Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

U.S. Dollar Technical Analysis and Trend Forecast 2013

Currencies / US Dollar Nov 08, 2012 - 01:28 PM GMT

By: David_Petch

Currencies

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNo surprise, Barrack Obama handily one the US election, which means that with silly season over, they voted the same rascals back into the White House instead of a different batch of rascals. In the end, Mickey Mouse or the Pope could have been stuck into power in the US, the fate of the currency was baked in the cake a long time ago and we are simply following the cycle path. Today's update will provide some clarity regarding the US Dollar Index, as the developing pattern is somewhat recognizable (Refer to Figure 7).


As side note, I probably will not be posting a US Dollar update on the web for sometime, as the turning point is nearing....maybe after the future bottom is put in place,we will come out after the fact. Future once per month releases onto the web will include S&P 500 Index, HUI, energy and XOI, Gold and related ratios etc.

Currencies
The daily chart of the Canadian Dollar Index is shown below, with lower Bollinger bands in close proximity to each other beneath the current price, suggestive that a bottom was put in place. Upper Bollinger bands are still above the current price and require another 2-3 weeks before a clear indication of an uptrend in the Loonie commences. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K trend in stochastics 1 and 2 suggest at least 2-3 weeks before crossing above the %D to indicate a change in trend. Upside in the Loonie over the next 6-8 months is any where from $1.11-1.13, down 3 cents from our initial target. So far, the expected pattern of the CFS is playing out. The inverse head and shoulders pattern that potentially is forming has a short-term upside target of $1.05
Figure 1

The daily chart of the Australian Dollar Index is shown below, with all three lower Bollinger bands beneath the index, suggestive that a bottom was put in place. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and 2 and beneath the %D in 3. With the %K in stochastic 3 curling up, it suggests that a multi-month uptrend is about to commence.

Figure 2

The daily chart of the Euro Index is shown below, with lower 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands in close proximity to each other beneath the current price, suggestive that further downside is looming. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K trend in stochastic 2 suggests another 2-3 weeks before a bottom is put in place. An inverted head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming, with an upside target of $1.30. Going forward 6-8 months out, expect the Euro to rise to $1.46 – 1.48.

Figure 3

US Dollar Index

The daily chart of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price, suggestive that further upside is looming. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K trend in stochastic 2 suggests that another 2-3 weeks of time is required before a top is put in place.

Figure 4

The weekly chart of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with all three upper Bollinger bands in close proximity to each other, suggestive that a mid-term top was put in place earlier this summer. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. Extrapolation of the %K trend in stochastics 2 and 3 suggest that a bottom may not be put in place for at least another 8-10 months (looking for late July 2013). One important thing to note is that a bottom in the US Dollar will coincide with tops in commodities, broad stock markets and other currencies.

Figure 5

The monthly chart of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with lower 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands in close proximity to each other, suggestive that a 1996 style uptrend or late 2006 downtrend is approaching...I am leaning towards the 2006 style of decline based upon positioning of stochastic on the weekly chart. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in 1 and 2 and beneath the %D in 3. The monthly chart does not really provide any indication of weakness just yet, but the %K in stochastic 1 is approaching critical resistance. At some point within the next 30 days, a top will have been put in the US Dollar.

Figure 6

The short-term Elliott Wave count of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. I was looking for a diametric triangle, but recent timing of the uptrend invalidated this thought. As it stands, a flat (3-3-5) is thought to be forming at present, with wave [c] beyond the 100% equivalency level of wave [a] it appears that an elongated flat pattern is forming, with the 1.618x level at 81.48, just below the expected high the US Dollar can reach based upon the pattern forming. On very important observation Glenn Neely made with his NeoWave is that elongated triangles will often form either one leg or a segment of the first wave of a triangle. As per Figure 8, this ties in well with the hypothesis that an expanding triangle is likely to form between now and 2020. At present, waves [a] and [b] are nearly equivalent in time, which suggests wave [c] at present will be equal to [a] + [b]. Based upon this, a top is not expected for at least 2 weeks, with the potential to extend out to 3 weeks. Once complete, expect wave C.(A) down to start, with at least 2-3 months of downside, followed by 2-3 months of sideways to upward price action, with one final down leg to the 70-72 area no later than the end of July 2013.Based upon this chart, the US Dollar is likely to remain in wave [c] until the end of this month before topping out and declining in wave C.(A).

Figure 7

The long-term Elliott Wave count of the US Dollar Index is shown below, with the thought pattern forming denoted in green. Wave [A] is described as having an (A)-(B)-(C) structure, but this may require modification to (W)-(X)-(Y). Or...wave A is actually wave (A), wave B is actually wave (B) and wave C becomes wave (C). Time considerations fit with the latter, so future updates with a modified Primary Degree (Purple) may be seen. A bottom in the current downward trend is not expected to base until late July 2013, which will be followed by a very sharp upward move in the US Dollar to anywhere from 88-90 from late July 2013 until late in 2014. This period of time is going to be extremely difficult for everyone globally, as the short, but intense period of deflation will hit pension funds, putting many into non-existence. More and more people rely on the government, which is why more and more people have their hand out for government programs. This all costs money and in the end, the safety nets of society will be cut and then family will become very important. I can not stress how important owning gold and silver bullion is going forward, as it will literally help people live and even retire. Balance ownership of gold and silver bullion with precious metal shares. PM stocks are so dirt cheap right now that we probably have seen lows for the next 20 years (Refer to stock picks from a few weeks ago on the site archive). Levels at present are cheaper that 2008 on a relative basis to the price of gold, so carefully pick stocks that pay dividends, along with up and coming producers. Five to 8 years from now, PM stocks will be much higher than present levels.

Figure 8

That is all for today...back tomorrow with an update of gold and related ratios. Have a great day. At the request of a few micro mining companies we are trying to structure and assimilate legal forms, swing move dates, projections etc. for aiding in timing future financing to minimize shareholder dilution, so more information on this hopefully will be available in the future.

For contact information or to make suggests, criticisms etc. (all comments welcome and will be responded to, simply email accounts@treasurechests.info

Have a great day.

By David Petch

http://www.treasurechests.info

I generally try to write at least one editorial per week, although typically not as long as this one. At www.treasurechests.info , once per week (with updates if required), I track the Amex Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, US Dollar Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index and the S&P 500 Index using various forms of technical analysis, including Elliott Wave. Captain Hook the site proprietor writes 2-3 articles per week on the “big picture” by tying in recent market action with numerous index ratios, money supply, COT positions etc. We also cover some 60 plus stocks in the precious metals, energy and base metals categories (with a focus on stocks around our provinces).

With the above being just one example of how we go about identifying value for investors, if this is the kind of analysis you are looking for we invite you to visit our site and discover more about how our service can further aid in achieving your financial goals. In this regard, whether it's top down macro-analysis designed to assist in opinion shaping and investment policy, or analysis on specific opportunities in the precious metals and energy sectors believed to possess exceptional value, like mindedly at Treasure Chests we in turn strive to provide the best value possible. So again, pay us a visit and discover why a small investment on your part could pay you handsome rewards in the not too distant future.

And of course if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms regarding the above, please feel free to drop us a line . We very much enjoy hearing from you on these items.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities as we are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute "forward-looking statements" with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

Copyright © 2012 treasurechests.info Inc. All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by treasurechests.info Inc. No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

David Petch Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules