Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19
The Privatization of US Indo-Pacific Vision - Project 2049, Armitage, Budget Ploys and Taiwan Nexus - 12th June 19
Gold Price Breaks to the Upside - 12th June 19
Top Publicly Traded Casino Company Stocks for 2019 - 12th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - 12th June 19
Why Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks Aren’t as Safe as You Think - 12th June 19
Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Stock Market Top Pattern Should Form - 12th June 19
FTSE 100: A Top European Index - 12th June 19
Gold Surprise! - 11th June 19
How Forex Indicators are Getting Even More Attention in the Market? - 11th June 19
Stock Market Storm Clouds on the Horizon - 11th June 19
Is Your Financial Security Based On A Double Aberration? - 11th June 19
What If Stocks Are Wrong About Interest Rate Cuts? - 11th June 19
US House Prices Yield Curve, Debt, QE4EVER! - 11th June 19
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone - 11th June 19
U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities - 11th June 19
Fed Running Out of Time and Conventional Weapons - 11th June 19
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs - 11th June 19
Best Travel Bags for Summer Holidays 2019, Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt, tactical - 11th June 19
Betting on Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Markets Forecast - 10th June 19
How Can Stock Market Go Up When We’re Headed Towards a Recession? - 10th June 19
If You Invest in Dividend Stocks, Do This to Double Your Returns - 10th June 19
Reasons for the Success of the Dating Market - 10th June 19
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 10th June 19
US Stock Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin? - 10th June 19
Stock Market Huge Cosmic Cluster Ahead: Buckle Up! - 10th June 19
Stock Market Higher To Go? - 10th June 19
The Gold Price Golden Neckline… - 10th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th June 19
The Fed Stops Pretending - 9th June 19
Fed Rate Cuts Soon; Bitcoin Enthusiasts Join Wall Street in Bashing Gold - 9th June 19
1990s vs. 2010s - Which Expansion Will be Better for Gold? - 9th June 19
Gold Price Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels, Support / Resistance - 8th June 19
Gold Surges Near Breakout - 8th June 19
Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019? - 8th June 19
5 Big Lies About Precious Metals Investing Exposed - 8th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

The US Fed, Societe Generale Rogue Trader, William Poole, and Black Swans

Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation Jan 25, 2008 - 08:20 PM GMT

By: David_Urban

Stock-Markets On Tuesday morning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points in response to a worldwide selloff. The selloff started on mounting fears that the United States has fallen into a recession. The mass fear became so great that the Federal Reserve felt compelled to act before next week's meeting in an attempt to restore confidence in the markets. In the press release, one governor, William Poole from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis voted against a move before next week's meeting. While his actions may leave some people scratching their heads, one needs to go to the website ( http://stlouisfed.org/default.cfm ), note the commentary on the left side of the page, and read the following speech ( http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2008/a/pages/inflation.html ).


In turn the United States government proposed a stimulus package aimed at rescuing the economy from a recession. With a government stimulus package now in place, eyes will turn to the FOMC meeting next week wondering if the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates once again.

Ben Bernanke is taking a huge gamble with the rate cutes risking the recreation of the same bubble which started the subprime problems back in the early to middle part of this decade.

Will the interest rate cuts make a difference? In terms of subprime lending, it is unlikely the cuts will save a majority of borrowers due to the problems currently affecting the markets. The credit that originally caused the subprime crisis has been withdrawn from the system and will not be replaced in the near future. Loans that are resetting to far higher rates or where the buyer lied about their income cannot be saved.

In terms of corporate stimulus, the cuts will have little or no effect. Budgets are decided on for the entire year and most companies are choosing to tighten their belts in response to the uncertainty surrounding the elections scheduled for later this year.

As mortgage insurers and banks dilute shareholders by attracting capital to shore up their base, it is better to look elsewhere for opportunities. If we were comparing the dot-com collapse to the financial markets collapse we are at the point where the dot-coms started to go under from a lack of funding. The Sovereign Wealth Funds are providing the post-bubble financing that was not available to many dot-coms post-bubble collapse. The next step will be a shakeout with strong players absorbing the weak players in the system. The acquisition of Countrywide by Bank of America was only the start.

Confidence in the Bernanke led Federal Reserve is at an all time low. Unfortunately, he was the person handed the job of cleaning up the mess that Greenspan created and discovered that his theoretical papers and models were not applicable in the real world.

The confidence level has dropped so low that Senator Chris Dodd has made the process of appointing people to fill empty seats in the Federal Reserve a political process. If the government had confidence in the Federal Reserve this would not be happening.

The frightening disclosure of a 4.9 billion euro loss attributed to a lone trader at Societe Generale (SocGen) is enough to put everyone in the financial community in a state of fear. SocGen was known worldwide as a leader in the derivative market and considered one of the best managers of risk in the world. As the amount of derivatives worldwide continues to grow it is not surprising that losses attributed to rogue traders continue to grow.

If the information currently available is correct and massive futures positions were unwound when they were uncovered it may have been a Black Swan event which triggered the global sell off Monday and Tuesday ending with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 75 basis points. If this indeed was the reason behind the cut, one has to wonder if William Poole was correct in his assessment that the available economic data did not justify a cut in interest rates. We will know next week when the 4 th Quarter US GDP numbers are released.

Could this have been a case of mass fear caused by lack of communication between counterparties? Only time will tell but the current problems in the financial markets are being caused by a lack of trust between counterparties, something lower interest rates cannot solve.

addthis_url = location.href; addthis_title = document.title; addthis_pub = 'financialsense';

By David Urban

http://blog.myspace.com/global112

Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This blog and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided "AS IS" without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile.

David Urban Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules