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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

UK Interest Rates Cut to 5.25% - Will Not Help the Housing Market

Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates Feb 07, 2008 - 01:59 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Interest-Rates Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to cut UK interest rates by a quarter point to 5.25% following on from data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. The rate cut would be inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008, following the US Panic rate cut 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5% which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to 3%


UK inflation, interest rate forecast 2008

Today's anticipated rate cut will confirm the trend towards 4.75% by September 2008. The most recent RPI and CPI data also confirm their respective trends for lower inflation going forward, inline with the November 2007 forecast - UK Inflation Forecast 2008 (RPI and CPI) . The decline in inflation is due to the slowing UK economy that is however expected to avoid a recession with a target end of year growth rate of 1.3%.

UK Money Supply 2008

Moderating UK money supply growth confirms a downward bias towards forward inflation, with money supply targeting 10% by November 2008, implying an RPI Inflation rate either at or below 3%.

Interest rates, US, UK, Eurozone

The ECB - Is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4% whilst still playing a wait and see game before taking rates lower. This despite clear evidence of economic slowdown across the euro zone as evidenced by the revision lower of the services PMI for January to 50.6 from an estimate of 52, with far sharper falls in the indices for some individual countries such as Spain. From a starting point of 4% the scope for Euro zone rate cuts is less as inflation is a higher concern at the ECB than the US Fed, which is determined to avert an recession during an US Presidential election year.

UK house price forecast 2008

UK Rate Cuts Will Not Stop House Prices From Falling

UK Interest rate cuts won't be of much help to home owners, due to the impact of the wealth effect going into reverse as house prices continue their month on month declines. For example on an average mortgage of £100k, a 0.25% cut in interest rates would result in a cut in monthly repayments of just £21. Whereas a decline in house prices of 0.5% per month results in a monthly loss of equity of £950 on an average £190,000 property. Therefore many market commentators and economists expecting a series of rate cuts to turn the UK housing market around may be surprised that the rate cuts will have very little impact on the weakening housing market, which is forecast to fall by 15% over 2 years as of August 2007 .

The impact of the interest rate cut on the UK housing market is further diminished due to the fact that mortgage lenders raised interest rates in the weeks preceding today's interest rate decision with a view to declaring a cut of 0.25% following the decision. However this means that the real cut compared to a few weeks earlier is negligible, if any at all ! (31st Jan 2008).

By Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 120 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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Comments

Paul T Huutchinson
11 Jan 09, 22:33
HPC

Very good, now please add Australia in your graph

Cheers, Paul T Hutchinson

Canberra Australia


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