Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.SNP Offers Labour Deadly Death Embrace Alliance, Holding England to Ransom, Destroy UK From Within - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold And Silver – Most Widely Used Currency In Western World? Stupidity - Michael_Noonan
3.Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Why are Interest Rates So Low? Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It - Mike_Shedlock
6.Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Natalie Bennett Green Party Convincing Anti-Austerity More Debt Argument - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Labour Economic Collapse vs Coalition Recovery - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
8.China’s Stock Market Mania; How High can Red-chips Fly? - Gary_Dorsch
9.Gold and Misery, Strange Bedfellows - 31st Mar 15 - Dan_Norcini
10.Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Q1 Corporate Earnings Risky for Stocks - 17th Apr 15
US Stock Market Getting Scarier by the Day - 17th Apr 15
Stock Market Watershed Day - 17th Apr 15
Gold Price Has “Hallmarks Of Market That Is Bottoming” - 17th Apr 15
Chinese Stock Market - Men Go Mad in Herds - 17th Apr 15
Two Stocks Offering Investors High Yields and Profits - 17th Apr 15
Gold Price Has “Hallmarks Of Market That Is Bottoming” - 17th Apr 15
Chinese Stock Market - Men Go Mad in Herds - 17th Apr 15
Two Stocks Offering Investors High Yields and Profits - 17th Apr 15
King Dollar Hurting Stock Market Corporate Earnings! - 17th Apr 15
Production Declines Hide Bigger Crude Oil Storage Issues - 17th Apr 15
Top Three Takeaways From Today’s OPEC Crude Oil Report… and How You Can Profit - 17th Apr 15
How to Profit from Australia's Healthiest Biotech Stocks - 17th Apr 15
What Is Really Driving Gold Price? - 17th Apr 15
Will Ever More Boomers Selling Retirement Assets Change Investment Prices For Decades? - 16th Apr 15
Won't Be Contagion with 'Grexit' Greece Euro-zone Exit - 16th Apr 15
Sharp Decline in USD/CAD and Its Consequences - 16th Apr 15
Blackstone is like Apple, Google, Hermes, Boeing - 16th Apr 15
The Most Dangerous Financial Headline I've Seen Since the 2008 Crisis - 16th Apr 15
Is Legal Tax Avoidance Extinct in the UK? - 16th Apr 15
Why Russia Will Send More Troops to Central Asia - 16th Apr 15
More Thoughts on the Current Crude Oil Market - 16th Apr 15
U.S. Treasury Secretary Warns Greek Exit Will Cause Enormous Disruption and Hardship - 16th Apr 15
The Hottest New Place to Find Stock Dividend Income in Q2/2015 - 15th Apr 15
How to Escape the Pensions Squeeze - 15th Apr 15
Water Crisis Game Changing Water Revolution - 15th Apr 15
The Drying of California - Corporate Farms Control of Water - 15th Apr 15
OPEC Going Broke, Dumping U.S. Dollars. Is That Good Or Bad? - 15th Apr 15
OPEC Just Confirmed It’s Losing the Oil War - 15th Apr 15
Four Uranium Companies Poised to Profit from the Growth of Nuclear Power - 15th Apr 15
Stock Investing Tread Softly… and Carry a Big Risk-Management Calculator - 15th Apr 15
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook - 15th Apr 15
Important Bitcoin Price Action - 15th Apr 15
UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015 - 15th Apr 15
Peter Schiff on U.S. Dollars, Drachmas and Debt - Video - 14th Apr 15
The Ultimate Middle East Dilemma: Time For Us To Stop Intervening? - 14th Apr 15
Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? - 14th Apr 15
Coming to Terms With the American Empire - 14th Apr 15
The Ball is in the Stock Market Bulls Court - 14th Apr 15
Tech Stocks Bubble: Different this time? - 14th Apr 15
Stock Market Sixth Sense - 14th Apr 15
Separating Gold and Silver Stocks Saints from the Sinners - 14th Apr 15
Conservatives Bribe Labour Voters by Extending Right to Buy to Housing Association Tenants - 14th Apr 15
Stacking Silver = Simple Solution - 13th Apr 15
Why Markets Ignored Weaker Payrolls - 13th Apr 15
Tory Attack on Ed Milliband Backfires as Labour Takes Opinion Polls Lead - 13th Apr 15
A "Digitalized" Stock Profit Play Mr. Spock Would Love - 13th Apr 15
New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? - 13th Apr 15
Western Interest in Gold Continues to Decline - 13th Apr 15
Stock Markets Breaking Out Worldwide - Buy the Dips Ride the Trend - 13th Apr 15
Silver Price set up to get Whacked Again - 13th Apr 15
Gold Price Dome Cap, Fall Below $1000 Likely - 13th Apr 15
Stock Market Accumulation or Distribution - 13th Apr 15
BLS Economic Propaganda, Truth – The Cure for Cognitive Dissonance - 12th Apr 15
A Case for Monetary Independence - 12th Apr 15
Drought and the Failure of Big Government in California - 12th Apr 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 11th Apr 15
Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back - 11th Apr 15
End Of Islam, Hinduism And Christianity And Rise Of The Age Of Humanism, Spirituality And The Universal God - Sanadhana Dharma - 11th Apr 15
Gold And Silver Nothing Of Substance Going On. Fiat “Dollar” Controlling? - 11th Apr 15
The Most Dangerous Financial Headline I’ve Seen Since 2008 - 11th Apr 15
Alibaba Pggybank Investment Will Make You a Millionaire - 11th Apr 15
Ghosts In The Machine - Population Growth vs Food Production - 11th Apr 15
Gold-Futures Short Covering Rally - 11th Apr 15
Is Bitcoin Price Going down Some More? - 11th Apr 15
Stock Market Pivotal Events - History is Fact - 10th Apr 15
Gold Price “Going Higher” and “A Big Buy Here” - 10th Apr 15
Oil Price - How Much Longer Can OPEC Hold Out? - 10th Apr 15
Euro-zone Crisis - Germany’s Trade Surplus Is a Problem - 10th Apr 15
U.S. Investors Face a Giant, Historic Stock Market Bubble - 10th Apr 15
Greece, Gold, The Death Of Paper Money And The Modern State - 10th Apr 15
Gold and Silver Expect Lower Prices Once Again - 10th Apr 15
How Easy Money Drives the Stock Market - 9th Apr 15
Who Owns the North Pole? - 9th Apr 15
The Tax Collector’s Puzzle - WAIT: Don't File Those Taxes Just Yet! - 9th Apr 15
Austrian Government to No Longer Guarantees Bank Deposits - 9th Apr 15
Buy Gold and Silver Stocks Before the Bear Goes into Hibernation - 9th Apr 15
EURUSD: Why Recent Ups and Downs Are NOT Random - 9th Apr 15
Five Total Wealth Stock Market Investing Principles to Use Today - 9th Apr 15
U.S. Hegemony and Dollar Threatened By New Chinese Bank - 9th Apr 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Historic Bubble

Five Ways Investors Not to Get "Facebooked"

Companies / Investing 2012 May 29, 2012 - 10:27 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Companies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: On the heels of the Facebook IPO fiasco, many investors are wondering how they can find the next best thing and avoid getting "facebooked" in the process.

Tall order? Not really.


First, look for companies with ideas that can be applied across a wide variety of industries.
If I had said this five years ago, you'd be looking for Internet- related startups or companies that can do "it" better, faster or cheaper.

Going forward however, I think the true innovation will be exponential progress that's made linking living systems with their digital counterparts. Everything from synthetic biology to computational bioinformatics will grow a lot more rapidly than the broader markets.

So will key markets related to healing human illness, solving hunger and figuring out how to deliver potable water to broad swathes of the planet.

No doubt there will be tremendous ethical challenges along the way, but I believe we will see the line blur between what's needed to live and how we actually live our lives.

Though it's hard to imagine given the state of the world at the moment, I believe a fair number of the best up- and- coming investments will be outside the traditional first- tier markets of the United States, Europe and Japan.

In fact, I'd bet on it.

Second, don't confuse the ability to organize or share information with the ability to generate revenue
One might lead to the other but they are not the same thing.

The way I see it, Facebook is a classic example of everything you don't want in a business. It is 900 million users who spend an average of $1.32 a year. Compare that to Amazon.com, which clocks in at a much more valuable and consistent $36.52 per person.

Call me crazy, but I don't think Facebook stock will see the bottom for a while. As I wrote last Friday, at best Facebook is worth $7.50 a share.

Revenue is slowing. Facebook doesn't dominate the mobile markets that are becoming the preferred consumer channel for tens of millions of people. And, in what is perhaps the death knell, startups are already cannibalizing Facebook's user base.

The ability to "like" somebody is really no different than signing their yearbook in high school --only you're using a computer and the Internet to do it.

Third, hunt for fringe thinkers working in their garages.
It's not enough to think differently. The next big things will come from those thinkers operating on the fringes of what the rest of us consider normal.

For example, there's a self-taught school dropout mechanic in Wichita, KS, named Johnathan Goodwin who turned the automobile industry on its ear by figuring out how to convert gas- guzzling hummers into biodiesel trucks and 100 mpg hybrids. Detroit said it couldn't be done yet his company, H-Line Conversions, proved them wrong. Don't forget that Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard started H-P in their Palo Alto garage. Incidentally, their first product was not a computer but an audio oscillator Walt Disney purchased to make the film Fantasia.

Then there's eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY).

Now an institution, eBay has created several millionaires like Jordan Insley and Sarah Davis. Insley has sold more than $8 million worth of electronics via eBay, while Davis has moved more than $4 million worth of designer handbags online. Many eBayers operate from their garages quite literally.

Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak also built the first Apple computers in Jobs's parents' garage. And the rest, as they say, is history.

Fourth, be a "nowist" instead of a futurist.
Joi Ito, Director of MIT's Media Lab and an early stage investor in both Twitter and Flickr, notes that the ability to respond to suddenly emerging trends is key.

I agree.

It's one thing to identify long- term trends, but it's entirely another to understand the moves you need to make ahead of time.

Consider what's happened during this financial crisis.

Most investors were totally unprepared for the chaos in 2007 just as they were in late 1999. On the other hand, those who had prepared for the unexpected did just fine, including many Money Map Report subscribers.

Why? - Because they invested in companies that had strong international sales, diversified assets, competent management and healthy cash flow. In other words, the "glocals" I've favored and will continue to favor until this mess resolves itself one way or the other.

These are the companies that are quite literally prepared for anything. Many, like ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB), CNH Global NV (NYSE:CNH), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) actually melted-up in the triple digits.

Now, with the markets getting ready to roll over again, we're preparing to repeat the process if needed.

Fifth, watch people and travel if you can.
I got started people watching with my grandmother, Mimi. You've heard me talk about her before.

She was widowed at a young age and managed to turn a small life insurance settlement into the money she needed to live out her life in style by becoming an extremely savvy self-taught investor.

We used to go to malls, the country club and even to burger joints (her favorite) just to watch the sea of humanity that paraded in front of us.

At the time, I didn't really understand what she was looking for. Over the years, though, I began to understand Mimi was also watching how and what people bought.

Were they more interested in bulk purchases? Did they favor ultra-expensive goods or counterfeits? Were they paying in cash or whipping out credit cards?

She paid particular attention to folks she referred to as the "most important consumers on the planet"...our middle class. Mimi reasoned that what and where they were buying told her a lot more about the state of the economy than any "five dollar dandy" in a suit on Wall Street ever could.

To this day, that's why I watch the same- store sales for Wal- Mart (NYSE: WMT) and McDonalds Corp. (NYSE: MCD) very closely, among other data points .

And, when I'm travelling, I go out of my way to plunk down in a local shopping mall if I can.

Sometimes this involves luxury goods carried by those stores in Shanghai's Xintiandi shopping complex or along the Avenue des Champs-Elysees in Paris.

Other times, it's simply a Publix Market in Sarasota, FL, that catches my attention or the Vivre near our home in Kyoto.

Either way, the cross section of humanity I see helps me recognize patterns that, in turn, represent opportunities others don't yet see or recognize.

T here are all kinds of ways to spot the next big thing. No one data point is going to present the single "aha" you need, but together they may form a massive blinking sign.

I hope I'm smart enough to "see" it.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/05/29/five-ways-to-avoid-the-next-facebook-ipo-fiasco/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2011 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014