17.5% retracement today. It also left us with a new Head & Shoulders neckline (still on the right shoulder of its massive H&S pattern). It almost seems pointless to put the new H&S neckline there, since it is so close to the larger one. However, it seems appropriate to know that there are multiple confirmations of the general trend.

UUP corrected after making a 5-wave impulse from its April 30 low. My suspicion is that the correction will be short-lived, since UUP is due for a Primary Cycle high on Friday.

Last week GLD made an early Trading Cycle pivot low. I had expected to see a low today. Instead, today’s pivot is at a high, so the way is now clear for a decline in GLD that could last through mid-June. A break of the Head & Shoulders neckline will erase all illusions about the uptrend in GLD.

Good luck and good trading!



Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules