Stock Market Quiet Day...
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Aug 09, 2012 - 02:28 AM GMTBy: Jack_Steiman
That's not bad when you look back on it as those 60-minute short-term charts are unwinding nicely for the bulls without any real move down in price. Normally, that's a good thing as price is not being confirmed by declining oscillators. If the oscillators get back to neutral, or oversold, and there wasn't much erosion in price, another move higher is likely to ensue. So far so good, but there's still a chance for lower prices, and if that occurs, we will get near ,or at oversold, on those 60-minute charts, which would offer up more buying opportunities. There hasn't been much news globally of any significance the past few days, and it seems the quieter it is the more the market likes things these days.
Only when we start to hear the problems in the Eurozone do sellers seem to come in with any force. Quiet is somehow soothing for the bulls, and not so soothing for the bears as they get frustrated by how hard it is to sell this market even when there's bad news. They're more likely to give up their short positions when things get quite out of sheer frustration. It also keeps them from shorting very much as there just hasn't been any satisfaction bigger picture. Some inroads, but not what they would have expected. Can't blame them for their disappointments. I would be disappointed as well, if I was only playing the short side of this market.
Today was down decently early on and then nothing from nothing the rest of the day, with the overall market quiet as can be. If you study the MACD's, RSI's, and stochastics, you will see there has been a move from overbought to the neutral zone. 95 stochastics on the short-term charts are averaging near the 50 area. MACD's are getting back down with RSI's nowhere near 70 anymore. The coming days will be interesting to see, if we can attack that 3025 gap top, which would put the bears on the run if cleared. Not a bad day for the bulls at all today. That said, the market is still nowhere bigger picture.
The economic reports have slowed down quite a bit. That's probably good news for the bulls as it seems the majority of the recent important reports have been quite negative for the market one would have thought. No need to pile more on right here. The last ISM Manufacturing Report still showed an economy in contraction. Not by a lot, but contraction is still a recessionary number, and puts the Fed on QE3 watch. The Jobs Report was terrible from an increase in the level at 8.3%, even though more jobs were created. The Fed also backed off on his last statement about the imminent nature of more economic stimulus.
Although none of these poor events for the bulls killed the market, it's best to take a breather and see if the numbers that come in next month are any better, because, at some point, they better start improving, or the market will get in more of a foul mood. The earnings season has taken a lot of focus away from those economic reports, thankfully, as the distraction came in at just the right time. Since there have been many positive surprises in the earnings world this past quarter, it has taken some of the pressure off the bulls. There have been many disasters, but overall, the earnings season has been quite a decent surprise to the positive side. The next round of economic reports that are coming soon need to improve. The Disneyland journey can't go on forever unless things get better. I think!!
Try to keep in mind, folks, how good things can look one day, and how bad they can look the next. It is getting more exciting for the bulls here as we approach NDX 100 3025, or the top of the massive gap down from a few months back. We have taken out 3000 on the Nasdaq 100 and that was a great start, but please don't forget that things can turn down instantaneously with the wrong news. We have not broken through the top of the gap yet, so don't get overly optimistic quite yet. There's plenty of time for that when it happens, but until it does, you should not anticipate that it will. Anticipation has killed many a trader in this game. Don't be the next one on that list.
For now, all is fine, and we will watch to see if the bulls can capture 3025 with force and volume to confirm the breakout. Until then, one slow day at a time.
Peace,
Jack
Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.
Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!
© 2012 SwingTradeOnline.com
Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
