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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Strong Despite US Dollar Strength

Commodities / Gold & Silver Feb 07, 2008 - 09:56 AM GMT

By: Mark_OByrne

Commodities Gold's recent sell off ended yesterday and gold was up $13.90  to $900.50 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 20 cents to $16.51 per ounce. Gold has continued to rally in Asia and early trading in Europe and is up to $908. Silver has also risen and is up to $16.68 per ounce.


Gold also rose in the other major currencies and rose to new near record highs in euros and sterling. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $908.25  (up from $892 yesterday). Gold fixed at £465.53 (up from £455.61 yesterday) and €620.516 (up from €610.88  yesterday).

Gold has strengthened materially despite the dollar also being strong which again shows that gold's bull market is not simply a function of dollar weakness. Increasing risk aversion is the order of the day and this can be seen in gold being well bid in the high $890's and in movements in currency markets (see FX).

The extent of the huge infrastructural challenges facing the South African mining industry is beginning to be realized by the marketplace. Development in South Africa are extremely important and will result in lower production of gold and particularly platinum in the coming weeks and months.

Markets await the U.S. jobless claims and home sales later today in order to gauge how sharply the U.S. economy has slowed down. Increasing volatility in international equity markets is leading to safe haven demand for gold.

FX
All eyes will be fixed on Central Banks today, with both the Bank of England and ECB due to announce on interest rates today. With the BOE expected to cut by 25 basis point and no change expected from the ECB, any deviation from this will be cause for a volatile afternoon in the FX markets. The ECB will hold a press conference after its announcement and the tone of this will be more important than the rate announcement itself. The BOE will issue a brief comment only if they move on rates, with the minutes of the meeting published two weeks from today.

Risk aversion continued to be a theme in the market and yet again the Japanese Yen was the main beneficiary. While it held steady against the US dollar, it fell heavily against the Euro, Sterling and high yielding currencies. Technically if the Euro finishes the week below 155.50 against the Yen, this will prove to be the lowest weekly close since September 2007, and confirm the bearish trend for this currency pair.

The South African Rand continues to be weak against the major currencies, as a result of power outages and more importantly, political and economic concerns. While the Rand can be seen as a commodity currency, it is still also an Emerging Market currency. Weakness here could be a sign of weakness unfolding in other Emerging Markets, we will watch these developments closely.

Support and Resistance
Strong support is at $850 to $860. Just because strong support is here does not mean that gold will reach these levels. Indeed there appears to be strong physical demand internationally for gold in the $890's.

Silver
Silver is trading at $16.65/70 at 1230GMT.

PGMs
Platinum has sold off from new record highs and is trading at $1847/1857 (1230GMT).

Palladium has also sold off and was trading at $423/429 an ounce (1230GMT).

By Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director

Gold Investments
63 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin 2
Ireland
Ph +353 1 6325010
Fax  +353 1 6619664
Email info@gold.ie
Web www.gold.ie
Gold Investments
Tower 42, Level 7
25 Old Broad Street
London
EC2N 1HN
United Kingdom
Ph +44 (0) 207 0604653
Fax +44 (0) 207 8770708
Email info@www.goldassets.co.uk
Web www.goldassets.co.uk

 

Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. have been awarded the MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analyst of 2006.

Mission Statement
Gold and Silver Investments Limited hope to inform our clientele of important financial and economic developments and thus help our clientele and prospective clientele understand our rapidly changing global economy and the implications for their livelihoods and wealth.
We focus on the medium and long term global macroeconomic trends and how they pertain to the precious metal markets and our clienteles savings, investments and livelihoods. We emphasise prudence, safety and security as they are of paramount importance in the preservation of wealth.

Financial Regulation: Gold & Silver Investments Limited trading as Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator as a multi-agency intermediary. Our Financial Regulator Reference Number is 39656. Gold Investments is registered in the Companies Registration Office under Company number 377252 . Registered for VAT under number 6397252A . Codes of Conduct are imposed by the Financial Regulator and can be accessed at www.financialregulator.ie or from the Financial Regulator at PO Box 9138, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Property, Commodities and Precious Metals are not regulated by the Financial Regulator

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

All the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Gold & Silver Investments Limited and not those of the Perth Mint. They do not reflect the views of the Perth Mint and the Perth Mint accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Mark O'Byrne Archive

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