Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Investment decisions based on the Business Cycle and Sector Rotation

InvestorEducation / Investing Feb 20, 2007 - 10:23 AM GMT

By: Hans_Wagner

InvestorEducation The business cycle is a long-term pattern of changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that follows four stages: expansion, prosperity, contraction, and recession. After a recessionary phase, the expansionary phase can start again. The phases of the business cycle are characterized by changing employment, industrial productivity, and interest rates. Some economists believe that stock price trends precede business cycle stages. As a result the economic cycle provides the strategic framework for economic activity and investing. The business cycle affects employees, employers and investors. For example:


  • The economy is strong; people are employed and making money. Demand for goods -- food, consumer appliances, electronics, and services -- increases to the point where it outstrips supply. This demand fuels a rise in prices, or inflation.

  • As prices increase, people ask for higher wages. Higher employment costs translate into higher prices for goods, fueling an upward spiral effect.

  • When prices get too high, consumers decide goods are too expensive and demand decreases. When demand decreases, companies lay off workers because they don't need to make as many goods or provide as much service.

  • Decreasing demand fuels declining prices, which means the economy is in a recession.

  • Lower prices spur demand. As demand picks up, people begin buying again, fueling the need for greater supply. And the cycle goes back to the beginning.

When the business cycle doesn't run smoothly, it can have consequences as disastrous as the Great Depression. That's why governments intervene to try to manage the economy. For example, if it appears that inflation is rising too quickly, the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the U.S. charged with handling monetary policy) may decide to raise interest rates to curtail spending. On the other hand, if the economy is performing poorly, the government may lower taxes to spur consumption and investment.

Interest rates and the yield curve play a very important role in determining economic activity and the performance of the stock market. Higher interest rates increase the costs to businesses and individuals. Companies must pay more to borrow money for capital investments or to fund daily business operations. Individuals pay more for mortgages as well as other loans they may take out to purchase products. Higher interest rates also increase the demand for money to invest in bonds taking money that could or was invested in the stock market.

The yield curve is a plot of the yield on bonds with the same credit quality across different maturities (the link above provides an interesting interactive model of the "living" yield curve). The basic assumption is you get more interest on your investment in a bond by holding it longer. The theory states there is more risk for holding a bond for 10 years than for 5 years, or for 5 years than for 90 days. Bloomberg provides an current chart of the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries at  Bloomberg .

As the economy grows and expands the Federal Reserve usually raises interest rates to try to control inflation. When the economy contracts the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to try to stimulate demand by lowering the costs of borrowing. If you hear that the Federal open market Committee (FOMC) has raised or lowered rates, they are really raising or lowering the federal funds rate for banks. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

The business cycle has implications for markets and investors. Broadly, a recession often corresponds with a sustained period of weak stock prices, or a bear market. And a healthy, expanding economy that keeps inflation from rising too quickly often corresponds with a bull market, or period of sustained market growth.

Fortunately, there are investment strategies for all parts of the cycle, thanks to the diverse economy we have. Companies that do well when the economy is experiencing good times are called cyclical stocks. Industries that fall under this group include travel and leisure companies, airlines, consumer electronics firms and jewelry makers. Companies that make goods that are necessities, such as food and health care are called non-cyclical stocks. These stocks tend to provide more stability during an economic downturn. During an economic expansion one should invest in cyclical stocks. On the other hand during an economic contraction one should consider investing in non-cyclical stocks.

Sam Stovall's Sector Investing, 1996 states that different sectors are stronger at different points along the business cycle. The table below describes this theoretical model throughout the business cycle.

Stage:
Consumer Expectations:
Industrial Production:
Interest Rates:
Yield Curve:

Full Recession 
Reviving
Bottoming Out
Falling
Normal

Early Recovery 
Rising
Rising
Bottoming Out
Normal (Steep)

Full Recovery 
Declining
Flat
Rising Rapidly (Fed)
Flattening Out

Early Recession 
Falling Sharply
Falling
Peaking
Flat/Inverted

The graph below, courtesy of StockCharts.com , shows these relationships and the order the key sectors respond to the economic cycle. The Stock Market Cycle precedes the Economic Cycle as investors try to anticipate how the market will react to the changes to the economy.

Sector Rotation Model:
Sector Rotation Model:

Legend: Market Cycle Economic Cycle

The hard part in all this is identifying where the economy is in the business cycle. As you might realize this is no easy matter and many economists get it wrong. There are many indicators that get published on a regular basis that people use to monitor the economy. Unfortunately, there isn't a simple way to make this strategic decision. The best policy is to not try to predict the business cycle, but rather to monitor the economy looking for signs that it is changing direction. The change in direction takes many months so you have time to make your observations. Keep in mind that the stock market is considered a leading indicator and will attempt to forecast that the economy is beginning to level off or contract and pull back. Unfortunately, these can be false indications as well.

As an investor I seek to understand where we are in the business cycle to help guide me where to look for opportunities. However, I do not try to forecast the cycle since I realize I am no better than many economists who make it a full time job to make these predictions. In fact, if a good opportunity shows up in my scans and it is from a sector that is out of cycle, I will still consider it in my evaluation. However, sector rotation can produce excellent opportunities and must be carefully examined when evaluating the business cycle. Just keep in mind that many investors and gurus are wrong when they claim that we are entering an new stage in the business cycle. This is an art based on experience much more than it is a science.

 

By Hans Wagner
tradingonlinemarkets.com

My Name is Hans Wagner and as a long time investor, I was fortunate to retire at 55. I believe you can employ simple investment principles to find and evaluate companies before committing one's hard earned money. Recently, after my children and their friends graduated from college, I found my self helping them to learn about the stock market and investing in stocks. As a result I created a website that provides a growing set of information on many investing topics along with sample portfolios that consistently beat the market at http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com/


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules