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Gold Seasonality Chart Shows November as Strongest Month

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Nov 05, 2012 - 04:53 AM GMT

By: Jason_Hamlin

Commodities

In statistics, many time series exhibit cyclic variation known as seasonality. For precious metals investors, understanding seasonality can help to determine when to buy and sell at optimal price points. Analysts often mention gold’s seasonality and refer to the “Summer doldrums” as a buying opportunity and the Winter months as the high season. To verify gold’s seasonality and identify opportunities to profit from the trends, I decided to update the data and charts that I had originally created a few years ago. The new chart has some variations from the past, but the overall trends remain mostly the same.


The Winter months remain the strongest seasonal period for gold, particularly November through February. The Summer months tend to be the weakest seasonal period for gold, with the month of June showing the only average decline. May and September are anomalies, when the gold price tends to advance strongly during these months, but not in the immediate month before or after.

Heading into the first full week of November, the charts suggest that investors can expect the gold price to advance sharply this month and continue higher through February of next year. This is partly due to gold dowries for marriages in India, as this period is considered a lucky time of the year to get married.

Of course, these data points are averages are there are always variations and outliers. Nevertheless, this is an important tool that investors may find beneficial in deciding the best time to buy more gold or take some profits off the table.

If you would like to view which stocks we are holding in the Gold Stock Bull portfolio at the current time, get the contrarian newsletter and receive email alerts whenever we are buying or selling, click here to sign up for the premium membership.

By Jason Hamlin

http://www.goldstockbull.com/

Jason Hamlin is the founder of Gold Stock Bull and publishes a monthly contrarian newsletter that contains in-depth research into the markets with a focus on finding undervalued gold and silver mining companies. The Premium Membership includes the newsletter, real-time access to the model portfolio and email trade alerts whenever Jason is buying or selling. You can try it for just $35/month by clicking here.

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All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


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